Hey all, Looking to post my 2nd '100' plays here. Ended up going 2-8 on the last 10 to go 54% over the first 100. Not good enough for me.
As I mentioned, here are the criteria that need to be met before I'll make a play. I'll post all my calculations, but not necessarily play everything.
1. Difference must be minimum -3 for unders and +5 for overs. Nothing less than those differences will be bet...
2. Each of the 7-game, 12-game, and the 20-game averages must all suggest the same play (all be under, or all be over).
3.
Teams in question can't have had an important
trade/injury/break-out-game in the last 3 games which may not have shown
up in data thus far.
For a good
chunk of the first '100', I played everything regardless of the
difference being 0.05 or 10.00. Cheers
Here's tonight's calculations and plays, starting at 0-0-0 here. Last night: 0-0 Overall: 0-0-0 = 0%
Team 1 Team 2 Line Difference Play Expected Total Brk Atl 194.50 -12.90 Under 181.60 Nyk Ind 182.50 -9.18 Under 173.32 Okc Hou 207.50 -5.08 Under 202.42
My plays tonight: Brk-Atl --> Under Nyk-Ind --> Under Okc-Hou --> Under
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To remove first post, remove entire topic.
Hey all, Looking to post my 2nd '100' plays here. Ended up going 2-8 on the last 10 to go 54% over the first 100. Not good enough for me.
As I mentioned, here are the criteria that need to be met before I'll make a play. I'll post all my calculations, but not necessarily play everything.
1. Difference must be minimum -3 for unders and +5 for overs. Nothing less than those differences will be bet...
2. Each of the 7-game, 12-game, and the 20-game averages must all suggest the same play (all be under, or all be over).
3.
Teams in question can't have had an important
trade/injury/break-out-game in the last 3 games which may not have shown
up in data thus far.
For a good
chunk of the first '100', I played everything regardless of the
difference being 0.05 or 10.00. Cheers
Here's tonight's calculations and plays, starting at 0-0-0 here. Last night: 0-0 Overall: 0-0-0 = 0%
Team 1 Team 2 Line Difference Play Expected Total Brk Atl 194.50 -12.90 Under 181.60 Nyk Ind 182.50 -9.18 Under 173.32 Okc Hou 207.50 -5.08 Under 202.42
My plays tonight: Brk-Atl --> Under Nyk-Ind --> Under Okc-Hou --> Under
I have sheets (excel etc.) where I have those averages set-up. My projected total as shown is an average of the three projections. If I'm playing it, it works out that all of the 7-game, 12-game, and 20-game are saying the same thing. There's nothing from my post that you can plug in really...
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I have sheets (excel etc.) where I have those averages set-up. My projected total as shown is an average of the three projections. If I'm playing it, it works out that all of the 7-game, 12-game, and 20-game are saying the same thing. There's nothing from my post that you can plug in really...
To clarify, I'm not making anyone use these projections. Obviously JP548 is still recovering from Eli Manning's last pick... or picks, errr..... so I'll let his comment slide. 6 Plays for tonight though below.
Last night: 1-2 Overall: 1-2 = 33%
Team 1 Team 2 Line Difference Play Expected Total Chi Was 185.50 5.14 Under 190.64 Mia Phi 210.50 -3.12 Under 207.38 Min Tor 206.50 -5.17 Under 201.33 Lac Nyk 202.50 -2.00 Under 200.50 Cha Orl 189.50 5.23 Over 194.73 Lal Bos 205.50 8.81 Over 214.31 Uta Det 202.50 -0.31 Under 202.19 Sac Mem 199.50 5.74 Over 205.24 Por Sas 213.00 3.81 Over 216.81 Dal Pho 210.50 -1.86 Under 208.64 Cle Den 213.00 -2.94 Under 210.06 Gsw Okc 207.00 -4.56 Under 202.44
My plays tonight: Chi-Was --> Over Min-Tor --> Under Cha-Orl --> Over Lal-Bos --> Over Sac-Mem --> Over Gsw-Okc --> Under
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To clarify, I'm not making anyone use these projections. Obviously JP548 is still recovering from Eli Manning's last pick... or picks, errr..... so I'll let his comment slide. 6 Plays for tonight though below.
