Sun NBA Tips

Pacers are in playoffs for 8th time in nine years; they lost their first round series the last three years. Celtics are in playoffs for 5th year in row; they lost in Eastern Conference final the last two years. Indiana is 4-9 in its last 13 games; they covered their last three road games. Celtics won six of their last eight games; they’re 0-8 vs spread in their last eight home games. Over is 11-5 in in their last 16 games. Pacers lost their last three games with Boston; Indiana is 3-2 vs spread in its last five visits to Beantown. Seven of last ten series games went over.

Thunder are in playoffs for 9th time in last ten years; they lost in first round the last two years. Trailblazers are in playoffs for 6th year in row; they’re 2-9 in last 11 first round series. OKC won its last five games (4-1 vs spread); they’re 4-8 vs spread in last dozen road games. Portland won 14 of its last 17 games; they covered their last three home games. Three of their last four games went over. Thunder won/covered their last four games with Portland; they’re 2-3 vs spread in last five visits to Oregon. Four of last six series games stayed under.

Pistons are in playoffs for only 2nd time in last 10 years; their last playoff series win was in ’08. Milwaukee is in playoffs for 3rd year in row; they lost last eight first round series- their last series win was in ’01. Bucks won eight of last ten games with Detroit; under is 5-2-1 in last eight series games. Pistons are 2-3-1 vs spread in last six visits to Milwaukee. Detroit split its last eight games; they’re 5-2 vs spread in last seven road games. Five of their last seven games went under. Bucks won seven of last ten games; six of their last seven games went over.

Jazz are in playoffs for 3rd year in row; they’re 5-2 in last seven first round series. Houston is in playoffs for 7th year in row; they won three of last four first round series. Utah won eight of last ten games; they’re 6-2 vs spread in last eight road games. Last three Jazz games went over. Rockets won/covered six of its last seven games; they’re 5-0-1 vs spread in last six home games. Over is 3-1-1 in their last five games. Houston won seven of its last ten games with the Jazz; five of last seven series games stayed under. Jazz is 3-1-1 vs spread in its last five visits to Houston.

PORTLAND is 12-0 OVER the Total in Home games vs poor defensive teams - allowing 106+ ppg - 2nd half of the season this season. PORTLAND is 12-1 OVER the Total in Home games vs good offensive teams - scoring 106+ ppg - 2nd half of the season for this season.

The Indiana Pacers are 12-1 ATS as road dogs in the playoffs against foes coming off a SU underdog win.

Highest-rated Favorite: Houston 131.553
Lowest-rated Favorite: Boston 121.010
Highest-rated Underdog: Oklahoma City 123.607
Lowest-rated Underdog: Detroit 111.564
Highest O/U Rating: Oklahoma City 230.248
Lowest O/U Rating: Detroit 205.592

Trail Blazers: were 6-0 SUATS in this series prior to losing all four games this season … Thunder: 1-13 SU and 2-12 ATS away in Game One of a playoff series; and 3-11 SU and 5-9 ATS last 14 overall playoff games … With .646 or greater home teams in Game One of a playoff series 20-6 ATS when paying with same-season quadruple revenge exact,

HIGH Over / Under lines = UNDERS: Since 1992, NBA Playoff games with OU lines of 226 or more points have gone 1-9 O/U (90% Under) in ROUNDS 1, 2, and 3 (Nets at

• These teams finished the season in completely different ways as Indiana went 4-9 SU and 6-7 ATS through its last 13 games, while Boston sported a record of 6-2 SU and 4-4 ATS in its final eight. The Celtics had an average winning margin of 8.83 down the stretch and the Pacers had an average losing margin of 9.56 in their last 13 matches. Boston took three of four from Indiana this year with an average winning margin of 16.33 points.
• The OVER has been the profitable play for both squads in the latter stages of the year with the total going OVER in seven of Indiana’s last 11 and in eight of Boston’s last 11. In their last 11, the Pacers have had an average combined score of 219.36, while the Celtics’ average combined score has been 221.09. In the four meetings between the two clubs, three games went OVER with an average combined score of 221.5.
• The Celtics offense hasn’t been that threatening through the final games of the regular season as they averaged 110.2 ppg to rank 22nd. However, they’ve been shooting the ball well, ranking 13th with an overall shooting percentage of 46.3, and fared even better from beyond the arc over the last 10 games, hitting 37 percent of their attempts from long range to rank ninth over that span. Defensively, Boston was 10th down the stretch in surrendering just 109.7 ppg and it has done a good job getting in the face of opponents from downtown, limiting them to just 32.3 three-point attempts per game.
• Indiana finished the year ranking 24th over its final 10 games with just 108.7 ppg, but had the ninth-best shooting percentage from the floor, knocking down 47.3 percent of its attempts. The Pacers were dangerous from long range, burying 39 percent of their triple attempts to rate sixth. On the defensive side of the ball, the Pacers were slightly better than the Celtics, allowing 109.2 ppg to rank ninth, and slowed the pace to hold their foes to just 90.3 shot attempts per game.

The Pacers look to create turnovers for offensive opportunities and led the league by scoring 18 ppg off turnovers in their last 10 contests. Creating takeaways against Boston may prove to be a difficult task, though, as the Celtics averaged the fourth-fewest giveaways per game down the stretch at just 11.4 per game.

