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QuidProQuo NBA 2013/14

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Posted: #1
Hello everyone,

I'm going to start NBA thread here and post my NBA tips since I've been sporadically reading forum for past year or so. I'm professionally capping basketball for the last 5 years (mostly european basketball but i also have two NBA seasons with 60%+)..

I mostly cap euro bball so I'm not exactly sure about number of NBA plays, but last season I had a total of around 200. Sometimes I'm going to do write-ups, sometimes I'm not, also depends of time...

Good luck everyone!
 
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Posted: #2
I use 1-2 units betting system
YTD: 0-0

Thunder @ Warriors UNDER 207 (1.1U to win 1U)

Was thinking about taking GSW at -3 when it opened but considering how they match up vs Thunder last couple of years had to skip it. Perkins is out, not really sure if Ibaka is going to get suspension or not but OKC still didn't play back to back games this season and we are going to see how that works out...

Refs tonight are something like 11-3 Over/Under which is obviously not very good, but not the most important thing.

This is also a spot i used few times where total is 200-210 points in first half of the season where two winning teams plays eachother where under is 46-18 over last 5 seasons. Seems like a good spot to fade the public here. I have it capped @ 202

Good luck guys !
 
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Posted: #3
BOL !
 
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Posted: #4
Have u got twitter account? BOL tonight bro!
 
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Posted: #5
Good Luck
 
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Posted: #6
YTD: 0-1; -1U

Brooklyn Nets to win (1.05U to win 1U)
 
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Posted: #7
Saturday 11/16

YTD: 1-1; -0.1U

Clevelend Cavaliers +7.5 (2U to win 2U)

It's true that Cavs have the worst ATS record (0-9 in November games) but this is pretty much perfect spot for them to beat the spread and actually try to win this game straight up. Cavs have talent and I'll gladly take the point here. These teams are pretty close in many game aspects; Cavs FG% 40.7%, Wizards 43%; Cavs rebounds 52.5, Wizards 48.4; Cavs assist 18.1; Wizards 20 etc.

Bynum is going to play tonight, after missing last two games. Ariza got injured last game and is out indefinetely, together with Al Harrington and John Wall got poked in the eye last game, but is expected to play tonight.

Cavs are 15-5 against Southeast division opponents over the last 2 seasons;
Wizards are 84-123 ATS in November games since 1996;
Wizards are 75-110 ATS in home games after a loss by 10 points or more since 1996;
Cavs are 5-1 ATS versus Wizards over last 3 seasons.
 
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Posted: #8
Adding:

Oklahoma City Thunder -10.5 (1.1U to win 1U)

Only some interesting trends:

-Referees tonight have 4-14 ATS record combined in favour of road team
-Thunder are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 Saturday games;
-The Thunder are 10-0 ATS (9.61 ppg) since Dec 06, 2008 on the road after playing in a road loss, when Russell Westbrook had at least 5 turnovers the last two;
-Bucks are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 home games;
-Bucks are 9-27 ATS in their last 36 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600;
-Road team is 5-0 ATS in the last 5 meetings;
-Thunder are 17-8 ATS in the last 25 meetings.

That's it for tonight, good luck everyone!
 
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Posted: #9
11 seems to be alot for a backdoor 3 to cover
 
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Posted: #10
Adding at half-time:

Oklahoma City Thunder -5.5 (1.1U to win 1U)

Good luck!
 
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Posted: #11
Sunday 11/17

YTD: 4-1; +3.9U

Good day yesterday going 3-0, but today I'm kind of surprised that Lakers are +2.5. Strong lean is towards Lakers and TT+ but they just have so ridicilously bad trends in this spot, will probably make play later. Some of the trends :

DETROIT is 2-1 against the spread versus LA LAKERS over the last 3 seasons;
DETROIT is 56-35 ATS in road games after playing 3 games as an underdog;
LA LAKERS are 12-25 ATS as an underdog over the last 2 seasons;
LA LAKERS are 123-160 ATS (-53.0 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a losing record since 1996;
LA LAKERS are 0-10 ATS (-10.70 ppg) since Apr 17, 2012 as a dog after a game at home in which they had an assist to turnover ratio of at least two.
 
