Posted:
#1
Game: Nets @ Lakers
Line: Lakers -15 (Bodog)
Time: 9:30 EST
I'll get right to the point since my musings from my last post apparently appeal to NO ONE...
...
...Is there any defense for a team on the verge of joining the abominable, repulsive, wretched all-time basement dwellers...the Los Angeles Clippers...???
There CERTAINLY IS...
Reasons to take the Nets:
1. This Lakers simply do not cover lines this large.
Now I'm not crazy about trends but there are some that should be given credence. I checked back 2 years including all the games played this year and the Lakers are atrocious when it comes to covering large lines at home. I used -11.5 as my cutoff for "large lines." Why? Well 10 is usually a the point a team tries to stay at before the opposing team believes it has a chance to win...once they get it under 10, the normal game plays out...timeouts, fouling etc...when a game is clearly out of hand at 14 - 17 points, usually the other team is resigned to packing it in. Therefore, a point and a half beyond 10 IN MY OPINION is enough to be construed as an appealing option to bet on the opposition...how have the lakers fared in the past 2 years + (including this year's games)? 2 years which they went to the finals and lost and won the NBA championship...they are:
11-22 ATS (.333) covering a spread of -11.5 or greater at home.
I then looked at 'significantly large lines,' those lines that are 13.5 or greater. Why 13.5?...because I believe a line of 7 is the standard for a team who is an average home favorite, double that would be reserved for the elite teams vs. the worst of the worst. Therefore, any spread 13.5 to 14.5 could probably be found on any site (or if you bought the hook) so I subtracted a half point as a liberal adjustment.
The Lakers record covering lines of 13.5 or greater at home:
6-12 ATS (.333)
You want to put your money on a 33% probability go ahead. That's going all-in, drawing to a flush after the flop and you know how much many can be lost (and WON if you have a made hand) in that scenario.
33%...stats are shit in most instances...i don't think that's the case here...and if you want to cringe at how the Lakers don't cover big spreads in succession, check out 12/5/08 to 12/22/08...and yes that was essentially the same team without Gasol as well...0-10 
with some very large lines...
with some very large lines...2. Coach fired....Good for gameplan
Frank was an x's and o's guy...getting an A+ for preparation, analysis of gamefilm, directing practice, and creating an offense...BUT NOT FOR IN GAME COACHING...where the complexities during his timeouts probably had this young roster head's spinning and vomiting like the possessed girl in the EXORCIST. 
I think the FIRST order of business is to SIMPLIFY the offense (they are holding their own on defense). Simple pick and rolls etc. and the letting the offense flow without habitual timeouts should allow one thing and one thing only that we care about...TO STAY WITHIN 15 POINTS!!! Which i see occurring...
3. Collective NBA mercy
An intangible here and I saw it watching end of the games during the tale end of this Nets losing streak...These teams actually are laying off the Nets when the game is out of reach...several teams let the 24 second clock expire with > 24 seconds on the clock giving the ball back to the Nets who consequently also didn't shoot, helping the bettor avoid a backdoor in the last 40 seconds of the game. 40 seconds that have killed us ALL at one time or another....
As good as the Lakers are, as much as "Kobe won't let his team suffer a monumental upset," I see Phil and Kobe and even the reserves laying off if they are up by 10-14 points with under a minute left...even the Nets could backdoor it for us with a late 3 and the Lakers holding the ball..that's the adanatage of 7 baskets and a free throw
This is a RECORD TYING GAME against the NBA champions...I don't really see the Lakers trying to bust their ass two nights in a row to stick it to a team on the precipice of falling into the abyss after they just waxed Golden state last night...I can tell you this...the nets WILL bust their ass tonight...as untalented as that ass is perceived
some small sidenotes: the whole world on the Lakers 75% and the fact I just mentioned...this is a Back to Back and they did just drop 130 last night ...no need to add salt to the wound...
and the fact I just mentioned...this is a Back to Back and they did just drop 130 last night ...no need to add salt to the wound...IN SUMMATION...the 15 is just too much of a cushion when history is a balance, a team that has a simple gameplan (FUCKING SCORE SOME POINTS), just got it's coach fired, and will be on the cover of EVERY SINGLE Internet sports page tomorrow if they drop this game...
PICK: NETS +15 OVER LAKERS
$5 to win $62.50 on the moneyline +1250 ...i couldn't resist 
0
you suffered if you were on the Texans up 17-0 today) and the end result is the same one we are all trying to achieve...A BIGGER 
Why would you play this game anyway??? 
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