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The Vapster Totals System Official Thread

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Posted: #76
Numbers are all wrong, where are you getting these ?
 
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Posted: #77
In the stat analysis section under matchup on covers?  

OVERALLHOUSTONNBA AVG.PORTLAND
OFFENSEDEFENSE OFFENSEDEFENSE
POINTS

108.5

104.9

103.7


109.4

112.8


 
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Posted: #78
Thanks to TK and Vapster for all their hard work.

According to my book.  based on just the numbers
I get 7 plays and they are all under. scary. 
 
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Posted: #79
Quote Originally Posted by garister:

Thanks to TK and Vapster for all their hard work.

According to my book.  based on just the numbers
I get 7 plays and they are all under. scary. 

Me too, 6 unders. 1 over (LAC-PACERS)
Its right if u did it based on H/A.
 
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Posted: #80
Quote Originally Posted by Dani9:


Me too, 6 unders. 1 over (LAC-PACERS)
Its right if u did it based on H/A.

I felt that Indy-LAC didn't qualify as a play since the differential is only 3, plays have to be diff. of 5 or more..
 
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Posted: #81
Hey everyone, I apologize for the late post. 
Today, I am testing out the updated system calculations. I am averaging Overall, Last 5, and H/A. So far the results are only different for one game (NOP@DAL). I left this out of the limits selections. 

If you are new to capping, or new to this system, I would advise making SINGLE BETS on all of the picks. I do NOT recommend parlays. Based on history, it seems some of the larger differentials are "traps". This is what the updated system is going to try to catch. (it caught the OKC game yesterday). 

Remember, consider this system to still be a WIP. I do not guarantee a winning or losing system. We have an outstanding record so far but remember this can change very quickly. 
 
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Posted: #82
SYSTEM PICKS 11/27/2017

LIMITS: 
SAC@BKN u220.5
MIL@ORL u196
ATL@LAL u209.5

NO LIMITS
CLE@PHI u210
DEN@PHX u214.5
SAC@BKN u220.5
MIL@ORL u196
LAC@IND o209.5
NOP@DAL o196.5
HOU@POR u223.5
ATL@LAL u209.5
 
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Posted: #83
Yeah, I'm seeing different numbers on Covers than in the spreadsheet. For instance, i have the Bucks Offense at 101.5 / Defense at 102.8 on the covers page. Are you guys seeing the same thing on this one? Just want to confirm I'm looking at the correct page. Thanks
 
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Posted: #84
Disregard my last post. I see you are using last 5 averages. 
 
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Posted: #85
Quote Originally Posted by spencer:

Yeah, I'm seeing different numbers on Covers than in the spreadsheet. For instance, i have the Bucks Offense at 101.5 / Defense at 102.8 on the covers page. Are you guys seeing the same thing on this one? Just want to confirm I'm looking at the correct page. Thanks
The spreadsheet is using Home/Away numbers. You are looking at Overall numbers.
 
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Posted: #86
I would say a safe bet would be if you are looking at Overall H/A And L5, and all are pointing at same direction, is it the right approach?
 
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Posted: #87
Quote Originally Posted by HaroldG:

I would say a safe bet would be if you are looking at Overall H/A And L5, and all are pointing at same direction, is it the right approach?
This is exactly what I am looking at; plus trends, injuries, etc.

Two red flags are SAC@BRK and NOP@DAL, since the numbers fluctuate so much. This is especially expected with Pelicans games since they gave been playing much better after struggling at the start of the season. Also, this system has had difficulty with Kings games in the past. 

If you play with high stakes, I would not play those two games.

 
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Posted: #88
Quote Originally Posted by TKWSNx93:

Hey everyone, I apologize for the late post. 
Today, I am testing out the updated system calculations. I am averaging Overall, Last 5, and H/A. So far the results are only different for one game (NOP@DAL). I left this out of the limits selections. 

If you are new to capping, or new to this system, I would advise making SINGLE BETS on all of the picks. I do NOT recommend parlays. Based on history, it seems some of the larger differentials are "traps". This is what the updated system is going to try to catch. (it caught the OKC game yesterday). 

