I'm very intrigued by the Miami/Sacramento total. You have to remember that while Miami may put up 110 points, it doesn't mean that the total will go over. These types of games (with Miami also as a 14 points favorite) remind me of these Alabama or LSU games from this year, when they'd be favored by 40 with a game total of only like, 50. What this line is telling us is that Sacramento isn't going to score much.
One stat that does concern me is the way Sacramento has been scoring (or not scoring) on the road. The PPG they've had for the last six road games goes like this: 100, 84, 115, 85, 108, 92. It's as if they're alternating good and bad offensive outputs. If we're looking just at the pattern, it appears they're "due" for another 100+ point night. The overs for Miami home games have hit just twice in the last ten games, while it has hit just four times in the last ten Sacramento road games.
Any thoughts on this one?
One thing that I've noticed lately that will have an effect on both the ATS line and the total is that Spolstra leaves his starters in for so long. Even against Orlando on Sunday, they were up huge in the late minutes of the 4th quarter and LeBron & Bosh were still out there. Now, it's one thing to be playing a Sunday afternoon game against Orlando or a Tuesday evening mismatch with the Kings, I understand that much, but just some food for thought. Your prediction looks like it could be very accurate and would put both of these teams right around their respective home and away averages.
My information is showing a 67/33 split in favor of the UNDER on the Miami game tonight, and the line is sitting, as I type this, as the 202.5 that it opened at. I don't put a whole lot into "line movement," but it's always a red flag when so many people are on it. I understand that MONEY drives the line and not number of bets, but you know what I'm getting at.
One thing that I've noticed lately that will have an effect on both the ATS line and the total is that Spolstra leaves his starters in for so long. Even against Orlando on Sunday, they were up huge in the late minutes of the 4th quarter and LeBron & Bosh were still out there. Now, it's one thing to be playing a Sunday afternoon game against Orlando or a Tuesday evening mismatch with the Kings, I understand that much, but just some food for thought. Your prediction looks like it could be very accurate and would put both of these teams right around their respective home and away averages.
Great info. I saw the line earlier at 203.5 but now it's down to 202.5. I'm going to see if I can get it at 203 later in the day; I'm becoming more familiar with line movements and I believe I'll be able to get it at 203 or higher later. If I can, I'm going to pounce immediately.
Great info. I saw the line earlier at 203.5 but now it's down to 202.5. I'm going to see if I can get it at 203 later in the day; I'm becoming more familiar with line movements and I believe I'll be able to get it at 203 or higher later. If I can, I'm going to pounce immediately.
Yeah, I'm going to wait and see where some of these lines go throughout the day; they are all too close to call right now. Thanks for the info about Detroit/Cleveland - definitely will be looking more at that one, especially with Cleveland's injuries.
As far as the Philly game goes, I'm thinking Memphis is the play. I think the line (Philly -1) is begging for 76er money. Everyone who played them the other night will be playing them again tonight for the same reasons - they "only" have to win and they're a better team than Memphis. That may be true, but Memphis is solid at home and I believe they lead the league in turnovers created. Without looking any further into the game than just the line, I'd say Memphis for no other reason, people are looking to "get their money back" from the other night against Minneosta.
My book, a local, always sort of does whatever it wants to with lines; it doesn't necesarily follow everything else. I'll be watching it all day - I think as soon as it pops up to 203, I'm jumping on it for two units.
Yeah, I'm going to wait and see where some of these lines go throughout the day; they are all too close to call right now. Thanks for the info about Detroit/Cleveland - definitely will be looking more at that one, especially with Cleveland's injuries.
As far as the Philly game goes, I'm thinking Memphis is the play. I think the line (Philly -1) is begging for 76er money. Everyone who played them the other night will be playing them again tonight for the same reasons - they "only" have to win and they're a better team than Memphis. That may be true, but Memphis is solid at home and I believe they lead the league in turnovers created. Without looking any further into the game than just the line, I'd say Memphis for no other reason, people are looking to "get their money back" from the other night against Minneosta.
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