The CHI/MIL line has moved down from 195.5 to 195.0 so for the time being, it looks like I finally did myself a favor betting a line early. The same could be said about OKC/PHX, which moved to 202.0 (from 203.0) but now has settled back to where I bet it at. SAS/NYK is still at 200.0, two points higher than my bet at UNDER 198.0.
I know there are other things that go into line movement other than just number of bets (and yes I understand the difference between volume of bets and size of bets), but here's what I can tell based solely off of public betting:
CHI/MIL - bet at 195.5, 73% of public on UNDER, moved to 195.0 (makes sense);
PHX/OKC - bet at 203.0, 50% split on total, currently at 203.0 (makes sense);
SAS/NYK - bet at 198.0, 65% of public on UNDER, moved to 200.0 (opposite line movement).
Anybody have any bright ideas on how to guage this? I've asked before but haven't gotten any answers. Where do you guys get your PUBLIC betting percentages from? (Not your Covers contests percentages)
The CHI/MIL line has moved down from 195.5 to 195.0 so for the time being, it looks like I finally did myself a favor betting a line early. The same could be said about OKC/PHX, which moved to 202.0 (from 203.0) but now has settled back to where I bet it at. SAS/NYK is still at 200.0, two points higher than my bet at UNDER 198.0.
I know there are other things that go into line movement other than just number of bets (and yes I understand the difference between volume of bets and size of bets), but here's what I can tell based solely off of public betting:
CHI/MIL - bet at 195.5, 73% of public on UNDER, moved to 195.0 (makes sense);
PHX/OKC - bet at 203.0, 50% split on total, currently at 203.0 (makes sense);
SAS/NYK - bet at 198.0, 65% of public on UNDER, moved to 200.0 (opposite line movement).
Anybody have any bright ideas on how to guage this? I've asked before but haven't gotten any answers. Where do you guys get your PUBLIC betting percentages from? (Not your Covers contests percentages)
Check out vegasinsider.com and click on NBA. Click on "matchups" and you'll find info on betting percentages.
It just doesn't make any sense to me why this total was so high to begin with. First off, I feel that San Antonio matches up with New York much better than Dallas does. Secondly, San Antonio only averages four more points at home per game on offense than Dallas does, while also allowing, on average, on LESS point per game on defense (giving us a net difference of +3.0 points). The game last night landed on 180, which was 12 below the final total. There's absolutely no reason for tonight's total to be 8 points higher than the total for DAL/NYK yesterday.
It just doesn't make any sense to me why this total was so high to begin with. First off, I feel that San Antonio matches up with New York much better than Dallas does. Secondly, San Antonio only averages four more points at home per game on offense than Dallas does, while also allowing, on average, on LESS point per game on defense (giving us a net difference of +3.0 points). The game last night landed on 180, which was 12 below the final total. There's absolutely no reason for tonight's total to be 8 points higher than the total for DAL/NYK yesterday.
Sounds good. I don't know what to make of the reverse line movement either. Your rationale sounds great to me.
It's just 90% is on one side and the line moves 2 pts the other way, that's always a bad sign.
But whatever. Line's moved against you in most of your plays, and they've been solid. I'll blindly tail on this one. 
Squash - for the longest while, I didn't. I was playing different units and it was making a difference in my bank roll, but I kept all plays on here listed at 1 unit. It's obvious there is a difference between betting 1 unit and betting 4 and it's reflected on my YTD winnings. I hope to keep it up for as long as possible.
T9X - BOL to you.
KENMAN - thanks for the info; will definitely put it to use.
jaredms & unstoppable - I'm not concerned at all. As I said in post #1 of this thread, if the line moves even more in favor of the wager I want, the only thing I'll reconsider is putting more on the bet. I'm hitting 62.5% on all plays, and over 75% on 2+ unit plays. No I don't know everything in the world and yes I understand 75% is unrealistic to strive for on a consistant basis, but my system is hot. I'll ride it out into the sunset if I have to. GL to you guys tonight.
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