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#1
Hello fellow NBA fans from around the world!
If your idea of a great birthday consists of cleaning up vomit every 20-30 minutes because your 2 kids and your girlfriend are sick like dogs, then you missed a great party at my house last night!
I did my best to make the best projections possible despite the lack of sleep from the past two nights. I have one value bet (rated 5 stars) that I absolutely love, and 4 bets rated 1 star out of 5. Here are the full projections for today!
Wizards-76ers (Pinnacle +8, projection +7.8)
Grizzlies-Pacers (Pinnacle +1, projection -0.5)
Celtics-Raptors (Pinnacle -4, projection -5.1)
Suns-Bulls (Pinnacle -6, projection -6.2)
Jazz-Bucks (Pinnacle +3, projection +2)
Lakers-Thunder (Pinnacle -10, projection -10.2)
Mavs-Twolves (Pinnacle -3.5, projection -3)
Heat-Hawks (Pinnacle -3, projection -4.3)
Nets-Nuggets (Pinnacle -10, projection -6.2)
Spurs-Clippers (Pinnacle +4, projection +4.9)
“AMAZING BET” (5 stars / 5):
The last time I was as excited about a bet was February 13th when I recommended the Clippers +8.5 in Utah. They ended up beating the spread by 24 points! I’m not saying it’s going to happen again tonight, but I’m pretty confident about this one: take the Nets +10 in Denver.
Jeremy Lin will be available tonight for Brooklyn, which should help. The combination of my statistical models and my own judgement estimate the Nuggets’ win probability to be around 80-85% at home against Brooklyn. After accounting for the fact that Denver is playing the second of back-to-back games, it goes down to around 71%, which explains my projected money lines of +241 -241. I know, Brooklyn is on a 14-game losing streak. But did you know they haven’t lost by 10 points or more over their past 9 games? They are definitely improving. 89% of the money has been going on Denver. I love this pick even more. Take the Nets +10 in a heartbeat!!
“PROCEED WITH CAUTION” BET (1 star / 5):
- Take the Raptors -4 at home against Boston. The Celtics second highest scorer Avery Bradley most likely won’t play. Meanwhile,
Toronto gets to see their newest acquisitions: Ibaka and Tucker. Both will definitely improve the team defensively. Boston has been
playing much better than the Raptors of late: they have won 11 of their last 13, while Toronto has lost 11 of their last 16. However,
the Canadian team has beaten the Celtics 2 times out of 3 this year.
- I’m going with Milwaukee +3 at home against Utah. Milwaukee has won its last 3 games. They lost Jabari Parker for the season,
but got Middleton back. The Jazz have been struggling recently, having lost 3 of their last 4. It is worth mentioning that they
have beaten Milwaukee 5 straight times (including 2 on the road). I expect that streak to end tonight.
- I’m not super excited about this one, but the numbers are telling me to go with Dallas +3.5 in Minnesota. The Mavericks latest
acquisition Noel won’t play tonight. The team was on a 8-3 streak before losing the last two before the All-Star break. As for the
Timberwolves, they started the year with a 11-26 record, but have gone 11-9 since then. The loss of LaVine for the rest of the season hurts though.
- Finally, I’m picking Atlanta -3 against the Heat. Miami surprised everybody by winning 13 straight games, but they lost their last 2.
Notice the Hawks have decided to suspend Schroder for tonight’s game, but that was taken into account in my projections.
Good luck with your plays!
Professor MJ
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