thekoreanmang's NBA Picks (2020-2021)

Long time lurker, sometime poster. Started a text group with a couple of friends to share ideas for NBA picks. We started to focus on 3 pointers made by individual players but discuss other plays.

Today's Pick: CJ McCollum O2.5 3-Pointers (-177 Draftkings)

Minnesota Timberwolves @ Portland Trail Blazers (1/7, 10:00 PM EST)

Reasoning: On the season, CJ averages 4.9 3s made and 11.3 3s taken. Last 3 games, he's averaged 4 and 11 respectively. He's up against MIN tonight who allows the 11th fewest 3s at 34/game (bad for us); allows the 15th fewest 3s made at 12.9/game (meh for us); allows 22nd fewest 3PT% at 37.8% (good for us as they're in the bottom third of teams in 3PT% defense).

Considering CJ averages about eleven 3s a game, hitting 3 is more than doable. It's probably. If he takes eleven 3s tonight, he'd have to hit 27.3% to win our bet. CJ is an elite 3PT shooter and while the books are starting to adjust the line (I see some 3.5s out there at plus money) there are still books out there at 2.5. 

Feeling Risky?: O3.5 (+124; FanDuel)

I haven't taken this myself but will consider it. Depending on how buzzed I am later closer to gametime. Haha. 

Good luck to anyone who tails! My apologies in advance if it fails!

Its really good bet, unfortunately my bookie give me only 3.5 line!yeah kinda risky but better odds 

All right! So we hit yesterday with CJ hitting 4 of 9 3s. He's just elite. So long as we see 2.5 3PM for him I'm in. Onto today's picks. Record at the bottom. Also, I forgot to state how much I personally risked on the CJ bet last night which was $100 to win $57 which I remembered to post on time across the street.

Today's Picks:

Pick 1: Gordon Hayward O1.5 3-Pointers Made (-150 BetMGM)

7:30PM EST CHA @ NO

Pick 2: Mikal Bridges O1.5 3PM (-150 BetMGM)

7:05PM EST PHX @ DET

Reasoning: Both of these guys have hit the O1.5 5 of their 8 games played so far (62.5%). The teams they're playing against are bad defensively against 3PT shooting. I break it down further below for each player and the teams they're going against.

• M. Bridges Stats
• Covered O1.5 3PM in 5 of 8 games (62.5%) this season
• 3s Made/3s Attempted
• Season Avg (8 gms): 2.8 / 6
• Jan Avg (3 gms): 2.7 / 6.7
• Dec Avg (5 gms): 2.8 / 5.6 
• DET Ranks (Poor 3PT Defense):
• Season Opposing 3PT%: 25th (39.7%)
• Last 3 Games Opposing 3PT%: 27th (43.6%)
• Allows 5th most 3s made (14.3/game)
• Allows 12th most 3s attempted (35.9/game)
• Allows 6th best opposing 3PT% (39.7%)

• Hayward Stats
• Covered O1.5 3PM in 5 of 8 games (62.5%) this season
• 3s Made/3s Attempted
• Season Avg (8 gms): 2 / 5.5
• Jan Avg (4 gms): 2.3 / 5.5
• Dec Avg (4 gms): 1.8 / 5.5 
• NO Ranks (Worst 3PT defense):
• Season Opposing 3PT%: 14th best (36%)
• Last 3 Games Opposing 3PT%: 19th best (37.4%)
• Allows most 3s made (15.9/game)
• Allows most 3s attempted (44.1/game)

What I'm Risking: $50 to win $33.33 for each pick. I may risk more later after some additional research into other picks but this is where I'm at now.

Good luck to anyone who tails! My apologies in advance if it fails!

Record: 1-0

P&L: $57

ROI: 57%

Avg Odds: -177

Last Pick: O2.5 3PM CJ McCollum (-177 DraftKings)

Result: WON! CJ hit 4 3s! Covered in the 3rd qtr.

