Posted:
#1
YTD: 238-231-4 (+6.65 units)
ATS: 157-135-4 (+12.3 units)
ML: 8-13 (-6.1 units)
Totals: 50-38 (+8.9 units)
LIVE: 5-6 (+0.2 units)
2H ATS: 4-7 (-3.7 units)
2H Totals: 10-9 (+0.1 units)
Parlays: 2-22 (-5.65 units)
Teasers: 3-3 (+0 units)
Monday: 3-8 (-8.7 units)
Horrible slump right now. Getting some bad luck. Time to switch things up. I'll now be posting a write-up for each game whether I play it or not. This way I won't miss out on any potentially good plays.
Tuesday
Indiana Pacers -3 @ Atlanta Hawks TOTAL: 199
Factors:
1. Home Court Advantage
The Pacers are 14-8 (13-9 ATS) on the road. But in their last 8 road games, they are 2-6 ATS. The Hawks are 16-6 at home (15-7 ATS). As home dogs, the Hawks are 6-2 ATS. Atlanta is a very good home team.
Advantage: Atlanta
2. Fatigue
Indiana is playing the second of a back-to-back, but they're coming off an easy win over Orlando. Atlanta has had two days of rest before this game.
Advantage: Atlanta
3. Previous Matchups
These two teams met once this season, and ATL was home in that one as well. The Hawks were still missing Horford in that one, and won the game 97-87. Atlanta led by 17 at the half before Indiana ultimately cut the lead to 10. At one point, Atlanta was up 25. The question you ask yourself is will Atlanta beat the best team in the NBA again?
Advantage: Indiana
4. Look-ahead Game
Indiana has a game against Portland after this one, but so far this season they have proven to me that they don't usually lay eggs. I won't say this one is much of a factor.
5. The TOTAL
Here's where we're getting some value. The total is set at 199. The last time these two teams met, which was January 8th, it was set at 187.5. The game finished at 184. So why is it 199 right now? I guess one reason for that could be is that Indiana has played higher scoring games lately, particularly on the road. But that was against some of the faster paced teams like SAC, DEN, GS, PHX, and LAL. In Pacers games with totals of 195 or more, the UNDER is 6-6-1, so no real angle there. Against Eastern Conference opponents, Indiana UNDERS are 20-10. Against Western Conference opponents, they are 8-9-1. So we see a tendency to play faster paced games against teams from the West. Hawks OVERS are 13-10 at home. But I think that Indiana will dictate the pace of this game, which will cause it to go UNDER. I know the total has increased from 197.5 to 199, but we're getting way too much value here. A 12-point increase from their game in ATL only a month ago.
Play: Pacers/Hawks UNDER 199 (3 units)
0
Like GSW/Cats under as well 
Pacers/hawks under too.
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