Running a little behind, only posting the first game right now, but there are 2 more plays I will post in a little bit and one of them is VERY VERY STRONG. For now...
CHAR/CLE UNDER 189. - LEAN
THE REFS... DAN CRAWFORD - 6 of last 8 UNDER on CHAR and 3 of last 4 UNDER on CLE
KEVIN CUTLER - 2 of last 3 CHAR UNDER (1 of those unders was an OT game) and last 3 CLE games UNDER
GARY ZIELINSKI - 7 of last 10 UNDER for CHAR (1 over was OT) and last 6 UNDER for CLE
Combined trend is 27-7 (79%). THis is a LEAN So far all ref plays are 10-3-1 (LEANS and STRONG plays). Had a bad night last night going 0-1-1, should be much better tonight.
BEST OF LUCK, will post the other 2 plays in a bit.
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To remove first post, remove entire topic.
Running a little behind, only posting the first game right now, but there are 2 more plays I will post in a little bit and one of them is VERY VERY STRONG. For now...
CHAR/CLE UNDER 189. - LEAN
THE REFS... DAN CRAWFORD - 6 of last 8 UNDER on CHAR and 3 of last 4 UNDER on CLE
KEVIN CUTLER - 2 of last 3 CHAR UNDER (1 of those unders was an OT game) and last 3 CLE games UNDER
GARY ZIELINSKI - 7 of last 10 UNDER for CHAR (1 over was OT) and last 6 UNDER for CLE
Combined trend is 27-7 (79%). THis is a LEAN So far all ref plays are 10-3-1 (LEANS and STRONG plays). Had a bad night last night going 0-1-1, should be much better tonight.
BEST OF LUCK, will post the other 2 plays in a bit.
Thanks Dirk and look forward to the big play. You can blame last night on me as I finally jumped on board and it went south! We'll get it back tonight brother
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Thanks Dirk and look forward to the big play. You can blame last night on me as I finally jumped on board and it went south! We'll get it back tonight brother
Dirk, I meant to ask you what made you start looking at these trends? You have been a member since 2009 and just wondering how you came across these trends. thanks man
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Dirk, I meant to ask you what made you start looking at these trends? You have been a member since 2009 and just wondering how you came across these trends. thanks man
DWADE - I use 3 online and 2 local books, i can usually get a 2 point range. THe locals want action and i can even just talk them into 1/2-1 point moves at times depending where there action is. I placed that around 4:00 CST with a local. Id feel comfortable playing it at 185 though. I take it you didnt or i wouldve heard about it, but since it did land on 5 last night i wish you couldve snagged a 6 on MIL to go with you 4 1/2 or 5 on DEN. A good local book is invaluable... sonetimes they are too smart for their own good - i.e. if you had 200 on DEN at -5 and call back and ask about lines, they are going to assume you are coming with more on DEN... SOmebody on their game quotes you a 6, and then you hammer them 500 on the other side. Bet amounts are relative - jsut pulled those numbers out of the air, i have no idea how much you bet per game, but you get the idea.
dkite22 - Ill answer your posts later tonight... kinda swamped shopping lines and getting plays in.
FOr those who have enough faith to go blind, the other plays will be a LEAN to CHI/ATL under and absolutely fucking HAMMER HOU against the lakers tonight. Just dont have the time to put up the statistical data yet. I will as soon as I can.
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DWADE - I use 3 online and 2 local books, i can usually get a 2 point range. THe locals want action and i can even just talk them into 1/2-1 point moves at times depending where there action is. I placed that around 4:00 CST with a local. Id feel comfortable playing it at 185 though. I take it you didnt or i wouldve heard about it, but since it did land on 5 last night i wish you couldve snagged a 6 on MIL to go with you 4 1/2 or 5 on DEN. A good local book is invaluable... sonetimes they are too smart for their own good - i.e. if you had 200 on DEN at -5 and call back and ask about lines, they are going to assume you are coming with more on DEN... SOmebody on their game quotes you a 6, and then you hammer them 500 on the other side. Bet amounts are relative - jsut pulled those numbers out of the air, i have no idea how much you bet per game, but you get the idea.
dkite22 - Ill answer your posts later tonight... kinda swamped shopping lines and getting plays in.
FOr those who have enough faith to go blind, the other plays will be a LEAN to CHI/ATL under and absolutely fucking HAMMER HOU against the lakers tonight. Just dont have the time to put up the statistical data yet. I will as soon as I can.
CORRECTION - *I* will be hammering HOU tonight. I try not to tell other people what to do with their money, and just veered from that. It is, however, my strongest play of the year so far and will place 3x my normal wager on houston (splitting that 80% on HOU +7.5 and 20% on HOU ML +275). I rarely vary my bet amount. Do what you want with it... Data to follow in about an hour.
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CORRECTION - *I* will be hammering HOU tonight. I try not to tell other people what to do with their money, and just veered from that. It is, however, my strongest play of the year so far and will place 3x my normal wager on houston (splitting that 80% on HOU +7.5 and 20% on HOU ML +275). I rarely vary my bet amount. Do what you want with it... Data to follow in about an hour.
