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Orlando Series bet at -250 is this just free money or what?????????????

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Prospect
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Posted: #1
Im ready to lay down 5 dimes on this and I kno there are some out there that think that the cavs will be the 9th team in history to come back and win the series after being down 3-1, but this really looks like free money to me...after seeing what the magic have done to the Cavs all year. Any thoughts?
 
Legend
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Posted: #2
-250 doesn't seem right to a team leading 3-1. Fishy low, should be somewhere around -400.   
 
Legend
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Posted: #3
books are prolly afraid of a Cavs come back which is not totally out of the woods, yet. GL!  
 
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Posted: #4
wouldn't say free money, but its pretty good value, might not be a bad idea to wait till after 5 and you can get a much better number tho assuming the cavs win.
 
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Posted: #5
i look at it this way: you have 3 tries to be right.

the way they are playing is impressive...even on the road, they are giving the cavs fits right down to the wire...why? because they are just more talented...their coach isnt half bad either...no one can stop howard as a dominate force in the paint offensively and defensively...even if one of the orlando stars isn't scoring, the others seem to pick up the slack.

you're getting a better series price because of lebron, name alone - so it's definitely worth a great shot. hope that helps.
 
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Posted: #6
Quote Originally Posted by gollum:

wouldn't say free money, but its pretty good value, might not be a bad idea to wait till after 5 and you can get a much better number tho assuming the cavs win.

Hell thats when I'd would get worried, because with a win they'll have all kinds of momentum and whose the say Orlando can continue their hot shooting. I look for Orlando to win this 2morrow night, because I would be hedging my ass off at haltime of Game 6 if anything even looked suspicious in the game.

But as always take the Over because Orlando will make 3s while Cleveland will live at the FT line

 
MVP
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Posted: #7
Quote Originally Posted by Europa:

-250 doesn't seem right to a team leading 3-1. Fishy low, should be somewhere around -400.   



No it shouldnt. The Cavs will be -400 at home and pick em on the road. Parlay the 3 games and you get low +200s. Why is this so difficult for some of you to understand? It is a VERY simple concept.
 
Covers Rehab
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Posted: #8
Quote Originally Posted by rangerz2478:




No it shouldnt. The Cavs will be -400 at home and pick em on the road. Parlay the 3 games and you get low +200s. Why is this so difficult for some of you to understand? It is a VERY simple concept.
Seriously, people don't know how to calculate series prices. I don't understand people sometimes when they think they have found perceived value. More often than not they are deceived. 

In my opinion rather than laying -250 if you like orlando you should just play them in game 6, and if they win in 5 or 7 you can bash me...I just don't see it happening. 
 
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Posted: #9

Quote Originally Posted by rangerz2478:




No it shouldnt. The Cavs will be -400 at home and pick em on the road. Parlay the 3 games and you get low +200s. Why is this so difficult for some of you to understand? It is a VERY simple concept.

 

So Ranger what do you think about the Series bet?

 
MVP
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Posted: #10

Quote Originally Posted by rangerz2478:




No it shouldnt. The Cavs will be -400 at home and pick em on the road. Parlay the 3 games and you get low +200s. Why is this so difficult for some of you to understand? It is a VERY simple concept.

 

I try to explain odds to people all the time man, dont waste your time.

 
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Posted: #11
Well you might as well just do a double down system.  Orlando is +340 at my book for game 5, bet it for 200, they win you make almost 7 hundo. If they lose game 6 will be a pick em and you double that shit down and put 440 on Orlando
 
MVP
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Posted: #12
Quote Originally Posted by DiceyDave:

 

So Ranger what do you think about the Series bet?



I already have Cavs +185 to win the east (which I bet in March) and Magic +600 as a hedge which I bet before the series started.

With that said, I think people are dismissing the Cavs WAYYYY too easily. Just a week ago people though they were unbeatable. Boy has the perception of this team changed so quickly. I am thinking of adding more on Cavs +220 or whatever I can get. I think they win game 5 easily and if they win game 6 you can get Magic close to +400 in game 7.
 
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Posted: #13
Give me some Magic AFTER game 5. Much better price after they win one at home.
 
MVP
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Posted: #14
Quote Originally Posted by ace7:

Give me some Magic AFTER game 5. Much better price after they win one at home.


It will be better but will not be much better as the Cavs are a big game 5 favorite. It will drop from -230 to maybe around -170. IF I was to bet the Magic I would probably wait until after 5 as as you said. I just cant see them winning game 5.
 
