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NBA PLAYOFFS.....................2015

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Legend
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Posted: #176
 
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Posted: #177
Yea, it's pretty dreadful, however, we will bounce back more than likely. 

Some strong situations are looking good soon, we'll see if they get set-up perfect or not.
 
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Posted: #178
MY LINE .... game 3

Rockets -.05 over Warriors

Teams down 0-2 get 4 additional desperation points.

With a 1 pt diff to closing line and trailing in the series , trailing by 2 games in the series, off a SU loss we back the Rockets tonight....if the line stays at Warriors -1 or better to give us a 1 pt diff to closing line.

Will make a 5 unit play on the game and a 2 unit 1st half play.
 
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Posted: #179
Wow, the line skyrocketed late, I saw it hit Rockets -1 in which case we had no play.

But here on covers they have the closing line at Rockets -1.5, I did not see it hit -1.5 but then again I was to busy leading up to game time.

At Rockets -1.5 we have a 1 pt diff backing Warriors, but not sure if that was the case at many different books to be a good solid consensus.


MY LINE.....game 4

Rockets trail by 3 games but that's off-set by Warriors being in a close-out game...............no additional pts.

Warriors -3.95 over Rockets

No.1 rated powerhouse teams like the Warriors are very strong plays in close-out games.

 They are 2-0 ATS thus far, the best-bet would be in a 2cd close-out game which would be back home in game 5 if Rockets can win game 4.

 If we can get the right situation with the right line we back the Warriors with a best bet play.

As of now I'd side with the Warriors game 4, with a possible best bet game 5.


 
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Posted: #180
Who do you like for Cavs/Hawks game tonight?
 
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Posted: #181
With all the injuries piling-up I passed on the Hawks/Cavs game 3. I would of still had a lean on the Hawks, but go's to show pass on the game and now they cover and why we stay the coarse with the info.

Would lean Hawks again game 5 but may not take any action.

I would lean Warriors in a close-out game but may pass , but the better play would be Rockets winning game 4 and back Warriors in game 5. 

We saw the Warriors in game 3 play very focused and deterimined to clean-up those careless TO and defensive lapses  and such as they had in games 1 and 2 when they were in position to blow the game open.

Whether they can match that in back-to-back games may be another thing. Teams often get complacent off easy wins and with a 3-0 lead, and not likely Harden goes 3 of 15 or whatever it was again.

And with the line up to Warriors -5 that's a huge swing of 6.5 pts off the closing line of Warriors +1.5 in game 3.

Chances are the book is also very aware of strong teams like the Warriors in close-out games as are the sharps , hence the line moving up to -5.

I have seen many times in my days a team off a 3-0 lead get the line jack-up on the road and win but not cover, I'd be a bit concerned about that and may just pass on this game.

The better situation may be waiting till game 5..... if we get there.... and with Warriors off a SU loss and 0-2 ATS at home and the Rockets having come-back down 3-1 last series we may get a better line for game 5 and the public may bite that line for an much better situation.

The best thing for the Warriors may be to lose SU here to gain some value in the line going forward into the finals.

Warriors may be motivated by Cavs 3-0 lead and not wanting Irving to get more rest.


 
Captain
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Posted: #182
The NBA Finals start a week Thursday regardless of when these conference finals series end, so Kyrie is getting the same amount of recovery time no matter what
 
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Posted: #183
Will pass on Cavs/Hawks game 4, to many injuries. Would lean the Hawks.

Would lean the under may take a small 1 unit play on the under  196, buy the half point if needed. 


Will be on the Warriors game 5 , looks to be a strong situation with a 1 pt diff to closing line off a SU and ATS loss and having a losing record ATS in home games 1 and 2.


 
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Posted: #184
Best bet play on the Warriors tonight in game 5, wait-out the line. If it goes to 9.5 buy the half point to 9.
 
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Posted: #185
MY LINE.....Warriors -11.95

We need a 1 pt diff to the closing line to have a best bet play.