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Posted: #12
Los Angeles Lakers team total OVER 100.5 (1.1U to win 1U)

The Lakers avg score 99.6 points per game playing in Staples Center, but they played two best defensive teams (Spurs and Grizzlies) where they scored only 85 and 86 points. The Lakers are 1-6 straight up when held to less than 100 points because they are simply not defending well. If they want to hang around tonight they need to score 100+, Pau Gasol needs to show inside tonight. Also Blake and Hill also need to be productive.

The Pistons are not great defensive team and they allowed 110 ppg last four games, overall allowing 102.5 ppg. Detroit is only 2-38 in their last 40 games against Western Conference road opponents. Last game of road trip also usually means they are not going to be that motivated to defend tonight and i expect the Lakers three-point barrage put them over 100 points tonight.

Refs combined are 15-7 on the over.

Good Luck everyone!
 
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Posted: #13
Riding with you on this! Lets make sum cash! GL
 
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Posted: #14
Quote Originally Posted by Jamador09:

Riding with you on this! Lets make sum cash! GL



 
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Posted: #15
Monday 11/18

YTD: 5-1; +4.9U

Didn't have much time today to cap NBA and I'm not really in love with any game on first sight. I'd like to take points on Grizzlies if they weren't on b2b four game road trip and if Clips weren't rested playing like 10th home game in a row...

I think Grizzlies are actually the worst team for Clippers to play against, since they match them up so well. Randolph and Gasol can slow Griffin down, Allen and Conley match up well vs CP3 and Reddick etc.

Bulls, Thunder and Mavs all lay DD tonight. Pretty sure at least two can cover, but again don't really like either. Bulls are probably going lack motivation to destroy Cats. If i had to play probably would chose Dallas.

Might have one play on team total later, good luck everyone today!
 
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Posted: #16
Tuesday 11/19

YTD: 5-1; +4.9U

Minnesota Timberwolves -3 (1.1U to win 1U)

I had to take Wolves when i saw they're -3. Really no idea how the books came up with that number but I'll bite for sure. I mean i know Minnesota is 4-10 ATS last 14 vs Wizards but this season Minny is different, better team. I know both teams are going to play 4 games next 5 days and that Wolves have a game vs Clippers tomorrow but still with all that it still looks too good to be true.

I like the over in Suns @ Kings game and am prolly going to play it as well. Other games probably not going to touch, small leans towards Celtics and Heat

Good luck everyone today, will probably add I really a play later.
 
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Posted: #17
Adding:

Phoenix Suns team total OVER 95.5 (2.2U to win 2U)

Detroit Pistons team total UNDER 101.5 (1.1U to win 1U)

No time for write-ups, sorry... Just heading out,
Good luck everyone tonight!
 
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Posted: #18
GL tonight QPQ
 
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Posted: #19
Wednesday 11/20

YTD: 7-2; +6.8U

Solid day yesterday, both team totals went smoothly... Big day today, so much value all over the board. Will post plays later, probably going to have at least a couple.

Good luck today!
 
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Posted: #20

New Orleans Pelicans 1st half team total OVER 51.5 (1.1U to win 1U)

New Orleans Pelicans team total OVER 102.5 (1.1U to win 1U)

Houston Rockets team total OVER 105.5 (1.1U to win 1U)

Phoenix Suns team total OVER 100.5 (1.1U to win 1U)

Good luck!


 
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Posted: #21
You just play on team total only? not an the game?
 
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Posted: #22
Quote Originally Posted by MACKY:

You just play on team total only? not an the game?


I play game totals and spreads as well, just on such busy night i like to limit plays and i see much more value on these plays.
 
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Posted: #23
Thursday 11/21

YTD: 10-3; +8.7U

Denver Nuggets to win (1U to win 1U)

Good luck!
 
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Posted: #24
Friday 11/21

YTD: 11-3; +9.7U

New Orleans Pelicans team total OVER 101.5 (1.1U to win 1U)

Dallas Mavericks team total OVER 107.5 (1.1U to win 1U)

Good luck!
 
 
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Nice job QPQ
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