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* Oklahoma City Thunder @ San Antonio Spurs - Game 1 *

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Posts: 71

tairy_greene

Rookie

Joined: May, 2014

Posts: 723

Posted: May. 19, 2014 - 7:24 PM ET #26

Great write up

On em as well

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dtat0129

Prospect

Joined: Feb, 2013

Posts: 414

Posted: May. 19, 2014 - 7:24 PM ET #27

Quote Originally Posted by MuggsyBogues:

How good has Oklahoma bench has been this season?

We've heard all about Spurs having the best bench and Portland the worst. How does OKC bench rate?

They started off the year well and have declined since really. The only real contributors they have now are Collison (who will probably start), Adams, Jackson and more recently acquired Butler. Lamb was a bigger piece earlier on in the year but his shooting has declined and so have his minutes. Jackson has been the biggest piece to OKC's success against the Spurs this year.

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LeagueCapper

Captain

Joined: Mar, 2011

Posts: 9317

Posted: May. 19, 2014 - 7:26 PM ET #28

Quote Originally Posted by TRAIN69:

Total thoughts?

I would lean under, each team will be giving the other new looks on defense. Not a play though

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LeagueCapper

Captain

Joined: Mar, 2011

Posts: 9317

Posted: May. 19, 2014 - 7:27 PM ET #29

Quote Originally Posted by promaster13:

If you have read any of LC posts, he pretty much picks the thunder or skips. Like your picks but you are obviously buyest towards the thunder. Can't deny it.

Faded them two games in a row and won both. But your free to think what you want.

https://www.covers.com/postingforum/post01/showmessage.aspx?spt=22&sub=101874379

https://www.covers.com/postingforum/post01/showmessage.aspx?spt=22&sub=101876466

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smartbets

Captain

Joined: Apr, 2009

Posts: 7806

Posted: May. 19, 2014 - 7:30 PM ET #30

Yeah LC, you're "buyest"

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Jailbait7127

Captain

Joined: Dec, 2013

Posts: 6715

Posted: May. 19, 2014 - 7:31 PM ET #31

Lmao he can't even spell biased HAHAHAHAHAHAHHAAH

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scalabrine

Banned

Joined: Sep, 2006

Posts: 28221

Posted: May. 19, 2014 - 7:49 PM ET #32

First off, excellent write-up. The argumentation makes for a compelling side to take the Thunder. One of your best write-ups this year.

Some issues:

The quiet acknowledgement of the stats for the Spurs with Ibaka out. The reason you may have not stated them directly is because they are eye-popping in favor of San Antonio and can't be understated. They sully a Thunder side quite conspicuously.

BBoy had a write up about game 1's and their importance in defining a series. He stated in part, that given San Antonio's failures against OKC this year (0-4 ATS and SU), this will be the game to tell them they are here and ready for action and it must come in the form of a statement victory. Whether he's still on the Spurs is irrelevant, the point he made about game 1 is no less relevant now than before the Ibaka injury.

Lastly, it's almost as if this Ibaka injury has become too public. The Canadians just lost their goalie today and no one knows if these backup goalies can do anything against the Rangers, or who they even are. There is a lot of confusion and uncertainty with both the line in Vegas and how the rangers will respond (ie will they take it a bit easier with the replacement goalie replacing a gold medalist in this year's Olympics). The Canadians will certainly step up their game offensively to compensate on their home ice.

Why this differs from Ibaka is that the Ibaka injury information has been available now for almost 3 full days. A late scratch throws players into flux but Pop has had three days to gameplan for any scenario Brooks will prepare, and he is the best of the best at countering any such s scheme. The Ibaka injury has now become 'too public' IMO. And Pop can really swarm on Durant, forcing everyone else to beat him. He's had 4 failures this year to iron out mistakes in this area.

I will say Ibaka is worth more than the 1/1.5 pts this line moved which you are buying up to 7, so that does concern me, that is, the line is still enticing for a Spurs side which reeks of herding squares getting burned.

But I will be dealing with a line of 5.5 and if I don't have my team capped to win at 4/5, I don't rely on the line. It simply is not enough points to get me a win consistently in terms of maximizing a spread's effect. Therefore to get over 5 pts given all the above is a risk I'm willing to take.

While you played the ML, that is a 'sprinkle' vs. a mammoth 5 unit bet in comparison to the spread play. So the spread with the added juice is really what you are counting on to bring this home. It's just too small a window if you didn't have the thunder capped to win outright, which I don't think you do given the 1 unit bet, and the caveats about how the Thunder could possibly fail here.

And I simply can't back the thunder here for all the above stated reasons. While I'm not playing this large, it's Spurs -5 with a purchased hook for me.

Again, excellent write-up and good luck.