Last night: 1-2 Overall: 1-2 = 33%
Team 1 Team 2 Line Difference Play Expected Total Chi Was 185.50 5.14 Under 190.64 Mia Phi 210.50 -3.12 Under 207.38 Min Tor 206.50 -5.17 Under 201.33 Lac Nyk 202.50 -2.00 Under 200.50 Cha Orl 189.50 5.23 Over 194.73 Lal Bos 205.50 8.81 Over 214.31 Uta Det 202.50 -0.31 Under 202.19 Sac Mem 199.50 5.74 Over 205.24 Por Sas 213.00 3.81 Over 216.81 Dal Pho 210.50 -1.86 Under 208.64 Cle Den 213.00 -2.94 Under 210.06 Gsw Okc 207.00 -4.56 Under 202.44
My plays tonight: Chi-Was --> Over Min-Tor --> Under Cha-Orl --> Over Lal-Bos --> Over Sac-Mem --> Over Gsw-Okc --> Under
Team 1 Team 2 Line Difference Play Expected Total Chi Was 185.50 5.14 Over 190.64 Mia Phi 210.50 -3.12 Under 207.38 Min Tor 206.50 -5.17 Under 201.33 Lac Nyk 202.50 -2.00 Under 200.50 Cha Orl 189.50 5.23 Over 194.73 Lal Bos 205.50 8.81 Over 214.31 Uta Det 202.50 -0.31 Under 202.19 Sac Mem 199.50 5.74 Over 205.24 Por Sas 213.00 3.81 Over 216.81 Dal Pho 210.50 -1.86 Under 208.64 Cle Den 213.00 -2.94 Under 210.06 Gsw Okc 207.00 -4.56 Under 202.44
My plays tonight: Chi-Was --> Over Min-Tor --> Under Cha-Orl --> Over Lal-Bos --> Over Sac-Mem --> Over Gsw-Okc --> Under
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Whoops, mistakes in that last table.
Last night: 1-2 Overall: 1-2 = 33%
Team 1 Team 2 Line Difference Play Expected Total Chi Was 185.50 5.14 Over 190.64 Mia Phi 210.50 -3.12 Under 207.38 Min Tor 206.50 -5.17 Under 201.33 Lac Nyk 202.50 -2.00 Under 200.50 Cha Orl 189.50 5.23 Over 194.73 Lal Bos 205.50 8.81 Over 214.31 Uta Det 202.50 -0.31 Under 202.19 Sac Mem 199.50 5.74 Over 205.24 Por Sas 213.00 3.81 Over 216.81 Dal Pho 210.50 -1.86 Under 208.64 Cle Den 213.00 -2.94 Under 210.06 Gsw Okc 207.00 -4.56 Under 202.44
My plays tonight: Chi-Was --> Over Min-Tor --> Under Cha-Orl --> Over Lal-Bos --> Over Sac-Mem --> Over Gsw-Okc --> Under
totals are kinda trippy at times man. these systems are cool but some teams are just hot and able to finish more efficiently and turn fast break points in to quick points. okc did something really wild last night which makes me skeptical of the totals but it's just one game and it's so rare that it was the biggest team point differential between two halfs. still pretty bobbled about only 19 points with harden in the line up
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totals are kinda trippy at times man. these systems are cool but some teams are just hot and able to finish more efficiently and turn fast break points in to quick points. okc did something really wild last night which makes me skeptical of the totals but it's just one game and it's so rare that it was the biggest team point differential between two halfs. still pretty bobbled about only 19 points with harden in the line up
Team 1 Team 2 Line Difference Play Expected Total Lac Ind 198.00 -5.64 Under 192.36 Det Was 203.00 -7.62 Under 195.38 Mia Cha 193.50 2.44 Over 195.94 Gsw Nop 204.50 2.53 Over 207.03 Phi Chi 197.50 -9.69 Under 187.81 Mil Hou 199.50 -10.26 Under 189.24 Uta Min 202.50 7.35 Over 209.85 Por Dal 213.50 6.96 Over 220.46
My plays tonight: Lac-Ind --> Under Det-Was --> Under Phi-Chi --> Under Mil-Hou --> Under Uta-Min --> Over Por-Dal --> Over
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Went 4-2 last night.
Last night: 4-2 Overall: 5-4 = 55%
Team 1 Team 2 Line Difference Play Expected Total Lac Ind 198.00 -5.64 Under 192.36 Det Was 203.00 -7.62 Under 195.38 Mia Cha 193.50 2.44 Over 195.94 Gsw Nop 204.50 2.53 Over 207.03 Phi Chi 197.50 -9.69 Under 187.81 Mil Hou 199.50 -10.26 Under 189.24 Uta Min 202.50 7.35 Over 209.85 Por Dal 213.50 6.96 Over 220.46
My plays tonight: Lac-Ind --> Under Det-Was --> Under Phi-Chi --> Under Mil-Hou --> Under Uta-Min --> Over Por-Dal --> Over
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