We need the closing line to be 10.5 or under. Seems 10 is about where the line gets even action, a few books did drop to 9.5 with heavier juice on the Warriors but they went back to 10. 

And the 10.5's seem to go back to 10 , not to 11. So it appears we should get the 1 pt diff, but wait-out the line, if it drops to 9.5 I'd buy the half point to 9 -120 or -125 for a 12 unit or 12.5 unit play to win 10 units.

Other then that I'd lay the 10 to win 10 units

Warriors -6 1st half  buy the half point if needed, to win 3 units.
 
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Posted: #186
It looks like 9.5 everywhere now, with Bovada heavier juice on the Rockets, this line may go lower, wait it out.

-6 1st half as well.

I saw game 1 finals line dropped to Warriors -5.5

We have a very good situation, if Warriors win SU but don't cover we come with a best bet play on Warriors game 1.

If Warriors lose SU, we come with a play of the year on Warriors game 6 of at least 15 units.

If the Warriors win and cover we have a golden oppurtunity to come with another best bet game 1 and hit back-to-back best bets.

I would consider putting a small bet on Warriors game 1 -5.5, if Warriors pound the Rockets as they certainly might go back up again to 6 or higher.
 
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Posted: #187
I'd grab the 9 now, looks like 2 books went back to 10 and the 9.5's are evenly juiced, not likely it drops to 9 or lower.
 
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Posted: #188
I did take Warriors -5 bought the half point for game 1 in finals, to win 2.5 units.

If Warriors lose tonight and that line drops I'll make another 2.5 unit play and a play of the year on Warriors game 6, but highly unlikely we get there, but this is a strong oppurtunity with little downside risk when we include the upcoming games into tonight's game, don't let this oppurtunity pass you by without scoring off it.

Good Luck and enjoy the game................................
 
Captain
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Posted: #189
Great win, tonight, bro. I've been with ya. Let's win some more money in the finals!!
 
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Posted: #190
One best bet in the books, one more to go..............................
 
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Posted: #191
Quote Originally Posted by linewatcher:

Great win, tonight, bro. I've been with ya. Let's win some more money in the finals!!

 
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Posted: #192
NBA FINALS

Cavs seem to be playing much better then the season long PR's say they are, but we know as a team playing together for the first time it may take time to gel. We will give the Cavs their PR after the all-star break for both PR's.

POWER RATINGS 1................................................

Warriors 10.76
Cavs 6.73

Warriors by 4.03

Teams rated over 8 are 10-1 at winning the series, 90.9%.
The only loser, LBJ and his 2011 Heat.

1980-2014.........teams better by 1.25 are 20-4 at winning the series 83.3%.

Teams below 1 are 3-5 at winning the series.


POWER RATINGS II.................................................

Warriors 54.96
Cavs 53.8

Warriors by 1.16

1974 -2014..............teams better by .75 or better.......22-5 at winning the series, 81.5%.

Teams below .5 are 5-3 at winning the series, 62.5%.



BOTH POWER RATINGS COMBINED.............................

Warriors by 5.19

Since 1980 teams better by 2 are .....19-3 at winning the series, 86.4%.

Teams under 2 are............6-7 at winning the series 46.2%


BALANCE BETWEEN BOTH POWER RATINGS........................

Teams 1.25 better in PR 1 and .75 better in PR II are .............17-3 at winning the series, 85%.

Since both PR's measure and carry different weight for key stat battles this gives us a good idea of a teams weakness that may play into another teams strength.

We don't find it here with Warriors superior in each PR.

Teams better in both PR's combined but below 1.25 in PR 1 and below .75 in PR II are 2-6 at winning the series, 25%



More to come....................................




 
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Posted: #193
Beautiful stuff amigo. Looking forward to the plays. We'll have to keep a lookingout for Olay Thompson and Kylie Irvings health. 
 
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Posted: #194
PLAYOFFS ONLY POWER RATING.......................................

Cavs 66.6
Warriors 64.83

Cavs by 1.77

The better team is 10-3 at winning the series since 2001 but not including 2009 which for some reason I did not run the stats at the time. Someday I'll look it up.

