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NBA PLAYOFFS..............................2017

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Posted: #351
Teams down 2-0 don't win the series very often, Not likely Cavs come back and win this series,just because they beat huge odds last season  does not give them a better chance to beat huge odds again this season .




 
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Posted: #352
game 0-1 ATS lost 3.45 units
1st half 0-1 AST, lost 1.15 units

very tough loss guys, Cavs played far better and were in the game with a great chance to win SU not just cover but Warriors defense to much late and Cavs could not get a basket.

All we needed was 1 basket to get the cover, very tough loss.

Warriors now off 6 ATS wins, much like we talked about this team is on a mission and is not going to let-up.

Warriors in a closeout game, powerhouse teams are very good in closeout games.

Warriors 3-0 ATS in closeout games, winning by 25 VS Blazers, 25 VS Jazz and 14 VS Spurs 
 
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Posted: #353
MY LINES....................................

Warriors -4.55 over Cavs, game 4.

1992-2016 my lines in NBA Finals close-out games  ...................................

20-8 ATS in all games 
13-6 ATS with a 1 pt diff to closing line
10-4 ATS with a 2 pt diff

teams with a 1 pt to 1.99 diff are 3-2 ATS.
teams under a 2 pt diff are 10-4 ATS.

Info suggest we back the Cavs again.

We stay the course with the info.

Warriors 3-0 ATS in close-out games may have a regression and winning game 3 to take a 3-0 lead they may get a little complacent because they now know they will win the title.

But then again they might be playing for history and immortality going 16-0 throughout the playoffs.

But remember Warriors played for immortality last year breaking the wins record with 73 and lost the finals.

Very possible they won't be as concerned about that, just winning the title and this is a spot they could relax knowing the title is well in-hand.
 
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Posted: #354
96 Bulls were in a very similar spot, 12-1 through-out the playoffs  going into finals, and up 3-0 then lost 2 straight.

96 Bulls beat the Magic 4-0 in conference finals.
Beat Knicks 4-1 in 2cd round

Magic was in finals year before, Knicks were in the finals 2 years before.

96 Bulls payed back to back finals teams.

2017 Warriors played Jazz whom never won a playoff series and Spurs with a group of players never been to a final and were trailing by 30 pts with Spurs best player in the game.

Warriors barely hung-on to beat the Spurs with their best player out.

Bulls played the better, tougher  opps and destroyed them 8-1 and doubtful they ever trail by 30 pts to either at any point in the games.
 
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Posted: #355
PR I.......................................................

96 Bulls  11
2017 Warriors 11.6, best since 1974 1st year league track stats needed

Warriors slightly better
Teams better by 1.5 or more are 20-5 winning the series since 1980.
Teams under 1 are 3-5 winning the series since 1980

PRII...............................................................

96 Bulls 58.4 , best since 1974
2017 Warriors  55.25

Bulls better by 3.15
Teams .75 or better 24-6 since 1980.


Both PR's Combined......................................

96 Bulls 69.4, best team since 1974
2017 Warriors 66.85

Bulls by 2.55
Teams better by 1.5 or more are 23-5 and going to 24-5 after Warriors win the title.


97 Bulls PR II 56.9, 2cd best team since 1974
92 Bulls 56.4, 3rd best team since 1974

Both teams well above the 2017 Warriors

PRI best teams.......................................

2017 Warriors 11.6
2016 Warriors 11.34
2008 Celtics 11.05
96 Bulls 11

2008 Celtics were far better then anyone really gave them credit for, the Warriors have the 2 best teams but only slightly better then the 96 Bulls while the Bulls dominate Warriors in PR II which is more balance heavy.
 
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Posted: #356
What made the 96 Bulls so incredible was they won every meaningful battle, Warriors do not, they are good at basically 1 thing, shooting, Bulls were far more balanced and could win in more ways then Warriors.

Bulls were by far and when I say by far I mean by far the best rebounding team to win the title since 1980.

96 Bulls 54% rebs, the next best team to win the title w
\was Pistons 52.2%

97 Bulls 52.6%, 2cd best reb team to win title 

92 Bulls 52.5%, tied with Pistons for 3rd best

96 Bulls shot 40.3% on 3's

MJ shot 42.6% on 3's
Kukoc 40.3%
Pippen 37.4%
Ker 51.5%

Rodman signed with Bulls in 95 and he is one of if not greatest rebounder in history.

In 96 Rodman got 26.6% of rebs in a game

Compare that to Green, 13.3%, Rodman was twice the rebounder Green is.

