Quote Originally Posted by Achilles1629:
47-45 in the (I don’t count pushes)
12-5 in the conference finals
So here we are folks. The Rockets do the unthinkable and break the streak of 16 straight home wins for the Warriors. Now we are evened up at 2. Never a doubt for me in game 4 but tonite....it gets really interesting. 12 points in the 4th quarter by the Warriors going against a D’Antoni led defense? Analytic people will say regression....nah. Let’s be serious ok? Regression is a convenient way of allowing oneself wiggle room in case your “leans” and plays go wrong. It’s weak. I dont do weak. Like I’ve said and will continue to say, the Warriors are the ones who decide these games. IF they want to win, they win. They are that good. Nobody can tell me that two years ago when the cavs came back down 3-1 against a team undefeated at home and coming off 73 wins that that was all legit. No way. Regression? Really? I called that Cavs series before and during and some of the analytic guys couldn’t believe what they saw.....They just couldn’t wrap their heads around that series being f@xed.
Listen, If the Warriors want to feed into the storylines created by the league and media by giving games away, they will do that folks. iBook at it as “you scratch my back, I scratch yours”. They rolled over two years ago to Lebron, they then got the gift in KD and won another ring. A nice give and receive there huh? I’d think! Ultimately, this is an entertainment league and I’m sorry to break the news but these athletes are just as good actors as they are athletes. It would be one thing if I came in here and talked about all this AFTER games but I’ve pointed this out BEFORE the games, I’ve never wavered and so far so good. It’s all there to be read in the write ups. Back to the Warriors in the 4th: There is really NOTHING, I repeat, NOTHING, that explains that poor output by the Warriors in the 4th other than the fact that it was just meant to be folks. Was it really anything the Rockets did in that fourth quarter? Was it “regression”????Nope. It was AAAALLLLL Warriors; nothing the rockets did. They chose to play iso ball and they chose to play timid. That out of character folks but don’t think it wasn’t planned. Did you look at the personnel in the game when the game was on the line? Is Kerr that dumb? Nope. It’s that simple. Durant, unguardable, passes the ball to Klay with 3 guys on him? Coincidence? Come on. The league and the books wanted this thing tied up at 2 and here we are. The warriors fell in line in game 4 just like they did by giving away the title two years ago. Very simple.
So tonite, what gives? Well....look at the betting public. Want to know why over 70% of the public is siding with the Warriors tonite? A few reasons. You’ve heard that the warriors have yet to lose back to back games so the public believes no way in h@ll that the warriors follow up that fourth with another loss tonite, right? Also, it’s a Pickem game and I’ve been told by so many that if it’s a pickem, how can you go against the warriors? Well.....are the warriors gonna win tonite but then lose the next two games in a row in game 6 and 7 or do they lose tonite and then at least force a game 7? I think the rockets surprise tonite, the warriors hold serve at home in game 6 and then we get the game 7 we all deserve. It would really mess with people heads too in if worked out that way. Books clean up tonite AGAIN and the league gets their ratings. We’ll see......
For me, the easy bet tonite is simply to take the Warriors here. Why wouldn’t you? I mean how can the better team lose two in a row, right? Well....again, I’m going with the big picture here as I have in the East. It would be a travesty if this series didn’t get 7 games but how do we get there creating the most amount of drama and money? Well.... if the warriors win tonite, are they really gonna lose a second home game especially after “giving away” game 4 when they could close out the series? Nope. It would be waaaaay too obvious to the smartys out there as to what was going on if the warriors lost again at home so I don’t know if it goes that route. I feel both home teams hold serve and then we get our game 7 which feeds into the reasons why the rockets wanted that home court all year. Talk about great drama having a game 7 in Houston. Well I’m banking on it and I feel if it’s gonna happen. Once again I am putting myself out there with this bet but it’s fun! I’ve been wrong just like everybody else on this site and IF the warriors win tonite, the rockets backers, including myself will hear “how could you bet against the warriors after that 4th quarter in game 4”? Whatever though.....Let’s see what happens TONITE! Whether you tail, fade, take the nite off, tell us you have a “lean”.....good luck with whatever you decide. I wish all the best! More plays and props to come but for now....I like this one here:
Rockets ML
GL ALL
1 bet...1 big a$$ bet and booooooom!!!!!! ??Rockets baby!
Never a doubt tonite in calling this soap opera the way I thought it would go. You can call me crazy all you want but the proof is in the pudding; it’s been in the write ups.... Analytics didn’t win this game folks; understanding the league, the books and how the Warriors operate....that’s the story. We have some great games ahead. Congrats Rockets backers! Another huge nite going against the machine in Oakland.
Now 48-45 in the playoffs and 13-5 in the conference finals.
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