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The Unwritten Rule of Playoff Basketball

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hustle_man

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Joined: Jan, 2006

Posts: 11331

Posted: May. 17, 2015 - 5:26 PM ET #151

BB should've followed his own advice

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scalabrine

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Joined: Sep, 2006

Posts: 28221

Posted: May. 17, 2015 - 5:55 PM ET #152

At some point live betting he musta hedged out something. He always does.

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begginerboy

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Joined: Jul, 2013

Posts: 14916

Posted: May. 30, 2016 - 12:52 AM ET #153

Quote Originally Posted by begginerboy:

For all of you who waited patiently, here it is. And I hope it is worth your while.

The law says: In a series between two evenly matched teams, the team that gives away a game (and understanding what this means is crucial to understanding the law) will lose the series 90% of the time; a percentage that is directly proportional to their chances of winning the game they gave away.

Basketball playoff history is so replete with examples of this that I can’t believe no one discovered this law sooner. Before I delve in to the examples, however, we have to define what we mean by “give away a game.” Of course, there is a subjective element to saying a team gave away a game, so we will have to do our best to remove that level of subjectivity from our definition. We do that by saying, a team gives away a game when (within the laws of statistical probability) they had a 90% or more chance of winning that game (meaning, they would win that game 9 out of ten times in that exact situation) when they proceeded to lose it. A team losing a game on a last second shot is not enough to qualify under this law unless what transpired before that shot was so unlikely and improbable that it would not happen 90% of the time.

Now let’s give some concrete examples to show what we mean.

One of my favorite examples (and one we’ve see in a countless time on replays) was Bird stealing the inbound pass from Isiah in game 5 of the ECF, and feeding it to DJ for the score and the win. That loss was so devastating for the Pistons (who were, to my mind, the better team that year, as the Celtics were old, beat-up and on their decline) that they never recovered, even though they won the next game.

Other examples, in no particular order, are: from this year’s playoffs, the Grizz up by 5 with about a minute to play in game 4, with KD and Westbrook shooting bricks, go to OT and lose the game. Although they won game 5, they never recovered from that loss and lost the series. The 2000 Blazers/Lakers series had two such games. First, game 3, where the Blazers were ahead for the 1st three quarters only to lose by 2 at the end. And then, of course, there was their historic game 7 meltdown, where they were up 75-60 in the 4th. Game 2 of Heat/Mavs series, during the 2011 finals, with the Heat up 88-73 with 7:15 to play in the game (LBJ and Wade were preening), collapsed and lost. The Heat, like all the others, never recovered from that loss. The Spurs, last year’s game 6, up 93-89 (with 28 seconds to play) missed a couple of free throws, which they would normally make, only to have Ray Allen send the game to OT, and lose. Game 3 of Mavs/Heat 2006 Finals, Mavs were up 91-81 with 5 minutes to play (about to go up 3-0 in the series) and they only end up scoring 5 more points in the next five minutes, losing the game by two points 96-98 and never winning another game.

Of course, there are many reasons why this law hold true so often, reasons that I don't have time to get into, lest my wife bans me from the bedroom. So I'll just end with this:

Which team does this law apply to, as we sit here today: You guessed it, the OKC Thunder.

A note to Scal: I need a snazzy name to this law, like your law of national embarrassment.

I've decided to dust off this old, controversial law (which ironically the Thunder overcame that year because the Clippers also gave a game away), that was a source of such debate when it was first unveiled, because I think it applies to tomorrows game 7. Let's hope I don't jinx the Warriors like I did the Clippers.

"Warriors fans most assuredly weren't having fun with a little less than half a quarter remaining in this game. As Tom Haberstroh pointed out on Twitter, at that juncture, Inpredict had Oklahoma City with a roughly 90 percent chance to seal a Finals trip. What followed was a desperate champion, seizing moment after moment."

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Quote Originally Posted by begginerboy:

For all of you who waited patiently, here it is. And I hope it is worth your while.

The law says: In a series between two evenly matched teams, the team that gives away a game (and understanding what this means is crucial to understanding the law) will lose the series 90% of the time; a percentage that is directly proportional to their chances of winning the game they gave away.

