NBA Totals - Tuesday 2-21-12

FINAL PLAYS:

Cleveland vs. Detroit UNDER 193 (1 unit)

One of the reasons that I like this play is that both of these teams play hard. What I mean by that is this: whether it's a great team, an average team, or a below average team, you can count on both of these teams to make a competitive game out of it. The problem is, neither one of them is used to dictating the pace themselves; they're used to playing up (or down) to what their opponent has gameplanned. I believe that will bring some moments of indeciseveness throughout the game and an end to some possessions without points. I believe Detroit may come into this game overconfident after beating the Celtics two times in the last week; I look for a better Cleveland team to keep them in check because of it.

UnbelievaBulls - I swear to God I spend 5 minutes watching your avatar every time I come across it. I think it will come down to this: do you trust Sacramento's offense or Miami's defense more? It's not even a question - Miami's D. Because of that, and the reason you said above, I will most likely end up making a play on the under for this full game. The size of my play will rely on the line and if it goes any higher.

Mahatma12 - nice grab and no problem! GL to us.

It's a combination of the PPG home/away averages for both teams (both offensive & defensive), as well as several key stat categories I compare; I put point values on the variances between the offense of one team and the defense of another in each category. I also factor in numbers from the referees on each game, although it's not a large part of the process.

Quote Originally Posted by turtleboy:

Rlawson, was wondering why no Sac/Heat under. Did you change your mind or still waiting for the 203?

Turtle 

Just trying to wait for the 203 is all; I'd prefer get 203 and make it a 3-unit play, but if I can't get it, will probably end up betting two.

FINAL PLAYS:

Cleveland vs. Detroit UNDER 193 (1 unit)

Miami vs. Sacramento UNDER 202 (2 units)

I finally bit because I've got to get some work done this afternoon and probably won't get a chance to check in on it again. Had this gone back up to 203.5, I would have made it a 3 unit bet, but here we are. My prediction for the final score is 109-87, which is still a bit closer than I'd like it to be. There's no reason for Miami to get up for this game, but that doesn't mean they won't shut them down. Sacramento can explode on offense from time to time, but tonight will not be one of those times. I can't see any match-up on Sacrament's offense that favors them, besides maybe Cousins in the post - but if you're going to tell me that Cousins will lead them to triple digits, I'll let you take that bet all day long.

Real jealous of that line - would have been all over that like my date on prom night.

That concerns me, too. I went and looked at the totals Miami has had this season against comparable teams (Cleveland, Washington, Toronto, New Orleans, Detroit, New Jersey, and Charlotte) and the average total is 195.6 between all nine games against these opponents. Only two of the nine games went over the 200 mark, with one of them coming in the first week of the season (fresh legs, "something to prove" mentality, etc). The second game that went over 200 was against New Orleans, at a total of 204, where both teams shot 53% or higher. Sacrament's defense is terrible, but I'm sticking to my guns.