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NBA PLAYOFFS.....................2015

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Posted: #1
Are you ready to rumble, it's playoff time !!.........................

Let's check-in with  the "key stat battles" those are the battles that have a high correlation to winning games and predictive value going forward.

POWER RATINGS 1...............................................
This PR is a bit stronger towards FG  % which has the highest correlation to victory and predictive value.

We'll use this rating to get my lines.

These won't change throughout the playoffs, but we will run the PR for playoffs only before the start of  the finals.

1. Warriors 10.76
2. Clippers 6.03
3. Spurs 6.01
4. Hawks 4.93
5. Blazers 4.17
6. Bulls 3.51
7. Cavs 3.44
8. Rockets 2.81
9. Wiz 2.57
10. Grizz 2.49
11. Raptors 2.37
12. Mavs 2.03
13. Bucks 1.15
14. Pelicans .81
15. Celtics (-.7)
16. Nets (-2.61)

Warriors playing on an all-time level, they rate higher then every NBA Champ since 1974 except 2 teams.

My lines add 4 points to the home team for game 1.
 As the series progress we'll follow rules as to how to apply my lines in games 2 - 7.

Largest mismatch this round.......................

Warriors by 9.95 over Pelicans

2cd largest Hawks by 7.54 over Nets

Closest matchup this round, possible upsets .......................
Clips .02 over Spurs
Wiz by .2 over Raptors
 
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Posted: #2
My Lines for game 1...................................

Warriors -13.95
Rockets -4.78
Clippers -4.02
Grizz -2.32


Hawks -11.54
Cavs - 8.14
Bulls -6.36
Raptors -3.8

With a 1 point difference to the closing line we have a play.
 
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Posted: #3
Now keep in mind these ratings do not take injuries into consideration, these ratings are representive of how each team played over the entire season.

Both the Spurs and Cavs didn't play very well early on but played far better coming into the playoffs.

Let's look at which teams showed the largest improvements in their PR over the last 30 games ..........................................

Spurs +2.26
Cavs +1.92

These 2 teams improved themselves far more than any other team.

Clippers +.67
Bulls +.23

These teams played  worse the last 30 games..........................

Blazers -.16
Rockets -.22
Warriors -.42
Raptors -1.06
Wiz -1.08
Grizz -1.6
Hawks -1.91
Mavs -2.66


The Spurs Power Rating 1 over the last 30 games was 9.58
Cavs 6.73

And both teams displayed the common denominators of past champs.

Neither of those teams as good as they've played over 30 games can match what the Warriors did over 82 games, and playing 30 games is a far cry to playing at that level for 82 games as the Warriors have done.


 
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Posted: #4
lock and load girl !!
 
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POWER RATINGS II...............................................

This PR is a bit more rebound heavy, rebounding has the 2cd highest correlation to victory.

Comparing the two PR helps us find teams well-balanced. 

1. Warriors 54.96
2. Spurs 53.36
3. Clippers 52.77
4. Blazers 52.22
5. Cavs 52.19
6. Bulls 52.04
7. Wiz 51.72
8. Rockets 51.5
9. Hawks 51.4
10. Grizz 51.39
11. Raptors 51.06
12. Pelicans 51.02
13. Bucks 50.23
14. Mavs 50.17
15. Celtics 49.69
16. Nets 47.88

Largest mismatch this round...............................

Warriors by by 3.94 over Pelicans

2cd largest... Hawks by 3,52 over Nets


Closest matchups this round, possible upsets...................................

Wiz by .22 over Raptors
Spurs by .59 over Clippers
 
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Posted: #6
not sure if you have more posts with rankings coming..??.....but taking into consideration all your ratings/rankings that use stats correlating to championship winners who do say has the strongest chance to win??..warriors i guess?
i know you are clearly a big stats guy but do you personally put any weight yourself on human element and opinion/observation of current circumstance??..like,for example,how much do the warriors lose in comparison to the spurs?given that we know one is a savvy,veteran ball-club that has been here together countless times while the other has never even sniffed conference finals in recent memory..i realise this is difficult to quantify but how much does it affect your opinion of warriors chances.

cheers for sharing all the stuff from your crazy stats lab,much appreciated mate!!
 
