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Posted: #1
Right now I'm interested in:

DC + points - they've played Indy very close this year and could've won either matchup.  If DC is playing DD, I'll probably take it.

GSW +1.5 - have to take some time and sleep on this one for sure.  I know Clippers are probably angry but they travel here doesn't make much sense.  They likely had scouts at tonight's game taking observations on how to dismantle the pick and roll. I don't see why two teams cannot do it in a row.  David Lee playing at a high level right now.

Toronto - like them up to -6.5.  They have been slowly coming together and playing great on both sides of the ball lately.  Not having Bargnani has proven to be beneficial towards the team and maybe they should look into a trade soon.  Other teams could definitely use him in their systems, but in Toronto he's likely going to screw up some of the flow of the game when he comes back.  I love Lillard as my ROY pick @ +700, but I think him and Lowry and quite evenly matched.  Possible under play here as well with Portland on the B2B. 

As Always Good Luck in the Association today!

 
 
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Posted: #2
Quote Originally Posted by Mikado:

Right now I'm interested in:

DC + points - they've played Indy very close this year and could've won either matchup.  If DC is playing DD, I'll probably take it.

GSW +1.5 - have to take some time and sleep on this one for sure.  I know Clippers are probably angry but they travel here doesn't make much sense.  They likely had scouts at tonight's game taking observations on how to dismantle the pick and roll. I don't see why two teams cannot do it in a row.  David Lee playing at a high level right now.

Toronto - like them up to -6.5.  They have been slowly coming together and playing great on both sides of the ball lately.  Not having Bargnani has proven to be beneficial towards the team and maybe they should look into a trade soon.  Other teams could definitely use him in their systems, but in Toronto he's likely going to screw up some of the flow of the game when he comes back.  I love Lillard as my ROY pick @ +700, but I think him and Lowry and quite evenly matched.  Possible under play here as well with Portland on the B2B. 

As Always Good Luck in the Association today!

 
bwin has tor-1.5 wsh +10
 
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Posted: #3
Cannot understand the GSW line.  The line could have easily been set for -3 or -4 GSW. 
 
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Posted: #4
hey mikado! vegas just make the lines, you think they know that much more than us??? may be, may be not. we watch all the possible games, we got the info about the line up. 
who do you think win the game tmmr?
i think gsate.
so what is the line? +1.5 , good for me.

 
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Posted: #5
to be real honest you, vegas had to set denver -3 last night
ok they wouldnt split the action, they would get too much clippers
but anyway since when vegas have 50 50 actions?
i always hear 75% action is there, vegas had a losing day or winning 
they are also gambling.
ty lawson injury should may be move 1 point or half.
i would bet denver up to -3.5 last night, so it indicates people are blind backing the clippers now.
tmmr again we will see clippers action, sure they can win but i just think they lose again and return home.
 
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Posted: #6
Good luck Mikado!
 
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Posted: #7
Quote Originally Posted by kevinkim:

hey mikado! vegas just make the lines, you think they know that much more than us??? may be, may be not. we watch all the possible games, we got the info about the line up. 
who do you think win the game tmmr?
i think gsate.
so what is the line? +1.5 , good for me.


Linemakers always know more than us.  

It is up to us to decide which type of information is the most valuable towards picking a winner.  

I could care less about streaks and trends on a particular game.   


 
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Posted: #8
Quote Originally Posted by kevinkim:

to be real honest you, vegas had to set denver -3 last night
ok they wouldnt split the action, they would get too much clippers
but anyway since when vegas have 50 50 actions?
i always hear 75% action is there, vegas had a losing day or winning 
they are also gambling.
ty lawson injury should may be move 1 point or half.
i would bet denver up to -3.5 last night, so it indicates people are blind backing the clippers now.
tmmr again we will see clippers action, sure they can win but i just think they lose again and return home.

Regardless Doug Moe's system showed Nuggets +7 and LAC +5 in this game if you discount the first 10 games.  Throw in Home Court Advantage, Revenge Factors, Poor Offensive Performance last time out.  I kinda anticipated Ty would either be out or limited - which made it more of a play for me than my normal 3.3 size plays as Miller is much better at defending the pick and roll.  


BTW - LAC and GSW are both +7 in his system.  