Both MJ and Pippen get over 10% of rebs .


96 Bulls had way to much balance for Warriors to handle, not only did they dominate rebs but they won fairly big winning TO battle by 2.8 per game compared to Warriors .7.

It's rare in history to see a team that can win big in both rebs and TO as big inside guys who get rebs don't have quickness to win TO battle and generally poor reb teams like the Warriors who lack size inside  have quickness  win the TO battle big but Warriors do not do that, all they do is shoot the ball very well which no question makes them a great team, but the best team ?

96 Bulls went to the line more often then they sent opps to the line but Warriors send opps to the line more often then they get there, and Curry is not very good at drawing fouls and getting to the line for a top elite NBA player.

96 Bulls did more things better the Warriors and rate-out the much better team because of it.

For those who hAve followed along my PR's , our favorite in each sport has made the championship game 15 of the past 17 tries and if Warriors win which they almost certainly will our fav will have won 11 of 17 times.

My PR's would easily call the Bullas to Beat the Warriors in a finals match-up................................................
 
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Posted: #357
Cavs +6 (-120) over Warriors --- 3.6 units
Cavs +3.5 1st half --- 1.1 units

we stay the course with my lines siding with Cavs and we know Cavs are much better then the regular season PR's says.
 
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Posted: #358
Pretty clear Cavs have all the energy and effort in the early going up 14-5.

Warriors not bringing the same chip on their shoulders this game, at least in the early going.

They are complacent


 
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Posted: #359
Thank you Claw. you know your stuff. Bulls best team ever!!

Whats scary about this game is Cavs can still lose , but they should cover. those miss frer throws might come back to haunt them if Cavs offense starts cooling off in 2nd half...
Sip on that plus money honey!
 
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Posted: #360
Quote Originally Posted by Digitalkarma:

Thank you Claw. you know your stuff. Bulls best team ever!!

Whats scary about this game is Cavs can still lose , but they should cover. those miss frer throws might come back to haunt them if Cavs offense starts cooling off in 2nd half...

 
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Posted: #361
game --- 1-0 ATS, won 3 units
1st half --- 1-0 ATS, won 1 unit

It was very evident in the early going Cavs had all the energy and effort in game 4 which Warriors simply could not match.

Warriors reach a point in series of being satisfied with where they stood, they became complacent.

This can sometimes carry over for 2 games, not always,  but after 2 SU losses if Warriors lose 2 SU and they just might, the team will really bring it next game and put an end to this series.

If it gets to game 6 we will be bringing our biggest play of the playoffs on Warriors.
 
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Posted: #362
Cavs finally shot their 3's very well after doing so in playoffs coming into finals, they had a regression the 1st couple of games , but that is how shooting goes.

Warriors had a regression in game 4 shooting about 28% on 3's with both Curry and Durant  shooting very poorly on 3's, but that is just how it goes.

3 pt shots being longer shots are very difficult to be consistent game to game, even the best 3 pt shooting teams in history will have moments of very poor 3 pt shooting as Warriors did and Cavs did in early in series.

This could very well play over to game 5.


Warriors off 2 big home wins in game 1 & 2 and back at home is not a good spot for Warriors ATS. 
 
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Posted: #363
 
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Posted: #364
MY LINES..................................game 5

Warriors -12.55 over Cavs

NBA Finals teams with a 3-1 series lead..............................

8-5 ATS

with a 2 pt diff to closing line --- 6-2 ATS

with a 2 pt diff and off a win --- 5-1 ATS 

with a 2pt diff and off a loss --- 1-1 ATS



Powerhouse teams like the Warriors in a 2cd close-out game are money.

But this is not the best spot for such, Warriors big favs off 2 home ATS wins in game 1 & 2, and when playing a strong opp like the Cavs who rate the 2cd best team in playoff rating since 2001  those strong opps have a history of storming back into the series as the Cavs did in game 4 and could of done in game 3.

Cavs also much better then regular season PR's say, if they are 2 pts better which they certainly seem to be at least 2 pts better abnd likely more then 2 pts then my line becomes Warriors -10.55 or less and we would not have a 2 pt anyway.


Cavs may have a great shot to win SU in game 5, if they can pull out the win we will come large on Warriors game 6.

LEAN---  Cavs +9
LEAN --- Cavs ML
LEAN --- UNDER 

Total is huge at 231, and with game 4 off recorded setting points , just might be indicator  the overs are all done.