Basketball playoff history is so replete with examples of this that I can’t believe no one discovered this law sooner. Before I delve in to the examples, however, we have to define what we mean by “give away a game.” Of course, there is a subjective element to saying a team gave away a game, so we will have to do our best to remove that level of subjectivity from our definition. We do that by saying, a team gives away a game when (within the laws of statistical probability) they had a 90% or more chance of winning that game (meaning, they would win that game 9 out of ten times in that exact situation) when they proceeded to lose it. A team losing a game on a last second shot is not enough to qualify under this law unless what transpired before that shot was so unlikely and improbable that it would not happen 90% of the time.

Now let’s give some concrete examples to show what we mean.

One of my favorite examples (and one we’ve see in a countless time on replays) was Bird stealing the inbound pass from Isiah in game 5 of the ECF, and feeding it to DJ for the score and the win. That loss was so devastating for the Pistons (who were, to my mind, the better team that year, as the Celtics were old, beat-up and on their decline) that they never recovered, even though they won the next game.

Other examples, in no particular order, are: from this year’s playoffs, the Grizz up by 5 with about a minute to play in game 4, with KD and Westbrook shooting bricks, go to OT and lose the game. Although they won game 5, they never recovered from that loss and lost the series. The 2000 Blazers/Lakers series had two such games. First, game 3, where the Blazers were ahead for the 1st three quarters only to lose by 2 at the end. And then, of course, there was their historic game 7 meltdown, where they were up 75-60 in the 4th. Game 2 of Heat/Mavs series, during the 2011 finals, with the Heat up 88-73 with 7:15 to play in the game (LBJ and Wade were preening), collapsed and lost. The Heat, like all the others, never recovered from that loss. The Spurs, last year’s game 6, up 93-89 (with 28 seconds to play) missed a couple of free throws, which they would normally make, only to have Ray Allen send the game to OT, and lose. Game 3 of Mavs/Heat 2006 Finals, Mavs were up 91-81 with 5 minutes to play (about to go up 3-0 in the series) and they only end up scoring 5 more points in the next five minutes, losing the game by two points 96-98 and never winning another game.

Of course, there are many reasons why this law hold true so often, reasons that I don't have time to get into, lest my wife bans me from the bedroom. So I'll just end with this:

Which team does this law apply to, as we sit here today: You guessed it, the OKC Thunder.

A note to Scal: I need a snazzy name to this law, like your law of national embarrassment.

I've decided to dust off this old, controversial law (which ironically the Thunder overcame that year because the Clippers also gave a game away), that was a source of such debate when it was first unveiled, because I think it applies to tomorrows game 7. Let's hope I don't jinx the Warriors like I did the Clippers.

"Warriors fans most assuredly weren't having fun with a little less than half a quarter remaining in this game. As Tom Haberstroh pointed out on Twitter, at that juncture, Inpredict had Oklahoma City with a roughly 90 percent chance to seal a Finals trip. What followed was a desperate champion, seizing moment after moment."

Duderonomy

Veteran

Joined: Aug, 2015

Posts: 2468

Posted: May. 30, 2016 - 5:28 AM ET #154

Law is definitely in effect for Game 7...

The Dude imbibes

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melossinglet

Banned

Joined: Jan, 2013

Posts: 15769

Posted: May. 30, 2016 - 6:40 AM ET #155

absolutely indisputable that the game was there for the taking on the thunders part...if they had simply played sound,smart,hard basketball for 5 minutes,or even 3,they cud have wrapped it up easily and sealed it with free throws if needs be....the fact that it required historical,ridiculous shot-making by klay to even keep the warriors in it tells you all you need to know....the thunder were bossing the game and just needed adequate execution,rather than careless turnovers(westbrook) and wild,quick,ill-advised shots by durant....sum of the thunders best offense in the series has been a missed shot as their bigger,longer,hungrier frontcourt cleans up the glass to give them yet another shot and yet all durant seemed to wanna do was chuck up a shot before his team were even expecting it or in good position,or from long range where they are less likely to pick up a board closer to the rim.

simple execution and sound basketball from the thunder and they STILL cud have even with-stood thompsons flurry or insane sniper shots and come out with a win.

no doubt watsoever thats a game they shud win 9 times out of 10 with 5 or so minutes on the clock and a crowd ready to roar them on to victory and the giant prize that awaits.

tough mental hurdle to get over.

