One Goal - One Focus - One Mission

The last few months Ive really been analyzing sports betting in a different way than I have been (been betting for 20 years) and Ive finally decided to give this a real 100% shot and making some income consistently with this that we all love.

Ok so this last weekend has got me thinking. My picks are always good (50-58% range) , but since Im always going for the home run I end up doing dumb ass parlays and rolling over my wins onto the next bet and blah blah blah and end up just being like every other tool who loses their ass each week. So last night I started running #s on what I would need to do to actually do this for a living. Im not gonna try to do this for a living, but I would like to make some $ off it so I figured Id like to make about $2500/month from sports betting and what exactly would that take in reality (how much per bet/how much of a bankroll/ etc etc). Now Im not saying I can make $2500/month or Im "going pro" or any of that garbage, I just sat down and started running numbers on ACTUALLY how much you'd need to bet and how long and such to do it. I am by no means a rich or wealthy man, in fact, quite the opposite, but I do have a little stash of money set aside for a "rainy day" that I can take to give this one good shot.

So here is Phase 1. Im gonna take $5,000 and try to double it in 30-60 days. I will bet approx 10% of the bankroll ($500) on each game to start. I will be listing daily current bankroll, win/loss record, and each bet detailed. I should have approx 60-80 games/month. Instead of just talking about doing it Im gonna try to actually do it, bet by bet, day by day and see if, done properly, I can make consistent money.

All/most of my picks come from approx 8 "systems" I have found using a sports database. Lemme say Im not a "system" guy and maybe thats not even the right word to use but I have about 8 different angles I look at for each game and see if they apply. 95% of my bets will be NBA, if not 98%+.

Maybe I'll flame out and lose my roll as 10% starting amount/bet is very high but maybe it'll work out, either way Im sick of sitting around saying "what if" and Im going for it. Comments welcome, thx for reading


Beginning Bankroll : $5,000
Record - (0-0)


Tonite :

Orlando at San Antonio Over 196.5 (+105)   $500 for $525

Welcome & GL

Thx a lot, Im really excited

One more game tonite



Phoenix at Houston Under 213.5 (-102)   $510 for $500

i like ur approach.  good luck tonight.  i have some perspectives on ur goals i would like to exchange notes someday

Kudos man - I wish I had the discipline to do this.

I will be paying close attention.

Already on both those plays tonight so good luck to us both.

Firstly, I wish you all the best. Making money betting sports is a difficult business and I only aspire that one day I can do the same.

Secondly, as you already seem to know, 10% per bet is extremely high. As great of a capper as you may be, going say 30-30 in a month, on -107 average odds, has lost you approx 20% of your roll to juice.

50-58% is a huge gap in your picks, given then you need to go just under 54% to breakeven (assuming -110 odds), you have listed a range +- 4%.

I don't want to seem like a huge downer, I just wanted to point some things out for you to consider. Take it for what it's worth.

Set realistic goals. With a $5k investment and looking to double it seems like you subconsciously know its a long shot. Work hard to save your money if you really believe in yourself. And increase your betting amounts as you can contribute to your bankroll accordingly. Its a long term plan...your title states it well. You'll hear countless times on this forum that "It's a marathon not a race".

Again, I know I sound super pessimisstic, but please consider the money mgmt.

In either case, I wish you well.

 

BOL on the SAS/ORL Over with you 

Lofty goal, I hope you can achieve it!!!


Good Luck

Thx for the reply and I agree with all of what you said. Heres a couple things I didnt get into in my original post that I'll get into a lot more as time goes by.

First off, my money management plan and the fact that 98% of my games are are at -105 to +115 pretty much makes me juice free as far as my record goes, in other words as long as Im above .500 I will be up $.

Second, the more of a bankroll I have the lower the percentage #. My dream ( I stress DREAM) bankroll would be $100,000/1%. I also used to want to adjust my bet amounts daily as my bankroll grows or falls but for this first phase Im strictly gonna shoot for "10 games over .500 before 10 games under" and that'll be a double-up.

I have ran numbers on literally hundreds of different bankroll scenarios and I decided for Phase 1 to try this. My goal is just to get 10 games over .500 before 10 games under. I feel very confident due to the system results I have for the 8 combined angles.

Here are the last 10 year records for my #s, remember my money management and low low and PLUS juice each game above .500 is basically a clean +1.0 unit.

Here are the last 10 years : like I said, the winning percenatges are nothing great at all, but the consistency along with my money management system its a winner

2009-10 - (273-228)  54.5%  +45 games over .500
2008-09 - (232-199)  53.8%  +33
2007-08 - (281-226)  55.4%  +55
2006-07 - (310-268)  53.6%  +42
2005-06 - (271-222)  55.0%  +49
2004-05 - (256-232)  52.5%  +24
2003-04 - (264-240)  52.4%  +24
2002-03 - (266-234)  53.2%  +32
2001-02 - (254-233)  52.2%  +31
2000-01 - (254-241)  51.3%  +13

dindimucci

sabia

teaseitbaby

kidnamedcudi


venividivici

Best of luck brotherman! I'll be following you

Bankroll - $5,015
Record - (1-1)  +$15


Today :

Charlotte at Knicks UNDER 204.5 (-109)   $545 for $500

Chicago at Lakers UNDER 201.5 (-109)   $545 for $500

Bankroll - $4,970   -0.6%
Record - (2-2) -$30


Today :

Knicks/Charlotte Under 205.5 (-106)  $530 for $500

Milwaukee/Cleveland Under 186 (-108)  $540 for $500

Spurs/Minnesota Under 213.5 (+107)  $500 for $535

Golden St./Houston Under 214.5 (-102)  $520 for $500

New Orleans/Utah Over 193.5 (-105)  $525 for $500


Lets do this

gs.hou is 510 for 500

Hope this works out for you. I'll be following in. 

its not my place to tell you what to do but betting $2615 of a $4970 bankroll in 1 night is never going to win in the long term as you wish to do. If you are going to bet this many games lower your wager amount. If you insist on betting to win $500 each game play 1 but no more than 2 games a day. That is still awful large wager for a $5000 bankroll. Good luck to you

Bankroll - $5,445  +8.9%
Record - (5-4)  +$445

Thanksgiving :

Washington/Atlanta OVER 196.5 (-102)    $536 for $525

Sacramento/Clippers UNDER 193.5 (-107)  $562 for $525


GL

Bankroll - $6,495   +29.9%
Record - (7-4)  +$1495


Will have at least 4 plays today

On a good streak so far.  Good luck

Thx a lot, got big plans for the next 8-12 months, hopefully it all works out + hopefully you stick around

watching this forum a lot of years, gl to your plan
i will watch that post for sure
keep it going