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LARGEST MISMATCHES.............................................

Power Ratings 1.........Warriors over Pelicans
Power Rating II..........Warriors over Pelicans

FG%......Warriors 47.8%-42.8% = 5% over Pelicans 45.7%-45.6%=.1%

Warriors by 4.9%

Total Team Efficiency ..................this includes 2 pt, 3pt , FT, TO....

Warriors by 5.74 over Pelicans

Value Ratings Mismatch...............
Value tells us which teams are playing better than their point margins, therefore better than they look.

Wiz by 2.48 over Raptors


We have 2 largest mismacth teams this round Warriors and Wizards...............

Here's the deal............these teams ..................

Back these teams in every game of the series and rarely do they finish with a losing ATS record, and the very few who have were just 1 game under .500.

off a SU loss..................8-1 ATS last season and an insane 22-3 ATS the past 5 years.

off 2 ATS losses ....... also a strong play, I'll try to get around to the records but very busy

off 3 ATS wins.....is the worst spot.
 
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Posted: #8
AVE of both PR, FG%, total team efficiency and value.

Warriors by 5.03 
Hawks by 3.6
Cavs by 1.79
Wiz by 1.04
Blazers by .67
Bulls by .58
Rockets by .53
Clippers by .05


Warriors/Pelicans are by far the largest mismatch this round.

We have 3 dogs in series odds that are favored by small amounts here and very well could pull off the upset.

Both the Rockets and Bulls are just small favorites here which could indicate upsets as well.

There almost certainly will be some upsets amoung these 5 series. 
 
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Posted: #9
CLAW
 
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Posted: #10
Quote Originally Posted by melossinglet:

not sure if you have more posts with rankings coming..??.....but taking into consideration all your ratings/rankings that use stats correlating to championship winners who do say has the strongest chance to win??..warriors i guess?
i know you are clearly a big stats guy but do you personally put any weight yourself on human element and opinion/observation of current circumstance??..like,for example,how much do the warriors lose in comparison to the spurs?given that we know one is a savvy,veteran ball-club that has been here together countless times while the other has never even sniffed conference finals in recent memory..i realise this is difficult to quantify but how much does it affect your opinion of warriors chances.

cheers for sharing all the stuff from your crazy stats lab,much appreciated mate!!

I don't use opinion, I've found when I try that I can't beat the stats over time.

I use history and how things have played-out over history as my guide.

I've been doing this stuff for 30 years and have found that experience is not as important as playing well, less experienced teams playing better beat experienced teams all the time.

For example, the Spurs won titles when they were amoung the best teams in the league  and did not win when they were not. 

They won more titles then other teams because they had more seasons playing on a very high level then other teams do.

When the Spurs lost to the 8th seed Grizz they were amoung the worst no.1 seeds in history,  all their experience did not help them when they were playing poorly.

But the Spurs were a strong team when the pounded the Grizz 4-0 in conference finals a couple of years ago.

When the no.1 seeded  67 win Mavs lost to Warriors  in the opening round they ranked 2cd to last in FG% differential of all the 65 game winners over history.

Many, many things  like this over history that help guide me to reach conclusions.


I'd say it's a 2 horse race between Warriors and Spurs, but I'd favor the Warriors ,  with the Clippers and Cavs a level below those 2 teams.

It's very unlikely any other team will win the title.


 
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Posted: #11
Good stuff, Claw. Good luck with your picks. 
 
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Posted: #12
Sounds logical
 
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Posted: #13
GL
 
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Posted: #14
Quote Originally Posted by theclaw:


I don't use opinion, I've found when I try that I can't beat the stats over time.

I use history and how things have played-out over history as my guide.

I've been doing this stuff for 30 years and have found that experience is not as important as playing well, less experienced teams playing better beat experienced teams all the time.