It is hard to imagine with the Warriors shooting just under 45% and a dreadful 28% on 3's they still scored 116 pts.

If Warriors shoot that bad and still score 116 pts OMGoodness.

But they did have 36 FT's to help, doubtful we'll see all the FT's we saw last game which stops the clock,  and both teams may have a bit of a regression scoring the ball even the Warriors as they have been shooting very, very well for to long a run before game 4 .

Warriors getting lucky at the end of game 3 was another indicator their luck would run out before long,  And might just carry over to this game 5.


Buy low/sell high, backing the over here your buying at the highest point, not a long term winner there.
 
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Posted: #365
Claw, I always enjoy reading your work there is an art piece you peform with numbers and stats combined with history. You and scal represent the perfect combo of numbers and physiology.  For this game I think the numbers won't be as important as the physiological aspects of the warriors keeping there feet on the gas until the last second and th cavs knowing deeep in their minds the series is over.  Regardles I love reading your work.
Quote Originally Posted by theclaw:

MY LINES..................................game 5

Warriors -12.55 over Cavs

NBA Finals teams with a 3-1 series lead..............................

8-5 ATS

with a 2 pt diff to closing line --- 6-2 ATS

with a 2 pt diff and off a win --- 5-1 ATS 

with a 2pt diff and off a loss --- 1-1 ATS



Powerhouse teams like the Warriors in a 2cd close-out game are money.

But this is not the best spot for such, Warriors big favs off 2 home ATS wins in game 1 & 2, and when playing a strong opp like the Cavs who rate the 2cd best team in playoff rating since 2001  those strong opps have a history of storming back into the series as the Cavs did in game 4 and could of done in game 3.

Cavs also much better then regular season PR's say, if they are 2 pts better which they certainly seem to be at least 2 pts better abnd likely more then 2 pts then my line becomes Warriors -10.55 or less and we would not have a 2 pt anyway.


Cavs may have a great shot to win SU in game 5, if they can pull out the win we will come large on Warriors game 6.

LEAN---  Cavs +9
LEAN --- Cavs ML
LEAN --- UNDER 

Total is huge at 231, and with game 4 off recorded setting points , just might be indicator  the overs are all done.

It is hard to imagine with the Warriors shooting just under 45% and a dreadful 28% on 3's they still scored 116 pts.

If Warriors shoot that bad and still score 116 pts OMGoodness.

But they did have 36 FT's to help, doubtful we'll see all the FT's we saw last game which stops the clock,  and both teams may have a bit of a regression scoring the ball even the Warriors as they have been shooting very, very well for to long a run before game 4 .

Warriors getting lucky at the end of game 3 was another indicator their luck would run out before long,  And might just carry over to this game 5.


Buy low/sell high, backing the over here your buying at the highest point, not a long term winner there.
 
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Posted: #366
 
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Posted: #367
Cavs +9 (-115) over Warriors --- 2.3 units
Cavs ML +285 --- 1 unit to win 2.85 units

Cavs +5 (-105) 1st half --- 1 unit
Cavs ML +240 --- 1 unit to win 2.4 units

LEAN --- UNDER 231
LEAN --- UNDER 1st half 121
 
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Posted: #368

Claw - good luck to you!

New strategy for Cavs is take the ball to the hoop.  I expect a significant number of Free Throws for the Cavs tonight.  They need to improve their FT shooting though.

I have GSW - first quarter.

Cavs + 9.5 for the game.

I appreciate all your research and insights.  Value ADD to this website.

 
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Posted: #369
Cavs in 7.... Cavs ml +300 wins $$ tonight 
 
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Posted: #370
Quote Originally Posted by SharpShooter8:

Claw - good luck to you!

New strategy for Cavs is take the ball to the hoop.  I expect a significant number of Free Throws for the Cavs tonight.  They need to improve their FT shooting though.

I have GSW - first quarter.

Cavs + 9.5 for the game.

I appreciate all your research and insights.  Value ADD to this website.


..................... the hook payed off for you, sweet.
 
 
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Posted: #371
Game -- 0-0-1 ATS , 0 units
1st half --- 0-1 ATS , lost 1 unit

ML --- 0-2, lost 2 units

LEANS --- 0-2



LBJ now drops to 1-4 (20%) when playing on an inferior team by 1.5 pts or more.

All teams since 1980 are 24-5 when 1.5 or better so inferior teams are 17.2% almost identical to LBJ.

All-time great players do not win any more often then all other players when playing on the inferior team.

The better team wins, not the all-time great.


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