Upping both risk amounts to $100 to win $66.66 each. Also adding the below bets:

Pick 3: Brook Lopez O1.5 3PM (-110 DK)

8pm UTA @ MIL

Reasoning:

• Brook Lopez Stats
• Covered O1.5 3PM in 4 of 8 games (50%) this season
• 3s Made/3s Attempted
• Season Avg (8 gms): 1.8 / 4.1
• Jan Avg (3 gms): 3 / 6.3
• Dec Avg (5 gms): 1 / 2.8 
• UTA Ranks (Bad 3PT% defense; Don’t allow many 3s though):
• Season Opposing 3PT%: 2nd worst (40.3%)
• Last 3 Games Opposing 3PT%: 15th (36.4%)
• Allows 12th fewest 3s made (12.3/game)
• Allows 3rd fewest 3s attempted (30.4/game)

Notes: Brook as of late has been hitting a lot of 3s in Jan. Dec was bad for him. UTA is a weird 3PT defense as they allow the 2nd best 3PT% to opponents but also allow the 3rd fewest attempts

Personal Risk: $100 to win $91

Pick 4: Jerami Grant O1.5 3PM (-177 DK)

Reasoning:

• Jerami Grant Stats
• Covered O1.5 3PM in 7 of 8 games (87.5%) this season
• 3s Made/3s Attempted
• Season Avg (8 gms): 2.6 / 7.6
• Jan Avg (4 gms): 2.5 / 7.8
• Dec Avg (5 gms): 2.8 / 7.5 
• PHX Ranks (Normally good 3PT defense but last 3 gms have been bad):
• Season Opposing 3PT%: 9th (35%)
• Last 3 Games Opposing 3PT%: 28th (46.2%)
• Allows 2nd fewest 3s made (10.3/game)
• Allows 2nd fewest 3s attempted (29.3/game)

Notes: J. Grant has faced middling 3PT defensive teams except for ATL (2nd best 3PT% defense) which he made 3 of 8 3PM. J. Grant’s solo performance merits the bet but PHX is a stingy 3PT defense which hurts us. However, PHX has been leaky as of late in terms of allowing opponents more efficient 3PT shooting.

Personal Risk: $100 to win $57 

That's 3-1 on the night.

Risked: $400

Won: $114.66

ROI%: 28.67%

Avg Odds: -147

To date:

About last night! Here's today so far:

Game Info: 7:05pm EST MIA -6 @ WSH; O/U 230

Pick: K. Olynyk O1.5 3-Pointers Made (-148 DK; -165 BetMGM)

Reasoning/Data:

• K. Olynyk 3PT Stats:
  
  • Covered O1.5 3PM in 4 of 6 games (66.7%) this season
  • 3s Made/3s Attempted
    
    • Season Avg (6 gms): 2.5 / 5.8
    • Jan Avg (3 gms): 3.3 / 6.7
    • Dec Avg (3 gms): 1.7 / 5
• WSH 3PT Defensive Ranks:
  
  • Allowed 2nd highest opposing 3PT% (47.3%)
  • Allows 15th most 3s made (12.7/game)
  • Allows 4th fewest 3s attempted (31.7/game)
  • Allows 3rd highest opposing 3PT% (40%)

Addt’l Reasoning for Picking K. Olynyk: Olynyk averages about 8 FG/game. Six of those are 3s. Even though he only averages about 25 min/game, his main purpose is to score 3s as the stretch big (a la Brook Lopez). Not to mention, Olynyk (6’11”) will draw Rui (6’8”) on defense who’s not exactly known for his defense and gives up 3” in height.

Personal Risk: $100 to win $68 (-148 DraftKings)

705pm EST ATL -5 @ CHA; O/U 228

Pick 2: G. Hayward O1.5 3-Pointers Made (-177 DK; -175 BetMGM; -200 FanDuel)

• G. Hayward 3PT Stats:
  • Covered O1.5 3PM in 6 of 8 games (75%) this season
  • 3s Made/3s Attempted
    • Season Avg (8 gms): 2.2 / 5.7
    • Jan Avg (4 gms): 2.6 / 5.8
    • Dec Avg (4 gms): 1.8 / 5.5
• ATL 3PT Defensive Ranks:
  • Allows 2nd fewest 3s made (10.6/game)
  • Allows 14th most 3s attempted (35.4/game)
  • Allows lowest opposing 3PT% (30%)
  • Allowest lowest opposing 3PT% Last 3 Games (29.1%)
• Pros:
  • Personal performance is trending upwards
  • Primary scorer
  • Plays tons of minutes (35 min/game)
  • Went 4-9 3s on 1/6/21 vs ATL
• Cons:
  • ATL is stingiest 3PT defense
  • Played 38 min last nt
  • 2nd nt of b2b

Personal Risk: $100 to win $57.14 (-175 BetMGM)

Pick 3: Parlay of the below two picks

- G. Hayward O1.5 3-Pointers Made (-177 DraftKings)
- K. Olynyk O1.5 3-Pointers Made (-148 DraftKings)