For example, the Spurs won titles when they were amoung the best teams in the league  and did not win when they were not. 

They won more titles then other teams because they had more seasons playing on a very high level then other teams do.

When the Spurs lost to the 8th seed Grizz they were amoung the worst no.1 seeds in history,  all their experience did not help them when they were playing poorly.

But the Spurs were a strong team when the pounded the Grizz 4-0 in conference finals a couple of years ago.

When the no.1 seeded  67 win Mavs lost to Warriors  in the opening round they ranked 2cd to last in FG% differential of all the 65 game winners over history.

Many, many things  like this over history that help guide me to reach conclusions.


I'd say it's a 2 horse race between Warriors and Spurs, but I'd favor the Warriors ,  with the Clippers and Cavs a level below those 2 teams.

It's very unlikely any other team will win the title.



 
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Posted: #15
Baron von Raschke says hello and best wishes! The Claw Master
 
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Since 1984 the year the league expanded to 16 playoff teams............. no.1 seeds won the series 92% in round 1.

No. 2 seeds 92%
No. 3 seeds 73%
No. 4 seeds 47%,  5 seeds have won more series than 4 seeds.

20 of the past 31 titles have been won by a no. 1 seed. 

Almost double the no. of titles won by no. 1 seeds than all other seeds combined.

The Warriors as of April 3rd were 20-4 VS teams 2-9 in the West.
3 of their 4 losses were without Bogurt. They lost 1 game back in Nov.

Bogurt  is one of the best rim protectors in the league, has one of the best defensive ratings in the league and the Warriors are ranked very high defensive efficiency with Bogurt in the line-up.

Good Lock Pelicans ......................................
 
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Posted: #17
Good luck
 
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Posted: #18
Quote Originally Posted by theclaw:

LARGEST MISMATCHES.............................................

Power Ratings 1.........Warriors over Pelicans
Power Rating II..........Warriors over Pelicans

FG%......Warriors 47.8%-42.8% = 5% over Pelicans 45.7%-45.6%=.1%

Warriors by 4.9%

Total Team Efficiency ..................this includes 2 pt, 3pt , FT, TO....

Warriors by 5.74 over Pelicans

Value Ratings Mismatch...............
Value tells us which teams are playing better than their point margins, therefore better than they look.

Wiz by 2.48 over Raptors


We have 2 largest mismacth teams this round Warriors and Wizards...............

Here's the deal............these teams ..................

Back these teams in every game of the series and rarely do they finish with a losing ATS record, and the very few who have were just 1 game under .500.

off a SU loss..................8-1 ATS last season and an insane 22-3 ATS the past 5 years.

off 2 ATS losses ....... also a strong play, I'll try to get around to the records but very busy

off 3 ATS wins.....is the worst spot.


First game of playoffs coming-up, we back the Wiz in every game with a small play and up the plays after any  SU loss - best bet - and after 2 ATS losses.

Wiz +4 over Raptors --- 3.3 units

 
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Posted: #19
blazers and bulls better than the cavs?
 
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Posted: #20
thanks claw,  will use the info to pick my games. Thanks for sharing. much appreciative
 
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Posted: #21
Nice to get off to a good start, looks like we'll get the first game. 

Warriors -12 over Pelicans --- 3.3 units to win 3 units
 
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Posted: #22
My lines Bulls -6.36, with the line 7.5 to 8 we'll make a small play on the Bucks. 

Rose is back and maybe the Bulls are better then my line gives them credit, but I'll stick with the info.

Bucks +8 over Bulls --- 1.1 unit
 
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We're off to a slow start, 1-4 ATS with a 1 point diff to the closing line.

We'll stay the coarse with a very small play  and should bounce back..............................

My Line --- Bulls -6.36

Actual line 7.5 - 8.

Bucks +8  over Bulls --- 1.1 units  
 
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Largest mismatches 1-1  ATS

We''l side again with the Warriors.......................

Warriors -13 over Pelicans --- 3.3 units
 
 
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