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OVER/UNDER Calulations

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Prospect
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Posted: #26
Hey man you still posting?
 
Prospect
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Posted: #27
Last day posting went 3-2-1. 

Last post: 3-2-1
Overall: 8-6-1 = 57%

Team 1    Team 2    Line    Difference    Play    Expected Total
  Dal         Cle       207.50      5.02       Over        212.52
  Lac        Det       208.00      1.28       Over        209.28
  Tor         Cha      185.00      5.05       Over        190.05
  Phi        Was      208.00   -10.22      Under       197.78
  Brk        Nyk       193.00    -7.76       Under       185.24
  Nop       Mem      191.00     2.30       Over         193.30
  Mia        Atl         201.50    -9.20       Under       192.30
  Lal         Chi        197.00    -0.37       Under       196.63
  Por        Hou       217.50    -1.25       Under        216.25
  Ind        Gsw       198.00    -7.65       Under        190.35

My plays tonight:
Dal-Cle --> Over 
Tor-Cha --> Over  
Phi-Was --> Under
Brk-Nyk --> Under
Mia-Atl --> Under
Ind-Gsw --> Under
 
Prospect
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Posted: #28
Wow, 3-1 so far.  Looking like a good day to be using these calculations!
 
Prospect
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Posted: #29
Damn I missed out ur picks:( haha will keep an eye tomorrow! thanks for ur picks Buddy!
 
Prospect
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Posted: #30
Last night: 4-2
Overall: 12-8-1 = 60%

Team 1    Team 2    Line    Difference    Play    Expected Total
   Orl         Brk      193.50    -7.87       Under        185.63
   Bos       Mia      197.50    -1.29       Under        196.21
   Sac       Nop      205.00     0.42       Over          205.42
   Por        Okc     215.00     3.44       Over           218.44
   Min        Uta      202.50     1.89       Over           204.39

My plays tonight:
Orl-Brk --> Under 

Only one game fit my criteria for tonight.  The only other game that had all the signs pointing one way was actually the Min-Uta game, where all the projections I have point to an Over.  There isn't a big enough difference there though, so I'm staying away. 

Good luck tonight, all.
 
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Posted: #31
BOL Calc
 
Prospect
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Posted: #32
I like that. But also like over okc. Portland is on their 2nd b2b game in 5 days.  So no strong defensive plays
 
Prospect
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Posted: #33
That's a good point tnguyen, but OKC is a surprisingly good defensive team, especially when they're playing a high quality opponent.  Overs of 215 and up seem to disappoint on a regular basis for me, so I'm still staying away for the night. 
Cheers on your play. My numbers still say you should be right though!   
 
Prospect
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Posted: #34
Looked a little scary there at the end of the brk game, thanks again 
 
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Posted: #35
 
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Posted: #36
 
Prospect
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Posted: #37
Went 1-0 last night.  If I had played all the games, would've gone 4-1, but that's all good.  I'm feeling much stronger about my picks and the plan now that I am only playing certain games that fit the set critera.

Last night: 1-0
Overall: 13-8-1 = 62%

Team 1    Team 2    Line    Difference    Play    Expected Total
   Lac     Cha    199.50       6.34          Over      205.84
   Chi      Cle    187.00       0.74           Over      187.74
   Atl       Orl    201.50      -7.99         Under      193.51
   Dal      Tor    202.00      -0.30          Under      201.70
   Bos   Was    193.50      -1.38         Under      192.12
   Phi     Nyk    204.50      -8.42        Under      196.08
   Sac    Hou    216.00      -5.97        Under      210.03
   Det      Mil    197.00      -5.12        Under      191.88
  Okc     Sas    204.50      -1.07        Under      203.43
   Ind      Pho    196.50      -2.08        Under      194.42

My plays tonight:
Lac-Cha --> Over  
Atl-Orl--> Under 
Phi-Nyk --> Under 
Sac-Hou --> Under 
Det-Mil --> Under 
 
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Posted: #38
I played the over in the Minn-Utah game and got lucky. Not quite sure why I got a 63 pt 4th Quarter in a blowout, but I will take it. Thanks for your hard work
 
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Posted: #39
Like NYK and Det. Good luck
 
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Posted: #40
Yeah, that was a lucky finish.  It was still only 46% shooting combined for both teams, so the outcome of it being over isn't too crazy.
I really like the NYK and Det games too.  In fact, I'd say that I like all the games I outlined minus maybe the Atl game.  Atlanta seems to be a team that shoots at a ridiculous fg% every third game.  We'll see which Atlanta team show up today.  
 
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Posted: #41
tailing you on the under for NYK + Philly :)
 
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Posted: #42
tailing on all 5, lets get it!
 
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Posted: #43
GL man!
 
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Posted: #44
On the road to green. Let's get it.
 
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Posted: #45
good luck tonight!!!
 
Prospect
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Posted: #46
ah bad day today :(
 
Prospect
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Posted: #47
Quote Originally Posted by box92:

ah bad day today :(

"Bad day" is an understatement... 
 
Prospect
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Posted: #48

very bad day. get it back today!

 
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Posted: #49
boom goes the dynamite 
 
 
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Posted: #50

There is a lesson to be learned here. You can crunch all of the numbers that you want to come up with a number for a game.....HOWEVER, don't think for a minute that a system produced number is sharper than the actual Vegas line. You may get lucky and hit a win streak and you may lose a ton. The reality is if you stick to a system like this, you will have a TON of action because the system is going to give you lot of bets to make on a daily/weekly/monthly basis. Thus, in the end, you will get beat by the house vig.

The 100+ game sample size for this "experiment" confirms that fact mostly. Follow this system (or any system) with caution and remember that you have to be pretty good to come up with numbers that are sharper than the ones they come up with in Vegas.

Gamble for entertainment, invest for wealth!
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