Fellas, I want to apologize to everyone that played this game based on my recommendation. I'm actually very upset about this one. I made some really basic mistakes handicapping this game, which I highlighted above.
#1: Team is coming off a prolonged road-trip playing first game at home. Sometimes those teams come out a bit sluggish. I mentioned that in the write-up but did NOT consider it enough.
#2: Look-ahead spot. Another factor that I've mentioned but disregarded. Combine that with #1 and we have an even stronger situation that requires added attention.
#3: 'Playoff' team coming off an embarrassing performance. Yes, Atlanta has been playing poorly against 'quality' opponents, but they are still a 'playoff squad'. These teams tend to play with extra effort and motivation, following 'blow-out' games. Another factor that I've mentioned but analyzed it completely incorrectly.
#4: Number four factor wasn't listed. That was the over-valued # on this game. Last game, Atlanta were -3.5 favorites at home. With SA, they should be +2.5 on the road. Accounting for b2b, maybe +3.5 They were +6.5/+7. There was NO 'line-value' on them at all, as they were actually very UNDER-valued. How did I miss this????
In any case, I'm just really pissed about shit capping off this game. I can't believe I made it a PLAY. Need to learn from this!
Hopefully Nuggz could take care of business for us.
Talk to you all later!
Bodio-
you heap good capper and I am not.. Let this go bro, cap and em and move on.
Good night and if the Thuggs pull it out , it will be a great one!