Personal Risk: $25 to win $40.94 (+164 DraftKings)

705pm EST PHX @ IND -3.5; O/U 215

Pick 4: M. Brogdon O1.5 3-Pointers Made (-190 DraftKings; -190 BetMGM; O2.5 (+134) FanDuel)

Data

• M. Brogdon 3PT Stats:
• Covered O1.5 3PM in 7 of 8 games (87.5%) this season
• 3s Made/3s Attempted
• Season Avg (8 gms): 3.1 / 6.6
• Jan Avg (3 gms): 5 / 8.3
• Dec Avg (5 gms): 2 / 5.6 
• PHX 3PT Defensive Ranks:
• Allows fewest 3s made (10.3/game)
• Allows 2nd fewest 3s attempted (27.4/game)
• Allows 7th lowest opposing 3PT% (34.7%)
• Allows 6th highest opposing 3PT% Last 3 Games (42.9%)

Pros: 

• Personal performance is dominant esp in Jan
• Primary scorer
• Plays tons of minutes (37.3 min/game)
• Went 7-10 3s on 1/2/21 vs NYK which was one of the stingiest 3PT defenses at the time 
• Coming of 2-day rest

Cons: 

• PHX is stingy 3PT defense
• Has averaged 42 min/gm in Jan

Personal Risk: $100 to win $52.64 (Split $50 and $50 at DraftKings and BetMGM)

8:30PM EST ORL @ DAL

Pick 5: N. Vucevic O1.5 3-Pointers Made (-180 DraftKings; -200 BetMGM; -205 FanDuel)

Data

• Vuc 3PT Stats:
• Covered O1.5 3PM in 5 of 9 games (55.6%) this season
• 3s Made/3s Attempted
• Season Avg (9 gms): 2.4 / 5.6
• Jan Avg (4 gms): 2.5 / 6
• Dec Avg (5 gms): 2.4 / 5.2 
• DAL 3PT Defensive Ranks:
• Allows 9th fewest 3s made (11.9/game)
• Allows 12th most 3s attempted (36.3/game)
• Allows 3rd lowest opposing 3PT% (32.8%)
• Allows 5th lowest opposing 3PT% Last 3 Games (32.2%)

Pros: 

• 1/3 of Vuc’s FGA are 3s
• Primary scorer
• Plays good amount of minutes (31.2 min/game)
• Jokic went 4-10 3s on 1/7/21 vs DAL which bodes well for Vuc who plays the same position. 
• Despite being on the 2nd night of a back-to-back, last season Vuc averaged 33 min/game and 2.1 3PM / 5 3PA.

Cons: 

• DAL is stingy 3PT% defense
• 2nd night of back-to-back. Could be tired and be held back minutes-wise which happened earlier this year where he played 28 min.

Personal Risk: $100 to win $56 (-180 DraftKings)

Looking back the last 15 matches against Dallas for Vucevic, he has never scored 2+ threes. 1/7 in the last match, 1/3 before that, 1/2 before that and then he never scored or shot more than 1 three. He sure has changed his game up though, if he shoots close to 7 again this game he should get it. Interesting prop good luck.

Rolling with Brogdon 2+

I enjoy reading your plays, definitely helps me on my own analysis, best of luck 

@StraightWagers

Thanks, my bro.

@Alexg85

Good input on Vuc. Looking at how they fare in past matchups is definitely helpful but you're right, Vuc's game has changed drastically along with most bigs in the NBA. And, as I speak, Vuc just hit his 2nd three with 1:59 to go in the 4th. My goodness. Needed that mucho.

He did shoot 7 again that played out well great finds

3-2 on the night. 3-1 sans parlay.

1/10/21 SUN

3pm EST UTA -7,5 @ DET; O/U 215.5

PICK 1: R. O’Neale O1.5 3-Pointers Made (-146 FanDuel; -110 BetMGM)

• R’O’Neale 3PT Stats:
• Covered O1.5 3PM in 7 of 9 games (77.8%) this season (incl. the last 7 in a row)
• 3s Made/3s Attempted
• Season Avg (9 gms): 2.2 / 4.3
• Jan Avg (5 gms): 3 / 5.6
• Dec Avg (4 gms): 1.3 / 2.8 
• DET 3PT Defensive Ranks:
• Allowed 3rd (tied) most 3s made (14.6/game)
• Allowed 2nd most 3s attempted (39.4/game)
• Allowed 8th highest opposing 3PT% (38.6%)
• Pros:
• Plays a good amount of minutes (31.8)
• Almost all of the FGs he takes are 3s (3PT specialist?)
• Cons:
• Not a primary scorer

PERSONAL RISK: $100 to win $90.90 (-110 BetMGM)

Interesting bets, keep it up bro 

Updated Cons section for R. O'Neale:

• Cons:
• Not a primary scorer
• May not be a close game. If so, Royce could get pulled before he makes two 3s. I wouldn’t consider this as big of a risk as stars tend to get rested first before other starters.
• Has he covered the number too many times now? Regression?

