During the 2019 finals the Warriors lost all three games at home and it cost them the title. They know how important game one is, especially at home. This will also be thee first finals game in their new arena in SF, a Christening of sorts.They also know how dangerous these Celtics are on the road. Their rest advantage (as a jump shorting team) will diminish with each passing game, as the teams wear each other out.
Game ones are often feel-out games. The Celtics have not seen this iteration of the Warriors team but the Warriors have seen the Celtics. The Celtics handed the Warriors a stinging defeat the last time they were in SF and just when the Warriors were getting healthy they knocked out Curry by rolling on his ankle. In hindsight, that may have been a blessing in disguise. Even though the Warriors went into a tailspin and were not able to gel until the playoffs, it gave Curry some much needed time off while guys like Poole and Thompson were able to drive the car and lead the team, which speeded up their progress (mentally and physically) and got both ready for the playoffs.
The Celtics are great counterpunchers while the Warriors are often front runners. If the Celtics had lost game one to the Nets they’d be 0-3 in the playoffs in game ones this year.
The Warriors play a unique brand of basketball that the Celtics don’t see often. After playing the iso-heavy nets, followed by a Bucks team led by a unique superstar that plays his own brand of basketball, followed by a Heats team with an anemic offense led by a 37 year old point guard and a 33 year old forward who loves the mid range game and inside game, the Celtics will now be confronted by a team that moves ball and bodies in a such a way that anyone on the floor can become a scoring threat at any given moment. This will take some adjusting to.
The Warriors have multiple guys who have been to the Finals. This is the the first appearance for everyone on the Celtics.
The scheduling spot. In addition to the lack of rest, when compared to the Warriors, the Celtics will have to battle emotional fatigue and the hangover from digging deep and coming back to win a series on the road after dropping game 6 at home and barely hanging on to win game 7 in dramatic fashion.
The intangibles:
4 victories to go and they become immortal Basketball gods of the highest order, when everyone had written them off and counted them out. When everyone said Durant won them those titles. When everyone said the first title was not earned because LBJ’s guys (Irving and Love) were hurt. When everyone made fun of their 73 win team for choking away a title. This one is for all the marbles. Now at age 34, 32, and 32 for Curry, Thompson and Green to win it all, their legacies will be secure and history will be rewritten. Now history will say it was Durant who rode on their coattails. It was Daymond’s suspension and Curry’s injury during the playoffs that cost them the title and not a choke at all. And the 2015-16 team would have won a title regardless of if Irving or Love played alongside LBJ. If you put yourselves in these guys shoes for one minute, you’ll see what I’m talking about.
Although I believe this will be a hard fought series that probably goes 7, I like the Warriors in game one for the reasons outlined above. However, it goes without saying that nothing is guaranteed in life or sports betting, so tail at your own risk.
Warriors ml -155
Warriors-3.5
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