Oklahoma City Thunder @ San Antonio Spurs
Does anyone remember my writeup for game 1 of Warriors/Clippers in the first round?
"Noone is giving GS a chance now that Bogut is out. Let's not forget this team won 6 playoff games last year, they've been here before."
Nobody gave GS the slimmest of chances after Bogut was ruled out for the rest of the playoffs. Stephan Curry and the rest of the boys had to listen to everyone say they no longer can surpass the first round against LAC all week yet everyone seemed to forget their playoff run from a year ago winning 6 playoff games. There an experienced bunch, they ended up winning game 1 SU as 7.5 point underdogs and taking the Clippers to game 7 where they were seconds away from a victory.
We have a similar scenario here, except this play is much better for one reason. Kevin Durant. No player in the league is better when people start doubting him or his team. When the Oklahoman came out and called Durant Mr. Unreliable, his next game included 36 points, 10 rebounds, 2 assists, 1 block, 1 steal, a +- of +27, and a 20 point road victory that was never in doubt. KD feeds on these moments. The Thunder aren't going to roll over because Ibaka is now ruled out. Parker will have a much easier time in the paint with Ibaka gone but Westbrook is a nightmare matchup for him.
I'm aware of the Spurs numbers against the Thunder this year with and without Ibaka on the floor but now they get a chance to gameplan knowing he'll be out. I’ve always been one to discredit Scott Brooks and his coaching staff, but he might have just outcoached Doc Rivers in the last round. After game 1 where CP3 shot lights out, the Thunder preceded to win 4 of the next 5 games against a coach that has proven he could make adjustments as good as any coach in the league.
People claimed no way a team-oriented Clippers team would lose the series to a bad decision-making jump shooting team but the Thunder proved there style of basketball can beat anyone. Tony Parker will need to play lights out going up against Westbrook, but he's not even 100%. He was limited in practice on Saturday before game 1 of the Western Conference Finals. Anyone who thinks he'll be 100% is mistaken. The Thunder aren't 10-2 against the Spurs the last 12 games because of Ibaka, it is because of there athleticism. People are overreacting.
This should be the Thunder's best road game of the series. Brooks hasn't even announced who will start in Ibaka's place, no-one knows what schemes he will come up with to disguise Serge being out but he'll definitely have something up his sleeve. After this game however, the secret will be out and Papavich can make his adjustments. If the Thunder get blown out in San Antonio with the element of surprise and the added motivation to prove they can go the distance without Ibaka, they really have no chance in San Antonio all series long.
Playoffs:
- Spurs 5-6-1 ATS
- Thunder 7-5-1 ATS
Teams who cover less games through the first two rounds playing with more rest than there opponent are 1-8 ATS in the initial game of round 3, since 2002. The Thunder are battle-tested, they just beat a powerhouse Clippers team led by a Championship coach while the Spurs beat a Blazers team who's never been there before. Of course these numbers are skewed to both teams having there full roster so take it for what it's worth.
Westbrook, Sefolosha, and Perkins all missed 20+ games this year yet OKC still finished with the second best record in the league. Next man up.
- Thunder +7 (-125) (5x)
- Thunder +230 ML (1x)
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