8:40pm EST TOR -3 @ GSW; O/U 230.5

PICK 2: K. Lowry O2.5 3-Pointers Made (-164 FanDuel; -150 BetMGM)

Data/Reasoning: 

• K. Lowry 3PT Stats:

• Covered O2.5 3PM in 5 of 7 games (71.4%)
• 3s Made/3s Attempted
• Season Avg (7 gms): 2.9 / 8
• Jan Avg (3 gms): 2.3 / 8
• Dec Avg (4 gms): 3.3 / 8 

• GSW 3PT Defensive Ranks:

• Allowed 2nd most 3s made (14.9/gm)
• Allowed 9th most 3s attempted (37/gm)
• Allowed 2nd highest opposing 3PT% (40.2%)
• Last 3 Games: Allowed 9th lowest (tied) opposing 3PT% (35%)
• Pros:
• Plays a ton of minutes (37)
• More than half of the FGs he takes are 3s
• Coming off 3 days rest which has been kind to this fat boy’s 3PT shooting:
• 2020-21: 4.5 / 9 (3PM / 3PA) (2 gms)
• 2019-20: 3 / 9.8 (5 gms)
• 2018-19: 2.8 / 6.7 (9 gms)
• 2017-18: 3.3 / 8.3 (7 gms)
• High suggested game total
• Cons:
• I would normally wonder if 3days off would hinder a NBA player’s performance and introduce some rust but Kyle’s past +3 days off 3PT stats have been great.

Personal Risk: $100 to win $66.67 (-150 BetMGM)

PICK 3: F. Van Vleet O3.5 3-Pointers Made (-106 FanDuel (was +114 in AM))

Data/Reasoning:

• FVV 3PT Stats:
• Cover O3.5 3PM in 5 of 8 games (62.5%)
• 3s Made / #s Attempted
• Season Avg (8 gms): 3.8 / 9.1
• Jan Avg (4 gms): 4.3 / 9
• Dec Avg (4 gms): 3.3 / 9.3
• 1 Day of Rest (5 gms): 4.2 / 9

• GSW 3PT Defensive Ranks:

• Allowed 2nd most 3s made (14.9/gm)
• Allowed 9th most 3s attempted (37/gm)
• Allowed 2nd highest opposing 3PT% (40.2%)
• Last 3 Games: Allowed 9th lowest (tied) opposing 3PT% (35%)
• Allowed 5th most 3PM to SG (3.8/gm)
• Pros:
• Plays a ton of minutes (35.3)
• Primary scorer (1st on team)
• Half of the FGs he takes are 3s
• High suggested game total
• Cons:
• To make four 3s in a game is a lot even for FVV. 
• Don’t have much historical performance to go off of since FVV’s usage/playing time are at all time highs this year and as such he’s basically a different player this year than in years past

Personal Risk: $100 to win $94.94 (-106 FanDuel)

Note: I really do not like picking two players on the same team in the same game to go over the 3PM total. It’s kinda like having two WRs from the same team on your fantasy football team (like I did this year with Corey Davis and AJ Brown; still got 2nd though). FVV O3.5 and Lowry O2.5 3PM has hit only twice this year out of 9 games that TOR has played. It happened once against NO (one of the worst 3PT defenses) and against NYK (was a stingy, top-5 3PT defense at time and score was really low 100-83). However, GSW is one of the worst 3PT defenses in the league (worse than NO). I can see today being the 3rd time that both guys cover the 3PM number. I saw FVV O3.5 at +114 on FanDuel this morning but walked away thinking that it was too high and there was a reason that plus odds were being dangled. However, this afternoon I see the odds have dropped to -106 at FanDuel and is currently being offered at -110 or -115 at DraftKings and BetMGM. Feels crazy but I’ve done the work and the math seems to work out. 

Note 2: If anyone has a suggestion for a reputable online book that has good 3PM odds/prices then please let me know. I also use BookMaker and theScoreBet but neither offer 3PM props.