 
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Posted: #9
books will still get a stack of coin on LAC tomorrow.

gsw roll
 
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Posted: #10
Quote Originally Posted by Mikado:


Linemakers always know more than us.  

It is up to us to decide which type of information is the most valuable towards picking a winner.  

I could care less about streaks and trends on a particular game.   


linemakers always know more than us?
what do they know more? 
at the end its gambling...

 
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Posted: #11
Mikado I'm going with you for the 3 picks I need! Don't let me down, no pressure.
 
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Posted: #12
Of course it's gambling, but you are a rookie to think that the books don't know more than us. They have a team of staff that crunch numbers and analyze everything, more than you can even imagine. They are still in business for a reason, they know way more than any of us.

We just have to be disciplined and pick our spots when we can.
 
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Posted: #13
With you on GSW here Mikado -- too "easy" to take LAC, "no way they lose two games in a row", etc. GSW is clicking on all cylinders right now and they are playing like beasts offensively. LAC on a bad travel spot and GSW has had three days off since their BOS home win and have two days off before they get LAC again in Los Angeles. They'll want to play their fools off to get their win at home and take the split against LAC.
 
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Posted: #14
Quote Originally Posted by kaponofor3:

With you on GSW here Mikado -- too "easy" to take LAC, "no way they lose two games in a row", etc. GSW is clicking on all cylinders right now and they are playing like beasts offensively. LAC on a bad travel spot and GSW has had three days off since their BOS home win and have two days off before they get LAC again in Los Angeles. They'll want to play their fools off to get their win at home and take the split against LAC.


I don't understand it.  If this was such a bad spot of LAC (I know of all the factors) why would they still get -1.5.  Sharp bettors should drop this line to pick if it was really that type of play.  I cannot see linemakers trying to use some reverse psychology with this game.  All of the astute bettors of the NBA should be all over GSW - yet many are just as timid as I am to play this game. 

In my opinion this game will be very close - they play each other twice here over the next few days.  I think they trade wins with each other. 

Agreed travel is horrid - but last night was LAC's worst performance of the season. 
 
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Posted: #15
Quote Originally Posted by need3winningpic:

Mikado I'm going with you for the 3 picks I need! Don't let me down, no pressure.


Seriously if you NEED picks, I wouldn't suggest hanging around this forum to find winners.  If you found yourself in the situation where you need money - there are much better options to make money instead of gambling.  Think of becoming a bartender, plow snow, be an attendant for an old lady. All much better options for a sustainable income outside of gambling.

You will never learn to win if you tail people constantly.  Learning from your gambling mistakes is what makes us winners in the long run.  Enjoy a loss just as much as a win. 
 
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Posted: #16
Best of Luck 
 
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Posted: #17
Adding:

DC 3.3 to win 3
DC ML .5 to win 2.75

Yes DC may not have a great record, but they have played in a lot of close game this season.  Throw in the fact there has been a Nene sighting in DC lately and they may have a fresh point in this matchup - I like DC to keep it close - maybe even win.  DC has played well against Indy as well as other half-court based teams. 
Don't let DC fool you - they are one of the best at defending in transition and aren't bad overall.  Most of their problems stems from their offense.  However if DC can make it to 90 tonight - I think that gives them a great chance of covering and possibly winning. 

Refs are slightly advantageous to DC.  Marc Davis likes to call a lot of offensive and loose ball fouls.  In addition, Davis also allows for pretty physical play in the paint (which should hurt Indy most as they try to get to the line often to win games).  BTW - Marc Davis officiated the DC win over MIA this year for what it's worth.  Also Sean Corbin rarely lets games get out of hand.  Typically his games do not see blowouts or big leads being established.  An equalizer in a way to keep people from turning off or walking away from the game IMO.


 
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Posted: #18
Mikado - Any thoughts on the Grizzlies/Celtics game? I'm from Boston and am a big Celtics fan, but I feel like Celtics can't match up to any team that has a big inside presence or a fast pace team.

The Celtics are the worst rebounding team. With Rondo questionable and not penetrating, the Celtics offensive weapons are pretty much KG jumpshot/post play, Pierce jumper, or JET jumper.

I don't see how the Grizzlies just don't pound the crap out of the Celtics inside the paint with Gasol and Z-Bo and win by 8+ points.
 