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3BallBomber

All-Star

Joined: May, 2008

Posts: 14495

Posted: May. 30, 2016 - 6:42 AM ET #156

This thread is going to blow up if GSW takes gm7

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Ultimate5

Rookie

Joined: Jan, 2015

Posts: 760

Posted: May. 30, 2016 - 2:49 PM ET #157

I wish this wasn't true, but its so true

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scalabrine

Banned

Joined: Sep, 2006

Posts: 28221

Posted: May. 30, 2016 - 3:57 PM ET #158

Quote Originally Posted by 3BallBomber:

This thread is going to blow up if GSW takes gm7

No the thread would blow up if the Thunder win, that is, the trolls will be out in full force.

If the Warriors win, there will be 5/6 comments here with handshakes and such because BB is supporting the Warriors with this theory.

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k1ngj3

Prospect

Joined: Dec, 2015

Posts: 14

Posted: May. 30, 2016 - 4:04 PM ET #159

every rule has an exception booooooooom

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melossinglet

Banned

Joined: Jan, 2013

Posts: 15769

Posted: May. 30, 2016 - 4:22 PM ET #160

Quote Originally Posted by k1ngj3:

every rule has an exception booooooooom

well,yeah...one exception out of every 10...he clearly stated that,right??

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monstergrit

Veteran

Joined: Aug, 2014

Posts: 4606

Posted: May. 30, 2016 - 5:03 PM ET #161

BB

DUBSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSS!

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scalabrine

Banned

Joined: Sep, 2006

Posts: 28221

Posted: May. 30, 2016 - 11:53 PM ET #162

This theory has held up two years in a row now against teams with 3-1 leads to complete the collapse in Game 7. Pretty Damn solid given that's 2 of only 10 teams in history have come back from 3-1 out of 224 tries.

And it looks like, more and more, the theory is covering the spread too.

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TreyInventor

All-Star

Joined: Jun, 2012

Posts: 13564

Posted: May. 30, 2016 - 11:55 PM ET #163

Bb

classic thread

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begginerboy

All-Star

Joined: Jul, 2013

Posts: 14916

Posted: May. 31, 2016 - 1:04 AM ET #164

Thanks, fellas. Trey, we should all thank Bob for the reverse jinx as well:)

Scal, I think the Warriors just managed to survive long enough to wear out the Thunder (at least Westbrook and Durant, after playing 6 hard fought games against the Spurs) and for Curry to come around and regain his stamina and form (after the layoff and injury). He finally started playing like himself these last two games. This is the guy we see all year. And, of course, the Thunder started to play like their old selves when it counted most. That's what pressure will do to you.

I imagine the NBA is keeping Foster on ice for game one, which is bad news for the Warriors. Still, I can't wait. Finally they get the chance to validate their title from last year. I hope you'll be rooting for them now.

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bum

Captain

Joined: Jan, 2008

Posts: 8442

Posted: May. 31, 2016 - 2:00 AM ET #165

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melossinglet

Banned

Joined: Jan, 2013

Posts: 15769

Posted: May. 31, 2016 - 2:29 AM ET #166

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scalabrine

Banned

Joined: Sep, 2006

Posts: 28221

Posted: May. 31, 2016 - 8:32 AM ET #167

I'm not rooting forn LBJ BB. I just wanted to see KD and Russ versus him. Now it's the Cavs with the revenge spot which irks me.

I was looking at the props before the game 7 and I found this on 5Dimes:

Curry o/u 4.5 3's: -185

Klay o/u 3.5 3's: -165

Fairly insane they'd offer those props for under -200 with the greatest 3 pt shooter ever and one that just hit 11 the night before.

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BallingLikeNE

Veteran

Joined: Jan, 2015

Posts: 2735

Posted: Jun. 14, 2016 - 10:43 AM ET #168

did game 5 qualify for this theory?