Nice info man. and by the way PR9, I think the 185.5 line you were maybe looking at was the O/U line for the Mil/Utah game. The O/U line for the Charlotte game opened up at 187 and went up to 189 where is closed at gametime. Just didnt want people to think Dirk was posting fake lines or anything. Anyway Gl luck with your plays today!
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Nice info man. and by the way PR9, I think the 185.5 line you were maybe looking at was the O/U line for the Mil/Utah game. The O/U line for the Charlotte game opened up at 187 and went up to 189 where is closed at gametime. Just didnt want people to think Dirk was posting fake lines or anything. Anyway Gl luck with your plays today!
THE REFS... CURTIS BLAIR - 7 of last 10 with ATL UNDER and CHI 7 of the last 10 UNDER ( both of those sets of 10 had 1 game each go over by 1 pt)
DAVID GUTHRIE - last 6 and 7 of the last 8 with ATL went UNDER (the lone over was OT). 5 of the last 6 and 7 of the last 9 with CHI went UNDER (the two overs were an OT game and an over by 3 pts).
JASON PHILLIPS - last 3 and 8 of last 10 with ATL went UNDER (both overs by 4 pts and one of the unders was an OT game that still snuck in 2 pts under).
Combined trend is 36-11(76.6%) but of the 11 OVERS - 3 were OT and 2 were 1 point losses. I kind of think i am going to kick myself for not making this a strong play, but gonna play it safe and call it a LEAN.
HOU +7.5 VERY STRONG
THE REFS... MATT BOLAND - HOU has covered the last 3 he has officiated. LAL have NOT covered 8 of the last 9 with him on the court.
MARC DAVIS - HOU has covered 3 of the last 5 with him (and one of the non-covers was a push). Also, LA LAKERS HAVE NOT COVERED 10 CONSECUTIVE GAMES WITH HIM ON COURT.
MARAT KOGUT - HOU has covered the last 3 he has officiated.
Combined trend is 27-2-1. On top of that there are some other factors... THis crew ( BOLAND and DAVIS in particular) have a general tendency to lean to the road team. At times, BOLAND is almost specifically defiant of the crowd and seems to go out of his way to make a point that he will not be influenced by a home crowd. Lastly, KOGUT was on the court for the LAKERS 55 point win against CLE (112-57) almost a year ago to the day AND for a 28 point win against DAL in the last week of the season last year. That would seem like possible LAKER favortism, but i have it on good authority that he was admonished by the league office after both games and was left off of the playoff rotation for some blatant no calls that should have gone against the lakers in both games as well as for generally allowing the CLE game to get that far out of hand. How do you think he will react tonight knowing he is being watched closely? The game against the MAVS was the last LAKER game he has officiated.
You should be more than fine with a +7, but the line is starting to move in our direction (7.5's arent that hard to get) and you might get an 8 if you wait. Nothing is ever for sure, even at this strong a play - I still only go to 3x my regular amount... But you rarely get info THIS strong.
BEST OF LUCK, use them however you choose.
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OK... here we go.
ATL/CHI UNDER 183 - LEAN
THE REFS... CURTIS BLAIR - 7 of last 10 with ATL UNDER and CHI 7 of the last 10 UNDER ( both of those sets of 10 had 1 game each go over by 1 pt)
DAVID GUTHRIE - last 6 and 7 of the last 8 with ATL went UNDER (the lone over was OT). 5 of the last 6 and 7 of the last 9 with CHI went UNDER (the two overs were an OT game and an over by 3 pts).
JASON PHILLIPS - last 3 and 8 of last 10 with ATL went UNDER (both overs by 4 pts and one of the unders was an OT game that still snuck in 2 pts under).
Combined trend is 36-11(76.6%) but of the 11 OVERS - 3 were OT and 2 were 1 point losses. I kind of think i am going to kick myself for not making this a strong play, but gonna play it safe and call it a LEAN.
HOU +7.5 VERY STRONG
THE REFS... MATT BOLAND - HOU has covered the last 3 he has officiated. LAL have NOT covered 8 of the last 9 with him on the court.
MARC DAVIS - HOU has covered 3 of the last 5 with him (and one of the non-covers was a push). Also, LA LAKERS HAVE NOT COVERED 10 CONSECUTIVE GAMES WITH HIM ON COURT.
MARAT KOGUT - HOU has covered the last 3 he has officiated.
Combined trend is 27-2-1. On top of that there are some other factors... THis crew ( BOLAND and DAVIS in particular) have a general tendency to lean to the road team. At times, BOLAND is almost specifically defiant of the crowd and seems to go out of his way to make a point that he will not be influenced by a home crowd. Lastly, KOGUT was on the court for the LAKERS 55 point win against CLE (112-57) almost a year ago to the day AND for a 28 point win against DAL in the last week of the season last year. That would seem like possible LAKER favortism, but i have it on good authority that he was admonished by the league office after both games and was left off of the playoff rotation for some blatant no calls that should have gone against the lakers in both games as well as for generally allowing the CLE game to get that far out of hand. How do you think he will react tonight knowing he is being watched closely? The game against the MAVS was the last LAKER game he has officiated.