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Posted: #15
It might be better to take the Magic moneyline each of the remaining games. You can get them @ +390 tomorrow night. The moneyline(if necessary) in Orlando will probably be -115 ish, and if a game 7 is forced I think Magic backers will receive favorable odds there too. 
 
If the series price = -250 and you drop 5 dimes on it and the Magic win, your payout will be 2 dimes.
 
If you play 1/3 of the total 5 dimes bet for each of the next three games(if necessary) @ 1,666, you may just find yourself with better odds then -250. Another question to consider is do you think the Magic can close out the series in Cleveland. If the Magic lose tomorrow, what will their series odds be then? Probably more favorable than -250.
 
Game 5 Orlando +390 @ $1666 win= $6,497
***Game 6 Orlando -115(speculative) @ $1,666 win= $1,448
*** Game 7 Orlando +350(speculative)@$1,666 win= $5,831
 
If my prediction about the game 6 & 7 lines are way off then my theory is for shit. But I think there's more value in betting these games individually. I luckily took the Magic before the playoffs started to win the Eastern conference at 7-1 odds. I'm feeling great about that bet right now because I still think the Magic win this current series with the Cavs.
 Good luck whatever you decide and go Magic!  
 
 
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Posted: #16
Now thats how you Crunch #s I respect Young Ladd Keep doing your thang I appreciate things like this bc I do them Myself on my own Lines Etc! Why not!

 
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Posted: #17
 
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Posted: #18

Quote Originally Posted by rangerz2478:



I already have Cavs +185 to win the east (which I bet in March) and Magic +600 as a hedge which I bet before the series started.

With that said, I think people are dismissing the Cavs WAYYYY too easily. Just a week ago people though they were unbeatable. Boy has the perception of this team changed so quickly. I am thinking of adding more on Cavs +220 or whatever I can get. I think they win game 5 easily and if they win game 6 you can get Magic close to +400 in game 7.

Not sure how you figure this. I agree with your breakdown of the probable odds if we see this series go to 7 but many of the threads here and on some of the other sites are littered with posters that suggest all but a complete dismissal of the Cavs. I'm not sure why. If it's written by author David Stern, it's one thing. But if this series is truly decided by which of the two teams is better, the Magic win.

 
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Posted: #19
Olando +340
 
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Posted: #20
Remember, Olando were suppose to sweep this series.  Cavs just got lucky.  Olando gona win Thursday.  Olando +340 $$$
 
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Posted: #21

Quote Originally Posted by rangerz2478:




No it shouldnt. The Cavs will be -400 at home and pick em on the road. Parlay the 3 games and you get low +200s. Why is this so difficult for some of you to understand? It is a VERY simple concept.

made the same point in another thread... comes out to +225 or somewhere near that, depending on the line for game 7, which would probably be lower than any of the other games in Cleveland...

 
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Posted: #22
Quote Originally Posted by Ice4Blood:

made the same point in another thread... comes out to +225 or somewhere near that, depending on the line for game 7, which would probably be lower than any of the other games in Cleveland...

You also said you dont lose your games of the year. Then just as everyone knew would happen,you lost it. Who the fuck do you think you are to say something like that? Little bitch you've been ignoring me in all your threads. Why would you say you dont lose , do you think you are god? Little bitch. Your opinion doesnt mean shit. Go logout.
 
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Posted: #23
well not your threads, just threads you posted in. Threads that you sound like a little bitch in.
 
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Posted: #24
I want you to justify your GOD MENTALITY. "I DONT LOSE MY GOY".....WHO THE fuck do you think you are? Honestly?
 
 
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Posted: #25
well, considering that's the first one i've lost, i'd say it was a true statement... but what is the big deal, anyway, and why does saying that get you so riled up?  i was giving fair warning, that's all... when i posted the 3 GOY plays last year people didn't seem to get so pissed off about it... but then again Covers is all about the last game you picked, so that's that...
 
but don't act like it was a terrible loss... if Rashard misses the 3 pointer i would have covered, or at worst pushed... and that is despite Orlando outscoring Cleveland by 30+ pts from behind the arc... i capped it correctly, there is no doubt about it... but the books shaded the line very well and the Magic shot out of their minds... capping correctly doesn't always equal a win...
 
 
i do have to admit, your comment about me ignoring you cracked me up... apparently you have been obsessing and waiting around for responses to shit i never read, never knew you wrote, or never cared that you wrote...
 
bit of a sad testimony when Covers.com constitutes the crux of your social life...
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