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NBA Thursday.. 2-1 yesterday (39-25 YTD 60.9%)

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Posted: #1
Value play for today.  I was going to take the Rockets but a slew of Suns trends that are due for progression knocked the Rockets overall edge down to 1-point in my scoring table.

Los Angeles Lakers +3.5
Projected score: Lakers 91 Celtics 88
Lakers hold a 7-point ATS edge according to my scoring table.

I am actually going to bet the Lakers -1 alternate line for +145 odds.  It's a value play so I can wager around 60% of a unit to win a full unit.

My documented record since I started posting here can be found in my "covers space".. 17-12 (58.6%).
 
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Posted: #2
Tight lines, I don't calculate more than a 2-point ATS edge for any other side tonight.
 
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Posted: #3
Damn tough crowd today, maybe I should stop documenting so I can claim a higher winning %.. tout, tout, tout.
 
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Posted: #4

Lakers ATS trends that are due for progression:

  • Lakers are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games as a road underdog.
  • Lakers are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.
  • Lakers are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
  • Lakers are 6-14-1 ATS in the last 21 meetings vs Boston.
  • Lakers are 1-9 ATS after scoring 90 points or less

Celtics ATS trends that are due for regression:

  • Celtics are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS loss.
  • Celtics are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 games as a home favorite of 0.5-4.5.
 
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Posted: #5

Hahaha - I was thinking the same thing about by thread, too. I mean, 15-9 isn't a humungous sample size by any means, but a little input would be helpful. Perhaps we don't use the capslock key enough?

I think the Lakers are coming into their own lately, as are the Celtics. I think that means we'll have a very competitive game. Los Angeles is coming off of a three day break and will be antsy to get that taste of the Philadelphia loss out of their mouths. Boston has won four straight on this homestand, but I can't say any of their wins really beams "impressive" at me. I also see that Steve Blake is expected to play tonight; I think that combined with the emergence of Andrew Goudelock, gives Los Angeles the ability to hang with/control the lead against Boston when Kobe and the gang are getting a breather.

GL on your plays tonight. Go Lakers.

 
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Posted: #6

If you predict that score might as well take them moneyline...

 
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Posted: #7
Quote Originally Posted by AK415:

If you predict that score might as well take them moneyline...



If you read above you'll see what my person bet on the game is:

"I am actually going to bet the Lakers -1 alternate line for +145 odds.  It's a value play so I can wager around 60% of a unit to win a full unit."

I use the spread in all of my picks for documenting purposes. You can't document with the ML here using covers contests.


 
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Posted: #8
Quote Originally Posted by rlawson:

Hahaha - I was thinking the same thing about by thread, too. I mean, 15-9 isn't a humungous sample size by any means, but a little input would be helpful. Perhaps we don't use the capslock key enough?

I think the Lakers are coming into their own lately, as are the Celtics. I think that means we'll have a very competitive game. Los Angeles is coming off of a three day break and will be antsy to get that taste of the Philadelphia loss out of their mouths. Boston has won four straight on this homestand, but I can't say any of their wins really beams "impressive" at me. I also see that Steve Blake is expected to play tonight; I think that combined with the emergence of Andrew Goudelock, gives Los Angeles the ability to hang with/control the lead against Boston when Kobe and the gang are getting a breather.

GL on your plays tonight. Go Lakers.



Well-put, the Lakers definitely need more bench effort and Blake should help their struggling perimeter game. The Celtics have been good lately, making the public forget how miserable they were to start the season,

The Lakers have a huge advantage down low and they are a veteran squad that should do much better on the road than they have this season, their road play will progress enormously.
 
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Posted: #9
1-0 with a Lakers spread and ML cash.. 4 winning nights in a row and 40-25 on the year (61.5%)
 
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Posted: #11
My scoring table went 3-1 today. All small edges, except LAL, but right nevertheless.
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