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NBA Regular Season 2017

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Posted: #176
Friday play:

NY Knicks ML (2 units) - 2.75


GL everyone 
 
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Posted: #177
I like it.  But I took +5  Gl Bro!
 
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Posted: #178
Quote Originally Posted by Pistol_Pete_44:

Friday play:

NY Knicks ML (2 units) - 2.75


GL everyone 

Bravo Pete 
 
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Posted: #179
 
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Posted: #180
JJJ-3J

Aussie

StephanBoy85

Finally good night with nice profit after 3-4 poor and unlucky days.

1-0 last night. +3.50 units.

NBA Season 2017 YTD 46-50 (+37.89 units)

5u 0-0
4u 1-0
3u 6-6 (incl. 0-1 plays with odds >3.0)
2u 27-23 (incl. 3-10 plays with odds >3.0)
1u 12-21 (plays with odds ~ >3.0)

For today I'll probably be again on under in SAS - Brk game. Surprisingly now line is only 210.0 points, so maybe it's worth to wait to see how it will change during the day, I mean in my opinion should go up. This level of line can indicate that under is the play. But it's still plenty of time to decide.

GL!
 
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Posted: #181
Saturday plays:

SAS - Brk Nets under 210.0 (3 units) - 1.91

Cha Hornets 1H ML (1 unit) - 2.87

Dal Mavericks ML (1 unit) - 9.00

Out of 10 games in my opinion Dal would win once or twice in these circumstances so I think that odds have value, and were even better (over 10.0). Somehow I also feel that 2nd half will belong to Dal. We'll see. GL!

GL everyone 
 
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Posted: #182
0-3 last night. -5.00 units.

High odds dog hit yesterday, but it was Mem not Dal. I also misread the line in SAS - Brk game.

NBA Season 2017 YTD 46-53 (+32.89 units)

5u 0-0
4u 1-0
3u 6-7 (incl. 0-1 plays with odds >3.0)
2u 27-23 (incl. 3-10 plays with odds >3.0)
1u 12-23 (plays with odds ~ >3.0)

 
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Posted: #183
Tuesday play:

Hou Rockets - Brk Nets under 229.5 (2 units) - 1.95


GL everyone 
 
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Posted: #184
96 points in 1st half. And then 79 points in 3rd q and 65 points in 4th q. Especially this 3rd quarter killed the play.

0-1 last night. -2.00 units.

NBA Season 2017 YTD 46-54 (+30.89 units)

5u 0-0
4u 1-0
3u 6-7 (incl. 0-1 plays with odds >3.0)
2u 27-24 (incl. 3-10 plays with odds >3.0)
1u 12-23 (plays with odds ~ >3.0)

 
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Posted: #185
Quote Originally Posted by Pistol_Pete_44:

96 points in 1st half. And then 79 points in 3rd q and 65 points in 4th q. Especially this 3rd quarter killed the play.

0-1 last night. -2.00 units.

NBA Season 2017 YTD 46-54 (+30.89 units)

5u 0-0
4u 1-0
3u 6-7 (incl. 0-1 plays with odds >3.0)
2u 27-24 (incl. 3-10 plays with odds >3.0)
1u 12-23 (plays with odds ~ >3.0)



You are not up 31 units with a 46-54 record. Just look at the summary of your 1 to 5 unit plays and the records beside them.

You are:

+4 units on 4u plays
-3 units on 3u plays
+6 units on 2u plays
-11 units on 1u plays

Total that up and you are down -4 units overall NOT counting juice. Add in the juice lost on your 54 losses and you're down about -15 units in total.

So where does this "+30.89 units" units figure come from?

 
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Posted: #186
Quote Originally Posted by motowner:



You are not up 31 units with a 46-54 record. Just look at the summary of your 1 to 5 unit plays and the records beside them.

You are:

+4 units on 4u plays
-3 units on 3u plays
+6 units on 2u plays
-11 units on 1u plays

Total that up and you are down -4 units overall NOT counting juice. Add in the juice lost on your 54 losses and you're down about -15 units in total.

So where does this "+30.89 units" units figure come from?



he plays a lot of moneyline dogs.
 
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Posted: #187
motowner

As huskerfan5b wrote, I play a lot of dogs. This year I managed to hit plays with odds >5.00 and also many ML's around odds 3.00, so despite not very good record (46-54) I was able to record quite significant profit (over 30 units). It was even better, but last week was rather poor for me.

Just analyze few pages of my topic. Everything is transparent and summarized after each day.

GL!
 
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Posted: #188
Quote Originally Posted by motowner:



You are not up 31 units with a 46-54 record. Just look at the summary of your 1 to 5 unit plays and the records beside them.

