one [WIN] a day, let's all help each other and get [PAID]

A good read for some of you new or casual bettors out there:

Sports betting is full of traps for the casual bettor. Sportsbooks are in the business of making money, so they have to find as many ways as they can to siphon the money out of unprotected wallets. Smart bettors – or those who aspire to be – can recognize some of those traps and work hard to avoid them. Here are six of the most common traps bettors fall into:

Betting parlays or exotics – Sportsbooks love parlays, teasers and every other type of exotic bets that offer big potential payouts. That's why they promote them so heavily at every opportunity. Their love comes from two places. First, bettors love the bets thanks to the promise of big payouts, so the bets produce a lot of revenue. More significantly, the odds for these bets are stacked strongly in favor of the books. The potential payouts for most exotic bets are less – and often far less – than the risk involved in the bets, so over the long term the books can't lose. In fact, over the long term they are all but guaranteed to make a killing on these bets. Smart bettors hate making bets in which they don't have a solid edge – an expectation over the long term of making a profit – so they are very cautious about these bets, and only bet them in the very rare cases where they make good sense.

Taking the first number he sees – A lot of casual bettors focus their efforts on deciding who is going to win the game or cover the spread. That's important, of course, but just as important is making sure that you are getting the best line you can possibly get in every circumstance. There are some books out there that throughout unattractive lines in hopes of luring unsuspecting bettors in. Most books have better lines in some sports or some circumstances than others. Even a have point on a spread, or a few points of juice, can make a huge difference to your bottom line over the course of the season. Smart bettors know this and seek out the best line they can – and don't bet when they don't find the line they like. Casual bettors just bet the games they want to bet at almost any price.

Buying into hype – Smart bettors know that the only thing that matters is the handicapping – what their analysis says about a game and how it should turn out. Casual bettors will often look beyond that handicapping and buy into the hype that the media is spreading – a player who is hot, a team that seems great on paper, a flashy trade, an injury, and so on. Oddsmakers are far from stupid, so if they know that the public is going to be overly excited about a team for some reason then chances are they will adjust the line in their favor. That doesn't mean that you can't bet on a heavily hyped team – sometimes hype is justified. It just means that you need to be aware of the situation, and comfortable with the fact that the line could be worse than it would otherwise be in this situation.

Accepting what he reads without evaluation – There is a virtually endless supply of insight and analysis online, in print, and on radio and TV. You would have to be blind and deaf to avoid it. There's nothing wrong at all with reading and listening and watching as much as you want to watch – knowledge is a good thing. Where people get in trouble, though, is when they accept what they hear without question. A lot of what you read and here is pretty good, but a fair bit of it isn't particularly accurate. Smart bettors don't act on anything until they have confirmed that it is true for themselves.

Favoring some teams – It's no secret that some teams are just more attractive and interesting than others. It's way easier to get excited about the Colts than the Bills, for example. Casual bettors get seduced by the interesting games and bet on them more often than the rest of the teams. Smart bettors know that the less interest there is in a game the more chance there is that there can be good value in that game. They know that at the end of the day your results aren't based on how interesting a game is, but how many bets you win and lose. Smart bettors, then, look for the games they can win, not the ones that they care about.

Betting the better team – Casual bettors think that the point of handicapping a game is to figure out which team is better. That's far from the truth. Smart bettors know that the point is actually to figure out how the chances of the teams relate to the odds that are available, and where the value is as a result. Smart bettors don't care at all about betting on the better team – they care about betting on the team that gives them the better chance of making a profit.

Another good article for you to read:

One of the terms we heard thrown about a lot when it comes to sports betting is 'smart money'. It's a very important concept for sports bettors to understand, but it's largely misunderstood and misused.

Simply put, the smart money is the money bet by the sharps. Sharps can be defined in a number of ways, but basically they are the professional sports bettors who have better knowledge, do more and better research, have bigger bankrolls, and have a better long term expectation of profit than the typical bettor. Another way to look at it is that the smart money is the opposite of the public money, and the public money is what the large majority of bettors bet.

The single most important thing to know about smart money is that sports books are very good at identifying it and knowing how it is acting (i.e. where and when it is being bet on a particular game) and how it is likely to act in the future. Books do not like losing money, and they know that because smart money is being bet with the intention of making a long term profit and backed with the knowledge to do so. That means that they are going to be far more afraid of smart money than they are of public money – because there is a long term expectation that the public will lose the money they bet. That in turn means that books will respond much faster to the smart money – by adjusting their odds to balance action – far more quickly than they will typically respond to the public money.

Another thing to keep in mind when looking at smart money is that there aren't nearly as many sharps out there are people think they are. People who bet on sports have egos – they have to or they wouldn't be interested in trying to predict the future and outsmart the oddsmakers. Because of those egos the large majority of sports bettors think that they have a much bigger edge than they actually do, and that they are far more insightful and effective handicappers than they actually are. Smart money can be very useful to observe, and can show you valuable ways to act, but it is very important that you are reasonably sure you are actually seeing the smart money in action before you do so – not just the action of someone who thinks that he is sharp but really isn't.

Why is the smart money important for average bettors? For one thing the smart money is what is going to move the odds in a game. If you can have a sense of which side the smart money is on and how aggressively it is on that side then you can time your bets to get the best possible price for your opinion. That might sound complicated, but it really isn't. Let's say for example that your handicapping has led you to really like a three point underdog in a football game. If the smart money is on your side of the game as well then the odds are only going to get worse for you – you're team will become two point underdogs or worse. In that case it would make sense to make the bet as soon as you can to get the best price – especially if you can bet to get the key number on your side. On the other hand, if the smart money is on the other side then there is a good chance that the odds for your side are only going to get better the longer you wait, so there is no reason to bet before you have to.