Cavs did play better then Warriors, this does not include strength of schedule.

Let's look at the area where the Cavs had a big advantage over the Warriors in the playoffs.

REBOUNDING...............................................

Cavs 53.16 %
Warriors 51.87%

Since 2001 we've had 4 teams over 53% that were at least 1% better than their opponent in the playoffs, they are 1-3 at winning the series.

That's a small sample size but it's really not because over history dominating reb alone does not produce NBA titles, when reb are considered it's just important to ....not be a weak reb team.........which the Warriors are not.

Shooting effeciency is the most important part of basketball, teams need to maker shots while not being a weak rebounding team.

When we look at 2 pt, 3 pt, FT's with TO's  added ......................Cavs out-shot opp in the playoffs by 3.36%...........Warriors by 3.24 %.

Almost dead-even, Cavs did not create a big advantage here.

Since 2001 there have been 6 teams out-shot their opps in the playoffs  by over 1%, those teams are 5-1 at winning the series.

And 2 of those teams happened to be 2 of the 4 road teams that pulled upsets since 2001, not the Cavs here.

2006 Heat out-shot opps by 3.06% to Mavs .35%

2001 MAVS 4.22% to the Heats 2.88%


Now, let's dig deeper, of the 10 wins by playoff only PR, 6 teams were better in both regular   season PR"S and playoff PR  and not surprisingly  went 6-0 at winning the series.

That leaves us 7  matchups where regular season and playoff PR were on opposite teams...........playoff power rating went 4-3 at winning the series.

Let's look at these 7 matchups, in the 4 playoff PR wins the regular season PR were very close, combining to be under 2, in 3 of the 4 wins,  which under 2  is just 6-7 at winning the series since 1980, being under 2 is not a strong advantage of one team over the other.

The only team over 2 that lost was , LBJ and his 2011 Heat.................

PR 1....Heat better by 3.25.....PR II ... Heat better by 2.12 = 5.37..................ave of 2.69 per PR.

Playoff only Mavs better by 3.37

If we gave the same weight  to each regular season and playoff PR we have Mavs by .68

If we do this with every series since 2001 but not including 2009, we have an 11-1 record at winning the series..................91.7%.

Warriors ave of 2.6 in both regular season PR , Cavs by 1.77 in playoff PR = Warriors by .83

The only loss was 2010 Celtics losing in game 7 when they did have a late lead but could not make a shot down the stretch.

The 2010 Celtics with their weak rebounding, 48.3%, lived-up to what history has taught us, weak reb teams don't win NBA titles. 




 
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Posted: #195
Now, we  explained all that so you'll understand why  and how  we reach a valid conclusion here..............................

Because the Cavs dominated in rebs in the playoffs, this makes them appear better than they are and shifts the value to the Warriors.

Cavs played Celtics a mediorce reb team and Hawks the single worst reb team in the playoffs at 47.4% with the Nets being the 2cd worst at 48.8%, one of the Hawks opps in the playoffs.

And Hawks reb went down after Sefolosha was out and it went down far more in the playoffs to a horrendous 45.75% coming into the Cavs series.

Sefolosha got 6.3 rebs per 36 minutes of play, Millsap 6.5, Horford 6.4.


The Cavs look good because of dominating rebounding VS not very good rebounding teams, 

The info seems to support the value is all on the Warriors.................................
 
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Posted: #196
Helping Kama'aina to beat their " Local " since 1994.
 
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Posted: #197
WILL  LBJ'S CHAMPIONSHIP EXPERIENCE BE THE DIFFERENCE MAKER ?

Let's look at finals series when a 1st time team who's better in both Power Ratings by 1.25 in PR 1 and .75 in PR II plays a team with finals experience.

The problem is, it does not happen often, but we could find a similar thing looking into conference championship games and we'd find the same result in the NFL.

When you add it all up it's not the small sample size one might think.

