In regards to the Cleveland game, everything you stated makes plenty of sense; however, in this particular situation, do you not feel that the urgency level of Boston is much higher now that they are past the All star break? Also, they were able to practice more over the break, which is something they really needed as a team. Bass and Wilcox also practiced. I don't think O'Neill joined the team for practice though.
I agree that earlier in the year when they played dallas (1/11/12) after 4 straight days of no games, they should've been "rested", but that last time they were originally out of shape and doc rivers made them do conditioning during their days off. So, their very next game they were sore and exhausted. This time around, the celts players are in game shape and they had ample time to practice together, which they didn't really have much of before. Also, Rondo and Pierce stated over the break that their team was lacking offensive and defensive discipline and they planned to work on that during the break.
Anyways, I completely agree with you on much of what you said because the fact of the matter is the Cavs are competitive enough to be favorites in most of their home games. But, the Celtics are a veteran team that is actually rested this game, lol (first time all year). Also, do you think the "look ahead angle" matters for Cavs?
Boy, that's a lot of unquantifiable analysis.
Cleveland has one of the best 1-2 punches at PG in the league with Irving and Sessions. They are a surprisingly deep young team with guys like Thompson and Gee trying to prove themselves as everyday players. The Cavs are not a team that is going to look past anybody because their goal is improvement, not a deep playoff run (although that would be a nice bonus.)
As you said, the Celtics have a sense of urgency that borders on desperation. This is an old team who's championship window narrows every day. They don't have the luxury of playing day-by-day with an aim on improving. Boston against an dog on the first leg of a b2b will always be a look-ahead/save your legs game but Cleveland is looking to get this win so they can play with house money in New York tomorrow.
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Quote Originally Posted by bigDe1002003:
In regards to the Cleveland game, everything you stated makes plenty of sense; however, in this particular situation, do you not feel that the urgency level of Boston is much higher now that they are past the All star break? Also, they were able to practice more over the break, which is something they really needed as a team. Bass and Wilcox also practiced. I don't think O'Neill joined the team for practice though.
I agree that earlier in the year when they played dallas (1/11/12) after 4 straight days of no games, they should've been "rested", but that last time they were originally out of shape and doc rivers made them do conditioning during their days off. So, their very next game they were sore and exhausted. This time around, the celts players are in game shape and they had ample time to practice together, which they didn't really have much of before. Also, Rondo and Pierce stated over the break that their team was lacking offensive and defensive discipline and they planned to work on that during the break.
Anyways, I completely agree with you on much of what you said because the fact of the matter is the Cavs are competitive enough to be favorites in most of their home games. But, the Celtics are a veteran team that is actually rested this game, lol (first time all year). Also, do you think the "look ahead angle" matters for Cavs?
Boy, that's a lot of unquantifiable analysis.
Cleveland has one of the best 1-2 punches at PG in the league with Irving and Sessions. They are a surprisingly deep young team with guys like Thompson and Gee trying to prove themselves as everyday players. The Cavs are not a team that is going to look past anybody because their goal is improvement, not a deep playoff run (although that would be a nice bonus.)
As you said, the Celtics have a sense of urgency that borders on desperation. This is an old team who's championship window narrows every day. They don't have the luxury of playing day-by-day with an aim on improving. Boston against an dog on the first leg of a b2b will always be a look-ahead/save your legs game but Cleveland is looking to get this win so they can play with house money in New York tomorrow.
Remember to be conscious of halftime hedges on these plays. Hedging is part of bankroll management, and an integral part of risk management. Hedging sells part of the risk associated with your play for a chance of hitting a middle to cash both your original and hedge bet.
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Remember to be conscious of halftime hedges on these plays. Hedging is part of bankroll management, and an integral part of risk management. Hedging sells part of the risk associated with your play for a chance of hitting a middle to cash both your original and hedge bet.
Cleveland has one of the best 1-2 punches at PG in the league with Irving and Sessions. They are a surprisingly deep young team with guys like Thompson and Gee trying to prove themselves as everyday players. The Cavs are not a team that is going to look past anybody because their goal is improvement, not a deep playoff run (although that would be a nice bonus.)
As you said, the Celtics have a sense of urgency that borders on desperation. This is an old team who's championship window narrows every day. They don't have the luxury of playing day-by-day with an aim on improving. Boston against an dog on the first leg of a b2b will always be a look-ahead/save your legs game but Cleveland is looking to get this win so they can play with house money in New York tomorrow.
Yeah...these unquantifiable factors make me feel like the "square" play is the right play this one instance. I'll most likely not touch this game, but I appreciate your analysis. I'll keep looking out for your perspective.
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Quote Originally Posted by capperintuition:
Boy, that's a lot of unquantifiable analysis.
Cleveland has one of the best 1-2 punches at PG in the league with Irving and Sessions. They are a surprisingly deep young team with guys like Thompson and Gee trying to prove themselves as everyday players. The Cavs are not a team that is going to look past anybody because their goal is improvement, not a deep playoff run (although that would be a nice bonus.)
As you said, the Celtics have a sense of urgency that borders on desperation. This is an old team who's championship window narrows every day. They don't have the luxury of playing day-by-day with an aim on improving. Boston against an dog on the first leg of a b2b will always be a look-ahead/save your legs game but Cleveland is looking to get this win so they can play with house money in New York tomorrow.
Yeah...these unquantifiable factors make me feel like the "square" play is the right play this one instance. I'll most likely not touch this game, but I appreciate your analysis. I'll keep looking out for your perspective.
Everything must be 5-points to elicit a play, except for home dogs. home teams and underdogs have been shown to be undervalued by ~2% each, so there is enough implicit value to tip the scales. Home favs and road dogs do not hold additional implicit value, so they must have a 5-point ATS edge.
So using the Detroit game as an example, being at home and a dog gives an extra 4% of value not accounted for in the scoring table, and a 4 pt. edge based on he scoring table then becomes playable?
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Quote Originally Posted by capperintuition:
Everything must be 5-points to elicit a play, except for home dogs. home teams and underdogs have been shown to be undervalued by ~2% each, so there is enough implicit value to tip the scales. Home favs and road dogs do not hold additional implicit value, so they must have a 5-point ATS edge.
So using the Detroit game as an example, being at home and a dog gives an extra 4% of value not accounted for in the scoring table, and a 4 pt. edge based on he scoring table then becomes playable?
Whats up 33.. I now see another wannabe TOUT boxed in this thread also and 1 soon Wnnabe TOUT thats gonna be boxed or banned...
Exactly; this Imakesplays guy is 22 and said he is a professional handicapper for 3 years and he doent even post units and then look at all of his garbage ass plays. He was on Illini and the under and I immediately faded him with Michigan and the over. EASY 2 winners
Then he is talking crap about Orlando and they dont cover. Professional capper my ass
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Quote Originally Posted by tinoker55:
Whats up 33.. I now see another wannabe TOUT boxed in this thread also and 1 soon Wnnabe TOUT thats gonna be boxed or banned...
Exactly; this Imakesplays guy is 22 and said he is a professional handicapper for 3 years and he doent even post units and then look at all of his garbage ass plays. He was on Illini and the under and I immediately faded him with Michigan and the over. EASY 2 winners
Then he is talking crap about Orlando and they dont cover. Professional capper my ass
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