That brings up an important point to remember – smart money wins more often than the public money, but it still loses fairly often. Over the long term there isn't anyone that can beat the point spread more than 60 percent of the time. That means that about four out of 10 smart money bets are going to be losers. Some bettors use smart money as a guide and refuse to bet against it. That just limits your opportunities. If the smart money is clearly on the other side of a game than you are then you should definitely look at the game again to make sure you are confident in your position, but if your handicapping supports your position and you trust it then there is no reason not to make your bet. As I said before, betting against the smart money can help you get great prices.

Smart money can also be useful to spot particularly interesting games. You can't just look up a website that will tell you where the smart money is in every game, but there are ways that you can easily spot it. One of the best ways is to look for games where the large majority of bets have been placed on one team – more than 70 percent of all bets. When that happens we would typically expect the line to move to make the side that all of those bets are on less attractive. In some games, though, the line will actually move to make that side more attractive. That means that even though most of the bets are on one side the books aren't afraid of taking even more action on that side. That probably means that the smart money is on the side that the public isn't on. That, in turn, means that the team that the smart money on is probably worth a very close look. That's especially true when the line in question has moved through one of the key numbers of three or seven.

One final thought about smart money – timing can be very important. Once you get comfortable with it you can spot where the smart money is being played reasonably easy. It often takes a while to spot the action, though, and often times you can't spot it until after the action has been laid and the line has moved. If you bet on the same side that the smart money has bet on then you are doing it at a different price than they got, and you may not be getting any value. You certainly won't be getting as much value as the smart money did. For that reason it is very important not to rely on what the smart money is doing too much – unless you have access to their research and the bets they are making just as they make it you aren't going to have the same success they are. In short, pay attention to smart money, but be sure to do it very cautiously.

There are two types of teams that have been eliminated from NBA playoff contention before the season ends – those that are still playing hard and being competitive, and those that are just mailing it in and waiting for the end of the season to put them out of their misery. Being able to tell which teams fit into which categories is an important skill for bettors down the stretch. It can allow them to get some fat moneyline winners if the team is trying hard, and to cash in on betting favorites if they are just mailing it in. Here are five ways you can start to determine which category a given team belongs in:

Statistical comparison of last 10 games to the season – I am a big believer in comparing recent performance to season long performance. The betting public relies heavily on the most easily available statistics, and those are season long ones – the types published in the paper and on popular websites. The problem, though, is that by the end of the season the sample size is quite large, and the earliest games in that sample occurred months earlier. A team could be playing much better or worse now than they have been overall, but it might not be accurately reflected in that record. To counter that I like to compare some basic statistics from the whole season – shooting percentage, eFG, assists/turnovers and so on – to how the team has performed over their last 10 games. If the numbers are basically the same then the team is probably basically the one we have seen all year. If there is a significant difference, though, then we have an interesting situation. If the last 10 games' stats are significantly better then we have a situation where the team could quietly be improved recently, and that could lead to value as the team exceeds public expectations. If the recent numbers are well below the season numbers then the team could really be packing it in, and there could be value in betting the favorites – perhaps even in betting them at a big price.

Roster changes – Teams that are still trying hard and looking to win even though the playoffs are out of the question are going to be making roster decisions that give them the best chance of winning. Their starters will still be playing fill minutes, and their bench will be used in about the same way that it always has been. Teams that are mailing it in are far more likely to make changes. Star players could be given games off, or could be relegated to the bench much earlier in the game than normal. Young or fringe players could be given much more playing time so teams can assess what they have going forward. Teams that want to win put their best possible roster forward, while teams looking forward to next year usually don't.

Status of coach – The surest sign of which category a team fits in comes down to how stable the coach in his job. If the guy is making progress and is clearly popular with his players and well entrenched in his position then there is a good chance that the team will be playing well for him because he will be able to communicate that the struggles now are a step towards progress. If the coach is clearly about to lose his job, or if it even appears likely, then it is far less likely that the players will play well for him because they have no reason to. A team with a coach who is about to be fired is very likely a team that is going to struggle down the stretch. There is a rare exception to that, though. If the coach is likely to get fired but is loved by his players then there is a chance that the team will play extra hard down the stretch to try to save him. That can happen, but it is by far the exception to the rule.

Health – If a team is beat up and injured then it will be very hard for them to get motivated down the stretch. Teams that have struggled with injuries all season could be too frustrated to care anymore by the end of the season. On the other hand, if an injured player finally returns to action then he could give the team a boost down the stretch. You need to look at the overall health of the roster, and at changes in the roster as a result of injuries.

Is there still something to play for? – Sports fans are intensely focused on the playoffs – like that's the only thing that matters. Sometimes, though, teams know going into the season that they aren't likely to make the playoffs. If that's the case but they are moving in a positive direction then they could still have a lot to play for even once the playoff dream is dead. Can they win more games than they did last year, or more games than they have won in the last five years? Can they double their win total from last year? Do they have a chance to reach significant statistical milestones as a team – like having a top five defense or offense? Is a star player or a team leader on the verge of a major achievement in his career? Any one of these factors can provide major motivation for the team despite the fact that their season will end when the regular season does.

I like hawks -1.5 or ML

Pacer shooting 37% on the road, and have really not shown anything worth taking.......I think the ATL crowd will be jumping tonight....home team looks like the fav in this series

Awesome articles Tony!  One question about the "smart money" and line movement. I've seen plenty of games where line movement moved toward one team, and the other team covered easily. In short, line movement was wrong.  If I tried betting on line movement alone, I'd probably lose over the long haul -- not because I'd bet after the line moved, but because the line movement itself was wrong about 50% of the time at least.

How can you discern when "smart money" moves lines vs the public moving lines?