You are:

+4 units on 4u plays
-3 units on 3u plays
+6 units on 2u plays
-11 units on 1u plays

Total that up and you are down -4 units overall NOT counting juice. Add in the juice lost on your 54 losses and you're down about -15 units in total.

So where does this "+30.89 units" units figure come from?


He sure is up that many units..This guy is a underdog genius. Other posters on covers whinge and moan all the time that fav's are winning but Pete hits the underdog ML all the time. Mostly 1H bets and even though his record is less than 50%, he still is up more units that most people on covers because of the dog ML he hits.. 


 
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Posted: #189
Nice 
 
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Posted: #190
Pete,
I've been following for a while and think you do a really good job in your capping. 

That being said, I don't understand why you keep playing the Nets/Under which seems like VERY often. They play NO defense yet can score against pretty much anyone. 
 

 
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Posted: #191
Aussie thank you very much for your comment.

Last few days were rather poor for me, I lost around 10-15 units. But this is inevitable consequence of my strategy. I have very good periods in which I try to maximize profit and use my confidence but then comes correction and worse period with worse bets selection. It's rather impossible to be able to hit high odds plays regularly. So far it's profitable and I don't put much attention to my record but to my result in terms of units.

Maybe it's also good moment to make short summary:

Units placed: 180.00
Units won: 210.89
ROI: 17.16%

WinstonTheWolf

Some time ago I noticed that Brooklyn played several games with Western Conference teams and thought that lines for their next games, especially with Eastern Conference teams, are inflated due to prior results. It was correct assumption in next 2 games with Milwaukee, but then indeed this logic failed. Yesterday I liked under because of high line and fact that Hou in last games had not so high results. It looked really good after 1st half but 3rd quarter and then 4th quarter spoiled it. I'll definitely limit playing these unders.

GL!

 
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Posted: #192
Quote Originally Posted by Pistol_Pete_44:

Aussie thank you very much for your comment.





WinstonTheWolf

Some time ago I noticed that Brooklyn played several games with Western Conference teams and thought that lines for their next games, especially with Eastern Conference teams, are inflated due to prior results. It was correct assumption in next 2 games with Milwaukee, but then indeed this logic failed. Yesterday I liked under because of high line and fact that Hou in last games had not so high results. It looked really good after 1st half but 3rd quarter and then 4th quarter spoiled it. I'll definitely limit playing these unders.

GL!


I think logic was good and did not necessarily fail because of those results

Of course WinstonTheWolf's observation is correct, but lines adjust accordingly and value (if any) is more likely to be found betting the under

nice ROI btw 
 
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Posted: #193
Tuesday plays:

Mem Grizzlies 1H +10.0 (1 unit) - 2.00

Mem Grizzlies 1H ML (1 unit) - 9.42

Minn Timberwolves 1H ML (1 unit) - 2.71

Minn Timberwolves ML (1 unit) - 3.27


I just have to try Mem 1H ML with these odds. I think once or twice out of ten games it would be a winner. So I see value in it.

Minn hasn't lost more than 4 games in a row so far in the season, so I hope they will put much effort not to lose 5th for the first time.

GL everyone 
 
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Posted: #194
Thx outoforder

Tomorrow we have Brk with LAL on schedule so we will see what line will be. But as I wrote, if I decide to play, it will be max 1-2 units play.

GL!
 
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Posted: #195
1-3 last night. -0.73 units.

NBA Season 2017 YTD 47-57 (+30.16 units)

5u 0-0
4u 1-0
3u 6-7 (incl. 0-1 plays with odds >3.0)
2u 27-24 (incl. 3-10 plays with odds >3.0)
1u 13-26 (plays with odds ~ >3.0)

 
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Posted: #196
Thanks for your explanation Pete, makes total sense. GL rest of the way 
 
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Posted: #197
Wednesday play:

Brk Nets - LAL under 229.5 (2 units) - 1.83


GL everyone 
 
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Posted: #198
1-0 last night. +1.66 units.

Let's see what lines for next Brk games will be available.

NBA Season 2017 YTD 48-57 (+31.82 units)

5u 0-0
4u 1-0
3u 6-7 (incl. 0-1 plays with odds >3.0)
2u 28-24 (incl. 3-10 plays with odds >3.0)
1u 13-26 (plays with odds ~ >3.0)

 
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Posted: #199
I had 2-3 days off.

Sunday play:

 Was Wizards (2 units) - 2.66


GL everyone 
 
 
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Posted: #200
Of course it's ML.

Sunday play:

 Was Wizards ML (2 units) - 2.66


GL everyone 
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