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Posted: #19
Quote Originally Posted by Mikado:



I don't understand it.  If this was such a bad spot of LAC (I know of all the factors) why would they still get -1.5.  Sharp bettors should drop this line to pick if it was really that type of play.  I cannot see linemakers trying to use some reverse psychology with this game.  All of the astute bettors of the NBA should be all over GSW - yet many are just as timid as I am to play this game. 

In my opinion this game will be very close - they play each other twice here over the next few days.  I think they trade wins with each other. 

Agreed travel is horrid - but last night was LAC's worst performance of the season. 

agree with u there mikado, i picked denver last night and said GSW will beat them too, and yet when i look at the line now im timid wheter to play it big or not. this line REALLY doesnt make any sense and it doesnt move the way it was supposed to... its just weird
 
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Posted: #20
gl with the wizz
 
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Posted: #21

Are you still looking at the game in TOR?

I'm leaning toward TOR -4.5 and the Under.

 
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Posted: #22
Quote Originally Posted by playing4mylife:

Mikado - Any thoughts on the Grizzlies/Celtics game? I'm from Boston and am a big Celtics fan, but I feel like Celtics can't match up to any team that has a big inside presence or a fast pace team.

The Celtics are the worst rebounding team. With Rondo questionable and not penetrating, the Celtics offensive weapons are pretty much KG jumpshot/post play, Pierce jumper, or JET jumper.

I don't see how the Grizzlies just don't pound the crap out of the Celtics inside the paint with Gasol and Z-Bo and win by 8+ points.


I agree with that point completely.  With the way Memphis rebounds (and lack of the way Boston does) - it only make sense to make Memphis the favorite.  However at the same time - I would say Boston has the ability to score more. 

One of the keys of the game for Boston to win would have to be to get some Grizz in foul trouble and go to the line often.  Celts also need to have less TO's than Grizz to win IMO.  This kinda comes down to Rondo's decision making ability.  If he's putting the ball in the right spot where his teammate's like it and they can shoot a high %... Then Boston can run all over Memphis.  But I think Memphis defense is a little too much in this one.  Doc isn't very confident in his rotations and there is obvious personnel problems going on.  I think he needs to tinker more with the starting lineups. 
 
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Posted: #23
Quote Originally Posted by Paulie_20:


agree with u there mikado, i picked denver last night and said GSW will beat them too, and yet when i look at the line now im timid wheter to play it big or not. this line REALLY doesnt make any sense and it doesnt move the way it was supposed to... its just weird


Glad I'm not the only one that feels this way.

I'm not going to force plays as it typically means winning at a lower %. 

Probably sticking with just DC tonight. 

I'm becoming slightly interested in a couple of totals though and I'll decide on them later:

Spurs/Bucks Under 202.5
Timberwolves/Jazz Under 197

Feel free to discuss.

 
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Posted: #24
I like the Under in Milwaukee as well, tough will probably prefer the first half bet, not the full game. 

Any thoughts on Hou/NO game? This looks like a game where Hornets can win SU.
Very similar teams I feel, with similar backcourt, Lopez and Asik cancelling each other out and Davis with Anderson can do some damage to the Rockets.
If Gordon and Anderson will hit three point shots, Houston will need to sweat for a win here...
 
 
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Posted: #25
Quote Originally Posted by dmitean:

I like the Under in Milwaukee as well, tough will probably prefer the first half bet, not the full game. 

Any thoughts on Hou/NO game? This looks like a game where Hornets can win SU.
Very similar teams I feel, with similar backcourt, Lopez and Asik cancelling each other out and Davis with Anderson can do some damage to the Rockets.
If Gordon and Anderson will hit three point shots, Houston will need to sweat for a win here...


Since about Mid-November - I promised myself I would only bet ON the Rockets from now on - not against.

I do actually like NO in this spot - but neither you nor I can predict with any kind of accuracy how Houston is going to play tonight.  Houston easily has the ability to play the game close until the final 2 or 3 minutes then just rain it for the cover.  Too many gamechangers game this game too hot to handle IMO. 

Anybody still talking smack about Jeremy Lin and Asik needs to seriously watching Rockets basketball.

I never thought I would say this, but I'm voting for Lin as All-star.  WTF? 

But no... I'm for real.  He's starting to play his contract's worth now.
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