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Ultimate5

Rookie

Joined: Jan, 2015

Posts: 760

Posted: Jun. 14, 2016 - 1:37 PM ET #169

Quote Originally Posted by BallingLikeNE:

did game 5 qualify for this theory?

No, because GS never had a 90% chance of winning that game or anywhere close during the course of the game. Rule would only qualify if GS had a big lead and blew it away that game. Even if that occurred, I wouldn't necessarily say it qualifies because it is a unique situation with Draymond out and all. If they gave away a game without Draymond playing, at least they can have some confidence knowing their vocal leader and one of their most versatile playmakers/defenders is coming back

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scalabrine

Banned

Joined: Sep, 2006

Posts: 28221

Posted: Jun. 17, 2016 - 2:52 AM ET #170

Unrelated to the law,

Are the injuries to Bogut and now a hampered Iggy too much to overcome?

It feels like this is the Cavs going up in the series last year and having the injuries catch up with them, just in reverse...

Iggy was just terrible tonight because he is hurt and if he gives a repeat performance in Game 7.....

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begginerboy

All-Star

Joined: Jul, 2013

Posts: 14916

Posted: Jun. 17, 2016 - 3:20 AM ET #171

Scal, I was just looking through some of your political posts, rants etc

Good topics you have going.

The Warriors are in trouble; no doubt about that. They look like they're running on fumes, their role players have all disappeared, they can't protect the paint, and their long ball is not falling like it used to. Having said that, I did say earlier that Draymond always costs his team two games with his boneheaded moves. He wasn't quite himself tonight, as predicted. So I think he will be much better on Sunday. If you read my post about Foster and Foster led crews, you'll see that also played a factor tonight (they were edgy and rattled). Finally, getting used the playing without Bogut was also a factor. The first two will not be issues in game 7 (imo), but protecting the paint without Bogut will be an issue that they have to solve. Right now, it look like a layup drill out there.

Iggy's injury is a tough call. He could be fine, or better than he was tonight, because he has been dealing with back/neck issues throughout the playoffs, though it was particularly bad tonight.

But if they are going to win game 7, this is what has to happen (imo).

They need Livingston, Green, Iggy, Barnes and/or one other bench player to be in double figures. Then they'll need 50-60 points from Curry and Klay (all the while shooting a high percentage from three). I think all the chippiness tonight will help the Warriors, as will Kerr calling out the refs. Hopefully they'll come out with a lot more fire and impose their will on the Cavs.

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scalabrine

Banned

Joined: Sep, 2006

Posts: 28221

Posted: Jun. 17, 2016 - 4:36 AM ET #172

Thanks!

You just made me feel a lot better about the Warriors the way you laid that out. When you said Draymond would cost them TWO games, I thought he you were off your rocker but here it is!

And I agree with Foster. I never thought they'd get Curry to foul out but wow, they did. Was not the 5th Curry foul just horrendous?? The refs gave GS two quick ones right back but that was such a momentum shift because Curry had a wide open layup. A Klay/Curry three after that perhaps and Cleveland is in deep shi*.

Yes, I agree the chippiness helps. Especially Lebron pulling that playground sneer after he blocked Curry, and one that will be looped 10k times on ESPN before Game 7. Perhaps that will be something like the Westbrook laugh (I misread).

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bum

Captain

Joined: Jan, 2008

Posts: 8442

Posted: Jun. 17, 2016 - 4:47 AM ET #173

keep up the great posts!

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LONKJON

Veteran

Joined: Oct, 2007

Posts: 1561

Posted: Jun. 17, 2016 - 6:11 AM ET #174

pakalolo sweet

5297647830Basketball05/31/201609:46:56 PM

Cleveland Cavaliers 0.00HandicapGolden State Warriors -vs- Cleveland CavaliersNBA (FINAL) SERIES WINNER @ 06/19/2016

1.68I

1,280.001,280.00

Running

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composite

Veteran

Joined: Oct, 2008

Posts: 4418

Posted: Jun. 17, 2016 - 7:29 AM ET #175

Iggy's injury could be huge. If he's not 100% then there's nobody on GSW to stop Lebron.

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The Unwritten Rule of Playoff Basketball

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