Remember, consider this system to still be a WIP. I do not guarantee a winning or losing system. We have an outstanding record so far but remember this can change very quickly. 


TK is the spreadsheet link up for today? also wouldn't it make sense that the larger differentials that may be 'traps' are there for a reason, meaning the linesmakers know something that causes such a big differential in a certain match and maybe we should go opposite the trap? tracking the largest differentials and results would be helpful
All Out
 
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Posted: #89
Quote Originally Posted by StraightWagers:



TK is the spreadsheet link up for today? also wouldn't it make sense that the larger differentials that may be 'traps' are there for a reason, meaning the linesmakers know something that causes such a big differential in a certain match and maybe we should go opposite the trap? tracking the largest differentials and results would be helpful
The spreadsheet link is always the same, I only update the existing document. https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1xYGJNKFVd1i9CTgDM0-mP_lXrHYohFEZgIKh1w5HAcM

I am leaning towards your idea for sure. I think it is up to the users of this spreadsheet to decide when to fade a selection based on this circumstance
 
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Posted: #90
copy thanksTK  I will track largest diffs and results to find a trend if any... I kind of look at large diffs as an indication and note that that game has an "over tendancy" if for example the diff is 10+ or more either way like this Cavs game and upcoming Nets game, leads me to maybe place a 2nd half on the over if 1st half goes under...today the one that sticks out to me is Bucks/Magic and that high diff 7.5 suggest an over to me either 1st half, 2nd half or game that is the tough part to figure out...an big diff should make one dig deeper as to why? so far big diff in Cavs game goes over so fade the big diff and win
All Out
 
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Posted: #91
One last question. Why did the Cavs game not make the "Limits" cut at an 11.5 differential? Thanks
 
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Posted: #92
Quote Originally Posted by StraightWagers:

copy thanksTK  I will track largest diffs and results to find a trend if any... I kind of look at large diffs as an indication and note that that game has an "over tendancy" if for example the diff is 10+ or more either way like this Cavs game and upcoming Nets game, leads me to maybe place a 2nd half on the over if 1st half goes under...today the one that sticks out to me is Bucks/Magic and that high diff 7.5 suggest an over to me either 1st half, 2nd half or game that is the tough part to figure out...an big diff should make one dig deeper as to why? so far big diff in Cavs game goes over so fade the big diff and win

You are right on it. CLE@PHI is a perfect example of a red flag play the updated system caught. Large -11.5 differential for H/A, but L5 gave it a +1.5. Sure enough it goes over. 

If SAC@BRK goes over, with that large -11.5 H/A differential, this will only reinforce this theory. This also applies to NOP@DAL



 
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Posted: #93
Quote Originally Posted by spencer:

One last question. Why did the Cavs game not make the "Limits" cut at an 11.5 differential? Thanks
The updated system marked it as a "No Play" due to inconsistancies in the numbers
 
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Posted: #94
What do they mean LIMITS and NO LIMITS ? Can someone explain these  ?
 
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Posted: #95
Quote Originally Posted by dodococo96:

What do they mean LIMITS and NO LIMITS ? Can someone explain these  ?
Please look at all the posts in this thread, this question has been answered many times. 
 
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Posted: #96
Clippers game should be no play. Paul George not playing
 
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Posted: #97
Tough 0-2 start today. CLE@PHI was a no play, and then DEN@PHX shot a combined 60-68 free throws.. Total BS there were fouls on every play!
 
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Posted: #98
Rough night indeed, looks like LAC@IND are underscoring and MIL@ORL are overscoring, looks like 0-4 for me soon 
 
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Posted: #99
Quote Originally Posted by HaroldG:

Rough night indeed, looks like LAC@IND are underscoring and MIL@ORL are overscoring, looks like 0-4 for me soon 

Still early, but especially if SAC@BRK goes over, we might need to start fading large negative differentials. Too many times the large under differentials end up being wrong
 
 
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Posted: #100
Rough night, atleast i put SAC@BRK on over just went with my intuition, no chance for NOP@DAL too, maybe hou@por and ATL@LAL can make it better, can't complain tho been cashin out too easy :) 
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