You should be more than fine with a +7, but the line is starting to move in our direction (7.5's arent that hard to get) and you might get an 8 if you wait. Nothing is ever for sure, even at this strong a play - I still only go to 3x my regular amount... But you rarely get info THIS strong.
smartbets - basic info is available on this site, go to ref assignments under the NBA dropdown. Its a good place to start.... You look for blatant trends - lots of overs for both teams or unders for both teams or conflicting wins and loss streaks. But sometimes the historical lines they have are off, so anything within 2 points - double check somewhere else (i.e. at times 4-3 can actually be 6-1 or vice versa in reality bcuz a couple of "losses" are based on inaccurate closing lines). www.nbastuffer.com has good data but everything is very raw, you have to sift through it and come to your own conclusions. It is organized better here on covers, but in both cases you REALLY have to do the work - it is not something you can glance at and make a call. I dont get like a report from some magical company every day that gives me the numbers i post, i do a lot of work to sift thru and evaluate that data. I am OCD and have a background in financial planning so i am very used to working with numbers and it actually feeds the "OCD monster" inside of me, so this is a good fit for me. I do also have a couple of connections to various useful private sources that dont come into play often but are useful when they do.
bigbang12 - I grew up in ARlington and spent most of my life there. Grew up close to collins and lamar and then as an adult lived at park springs and 20 for many years. I am in addison now.
DWADE - a pleasure as always. just hoping for some winners tonight.
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smartbets - basic info is available on this site, go to ref assignments under the NBA dropdown. Its a good place to start.... You look for blatant trends - lots of overs for both teams or unders for both teams or conflicting wins and loss streaks. But sometimes the historical lines they have are off, so anything within 2 points - double check somewhere else (i.e. at times 4-3 can actually be 6-1 or vice versa in reality bcuz a couple of "losses" are based on inaccurate closing lines). www.nbastuffer.com has good data but everything is very raw, you have to sift through it and come to your own conclusions. It is organized better here on covers, but in both cases you REALLY have to do the work - it is not something you can glance at and make a call. I dont get like a report from some magical company every day that gives me the numbers i post, i do a lot of work to sift thru and evaluate that data. I am OCD and have a background in financial planning so i am very used to working with numbers and it actually feeds the "OCD monster" inside of me, so this is a good fit for me. I do also have a couple of connections to various useful private sources that dont come into play often but are useful when they do.
bigbang12 - I grew up in ARlington and spent most of my life there. Grew up close to collins and lamar and then as an adult lived at park springs and 20 for many years. I am in addison now.
DWADE - a pleasure as always. just hoping for some winners tonight.
Awesome Dirk....I actually live on the corner of Brown and Ascension, right across from the CVS...if you know it. Small world, huh? Riding the two plays!
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Awesome Dirk....I actually live on the corner of Brown and Ascension, right across from the CVS...if you know it. Small world, huh? Riding the two plays!
oh... and i watch a ton of NBA. Ive seen every mavs game for 15 years which by itself gives me a good feel of the league, but i watch another 10-15 games a week on top of that (tivoed or staggered schedule etc). I am a huge mavs fan, but do not allow that to sway me from a moneymaking standpoint. About 5 years ago, i learned to look for the game within the game - small things like coaching tendencies, ref preferences, player rotations etc. THere are certain players that might be great defenders but have trouble guarding very specific players. It helps. If i had a slightly higher tolerance for risk, id be retired - lol.
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oh... and i watch a ton of NBA. Ive seen every mavs game for 15 years which by itself gives me a good feel of the league, but i watch another 10-15 games a week on top of that (tivoed or staggered schedule etc). I am a huge mavs fan, but do not allow that to sway me from a moneymaking standpoint. About 5 years ago, i learned to look for the game within the game - small things like coaching tendencies, ref preferences, player rotations etc. THere are certain players that might be great defenders but have trouble guarding very specific players. It helps. If i had a slightly higher tolerance for risk, id be retired - lol.
bigbang - I used to live in what was "JEfferson on the cliff" 15 years ago, white apartments (or used to be) that overlook the bluff right there. I think they are an AMLI property now. NOrthwest of the corner of that intersection. I havent even been to arlington in about a year... but i know the area very well. small world indeed.
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bigbang - I used to live in what was "JEfferson on the cliff" 15 years ago, white apartments (or used to be) that overlook the bluff right there. I think they are an AMLI property now. NOrthwest of the corner of that intersection. I havent even been to arlington in about a year... but i know the area very well. small world indeed.
Holy hell...yea, i live right there!! They are called the CLIFFS now, right across the street from the Kroger. Rare you find a covers member that used to live where you do!
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Holy hell...yea, i live right there!! They are called the CLIFFS now, right across the street from the Kroger. Rare you find a covers member that used to live where you do!
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can't wait to see the BIG PLAY 
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