91 Bulls better by 1.28 and 1.5, VS Magic's Lakers , a 5 time champion and 9 time finals team, Bulls roll 4-1 SU & ATS

95 Magic better by 3.07 and 4 VS Akeem and the defending Champs, Magic lose  0-4 SU & 1-3 ATS

2004 Pistons better by 3.08 and 1.55 VS 3 time champion Lakers with 2 all-time great players, Pistons roll 4-1 SU & 4-0-1 ATS

2008 Celtics better by 3.94 and 2.56 VS Kobe, 3 time champion and his Lakers, Celtics roll, 4-2 SU & 6-0 ATS. The series was never in doubt as Celtics took a 2-0 series lead and 3-1 series lead before crushing the Lakers in game 6  by 39, one of the largest blow-out wins in finals history.

1st time inexperienced teams 3-1 (75%)  at winning the series, and an off-the-charts 15-4-1 ATS (77.5%). Value, value, value

You could make a case that the 91 Bulls payed their dues by facing the Pistons twice in conference finals before beating them.

Celtics won the title the very first year they played together and produced one of the best records and point margins in history, it did not take them time to gel, see LBJ in 2011 and this season.

 Piston won the title with Rasheed Wallace joining the team with about 22-23 games remaining in the season, the team played but a fraction of the season  together.

We can make the same case in conference finals in regards to 91 Bulls and Pistons.

89 Pistons better b y 3.21, Pistons won 4-2
90 Pistons better by 2.78, Pistons won 4-3

91 Bulls better by 1.72, Bulls win 4-0

The very first time the Bulls became the better team they laid a beat-down on the Piston 4-0, it just took them longer to become the better team.

And look at the value once again one gets by backing the better team VS a far more experienced team that is now the inferior team. Bulls went I believe 4-0 ATS or 3-1 but I think it was 4-0.

Since I only have PRII at my finger-tips I only posted it, but the result would be the same for both.

89 Bulls - 51.21
90 Bulls 51.52
91 Bulls 55.4, now the Bulls became far stronger.

2004 Piston 53.5, far better than either Bulls team that could not beat the Pistons, and that with Wallace playing just 22-23 games of 82.

2008 Celtics 55.82

2015 Warriors 54.96

If Warriors win this series it goes to 4-1 (80%) for 1st time teams VS a all-time great player with loads of championship experience  and that would be almost identical to all other series with the same mathmatical advantage.

Which seems to indicate experience is not the big difference maker in the NBA Finals..


What history tells us, is that some teams need longer periods to develop very strong teams and some teams can develop strong teams quicker, but it's having a strong team that's important , not experience. 
 
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Posted: #198
What happens when the experienced team is the better team ?

We'll take a look at teams with prior experience of winning the title and better in both PR's by 1.25 and .75.

Again it does not happen often.

86 Celtics better by 7.36 and 3.55, 2 time champs, 3rd consecutive trip to finals VS 1st timers twin towers\, Akeem &  Sampson, Celtics roll 4-2 SU and 4-2 ATS

96 Bulls 3 time champs, better by 3.02 and 4.5 VS  G. Payton and Kemp, 1st timers Seattle, Bulls win 4-2 and 3-3 ATS

2002 Lakers 2 time champs and 3 consecutive finals, better by 3.01 and 1.55 VS J Kidd Nets, Lakers roll 4-1 SU and 2-1-1 ATS.

2007 Spurs, 3 time champs, better by 5.85 and 1.24 VS LBJ's Cavs, Spurs roll 4-0 SU and 3-1 ATS.

4-0 (100%) at winning the series and 12-7-1 ATS (62.5%) Not near the betting value as backing inexperienced teams when they are the better team.


Had you backed the more experienced team you'd be 5-3 at winning the series, but 7-1 at winning the series backing the better team.


When the more experienced team is the better team, the more experienced team wins..............................................................
When the more experienced team is not the better team the more experienced team losses.

The common denominator is flat-out being the better team................and that'd be the Warriors.....................
 
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Posted: #199
 
 
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Thanks for your hard work always
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