• Portland has been on an absolute tear since mid-March, sporting a record of 11-2 SU and 6-7 ATS with an average winning margin of 8.82. Meanwhile, Oklahoma City had a four-game losing slide in mid-March but has since gone 7-3 SU and 6-4 ATS with an average winning margin of 8.86. The Thunder swept the four-game season set vs the Trail Blazers with an average winning margin of seven.
• Both teams have been filling the basket frequently and that has led to the OVER being a smart play recently with the total going OVER in seven of Portland’s last 12 contests and in seven of Oklahoma City’s last 12. In their last dozen games, the Thunder have had an average combined score of 226.42, while the Trail Blazers’ average combined score was 230.75.
• Scoring hasn’t come with much difficulty for Portland through the final 10 contests of the regular season as it poured in 118.7 ppg, ranking sixth during that stretch. Additionally, the Trail Blazers have taken the fifth-most shot attempts per game over that span, but rank 20th with a 34.6 shooting percentage from beyond the arc. Defensively, they rank in the middle of the pack, surrendering 110.9 ppg, but they have done a terrific job defending the three-point line, ranking third by restricting opponents to a measly 32.3 shooting percentage from long range.
• Oklahoma City has been pushing the pace aggressively down the stretch, averaging 114.7 ppg to rank 13th in the NBA. The Thunder have taken the second-most shots per game over that span but haven’t been very efficient, shooting only 45.2 percent to rate 20th. Keeping points off the board has been a bit of an issue as the Thunder rank 16th in the Association by surrendering 111.0 ppg, but they have allowed the fourth-fewest shot attempts in their last 10 games. A big issue for OKC defensively has been stopping the three as it ranks 26th in allowing opponents to hit 38.3 percent from beyond the arc.

I anticipate a fantastic battle around the rim in this contest as Portland scored the second-most points in the paint through its last 10 games, while Oklahoma City surrendered the second-fewest PITP over the same span. Additionally, the Trail Blazers averaged 12.5 giveaways per game, ranking 12th, but the Thunder created the most takeaways at 15.1.

• Very seldom have we seen Milwaukee go on an extended losing slide this season and that was true through its final 10 games of the season as the team went 7-3 SU and 5-4-1 ATS. Meanwhile, Detroit had a rough end to the season, sporting a record of 4-7 SU and 5-5-1 ATS through its final 11 contests. The Bucks went 4-0 SU and 3-0-1 ATS in the four meetings with the Pistons with an average winning margin of 14.75.
• These two teams have been on the opposite ends of the scoring spectrum through the latter stages of the regular season and because of this, they have been on opposite sides of the total as well. The total has gone UNDER in six of Detroit’s last 10 contests with an average combined score of 205.9, while the total has gone OVER in seven of Milwaukee’s last 10 with an average combined score of 238.2. The total went UNDER in three of the four regular-season meetings between these teams with an average combined score of 214.25.
• Scoring has come with ease for the Bucks in the last 10 games of the regular season as they have poured in 123.2 ppg to lead the NBA while posting the seventh-best shooting percentage and taking the fifth-most three-point attempts. On the defensive side of the ball, Milwaukee ranked 19th at 115 ppg allowed, but it has restricted opponents to a measly 43.4 percent shooting from the floor, which is the fourth-lowest percentage in the league.
• Detroit has struggled to put points on the board in the latter stages of the season, scoring just 102.7 ppg, which was the third-lowest average in the Association. Additionally, the Pistons have had the NBA’s worst shooting percentage from the floor over the last 10 games, knocking down just 42.7 percent of their attempts. However, as bad as the offense has been over that span, the defense has been the complete opposite with the Pistons holding their foes to just 103.2 ppg, the second-best mark in the league, and allowing the third-fewest shot attempts as well.

I anticipate the Bucks will dominate the glass in this series and dictate the pace of play as they secured the most rebounds per game through their last 10 matches and the Pistons ranked 23rd.

• Both teams have been very strong in the second half of the regular season and, more recently, Utah has gone 8-2 SU and 6-4 ATS through its last 10 games with an average winning margin of 18. Similarly, Houston has also been on a tear through the final 10 matches of the season with a record of 8-2 SU and 7-2-1 ATS and an average winning margin of 22.25. The two teams split their four-game season series with the Jazz winning their two games by a combined margin of 38, while the Rockets had a combined winning margin of 32.
• The Rockets have been a great defensive team down the stretch and the total has gone UNDER in six of their last 10 games but with an average combined score of 221.9. Meanwhile, the Jazz have split the total through their last 10 games, with five going OVER and five going UNDER and an average combined score of 225.5. The total went UNDER in three of the four meetings between Houston and Utah with an average combined score of 205.
• Offensively, Houston has been one of the better teams down the stretch, racking up 119.4 ppg through its final 10 games to rank fourth in the NBA. Much of that scoring came from beyond the arc as the Rockets averaged 49.8 attempts from long range, by far the most in the Association. Additionally, they were the best defensive squad in the league over the final 10 matches, restricting opponents to 102.5 ppg and 43.7 percent shooting from the floor (sixth).
• Utah is right there offensively with Houston, pouring in 119.4 ppg, and it had the second-best shooting percentage from the floor, hitting 50.6 percent of its total attempts through the final 10 games. On the defensive side of the ball, the Jazz limited their opponents to 106 ppg for the fourth-best mark in the NBA over the same time frame. Perhaps most critical for this series is that Utah’s opponents shot just 32 percent from beyond the arc.

Turnovers could be the demise of the Jazz, though, as they ranked 26th by committing 15.2 giveaways per game through their last 10, while the Rockets created the sixth-most takeaways over that span at 14.0. However, Utah should have an advantage around the rim as it chipped in the third-most points in the paint per game, while Houston ranked 20th defensively in the paint.

Good shit sir!

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