Posted:
#1
79-54 YTD
Rockets -5.5
This is a dangerous spot for the reigning world champs as they come into Houston having lost a lot of momentum and find themselves barely holding on to the top seed in the East. The injury to Love was crucial in so many ways for the Cavs and they just plain and simple don't have the personnel to make up for everything that he brings to the table. On a night in and night out basis, there's constant struggle to defend and it's showing in the 5-5 record that they've put together since his injury.
The Rocket's haven't been steller in that same period of time though either, compared to what we've seen them do most the season as they've only gone 6-4 over their last ten.
For me though, there's a ton more concern for the Cavaliers than the Rockets.
First off, you never know what you're going to get with the Cavs on the second game of a b2b. Twice the Cavs have sat both Kyrie and Lebron. I doubt that will happen here, but it's like betting on an over compared to an under. You always have overtime in your back pocket if needed on an over, and with the Cavs, we have that 25% chance Lue will rest Lebron and Kyrie. Almost definitely won't happen in this spot, but we've seen strange stuff happen in the NBA and it's worth mentioning none the less. When Kyrie does play, his scoring is six PPG lower than his season average and he's shooting six percentage points lower. Are those numbers going to drop even more having to try to chase James Harden around all game? That's something to also consider.
Since the injury to Love, the Cavs have been outshot by their opponents in nine out of ten games. Even teams like the Bucks, Boston and Atlanta are out shooting the Cavs. It'd be pretty silly to think that the Rockets won't also out shoot the Cavs. I find this to be a significant advantage for Houston, espeically in a matchup which more than liekly will be a shoot out style game and comebine that with the fact that the Cavs hold the worst defensive rating over the last ten games in the entire NBA that makes it even harder to back Cleveland. Yes, I did say worst, as in the Nets and Lakers have been better.
This is pretty much a game that comes down to how well Houston plays. If they defend like they're capable of, and don't shoot 2% from the three point line like they did against the Pacers at home, it'll be highly improbable that Cleveland will be able to keep this within 8-10 points. At some point in time, the Cavs gotta rest Lebron and even in a close game, in those six or seven minutes he's on the bench, a team like Houston could break the game wide open.
I hope to see Lou Williams be better than he has been, only shooting 20% over the month of March. I have no question that James Harden will put up monster numbers this game as it will almost be like a playground style level of defense coming off of Kyrie.
The Miami Heat is a common opponent who whooped both the Cavs and the Rockets. If they exposed anything, they exposed how vulnerable each team can be to the three pointer, but there's no question in my mind that the Cavs wil have a much tougher job at defending Houston than the other way around. The Rocket's just have to put the ball in the hole.
Too much offensive explosion with Houston and too much defensive liability with the Cavs. I'll take the home team against a struggling Cavs squad playing on the second game of a b2b on the road.
0
Hot Forum Topics
