Trust the Chase - Year Long Thread

read a decent portion of the thread, seems fun and even more fun since it’s mostly profitable. I’m not gonna follow system since it is kind of a lot, but I’ll be tailing your game 6/7/8 game plays. 

@GTRandy

 It's got a couple down years, but nothing crazy, especially if your base unit is $1.60. Cheers 

Todays plays are:

Celtics/76ers OVER - Both teams are a game 1 play, Total units to wager is 2

Pistons/Hawks UNDER - Hawks are a game 4 play on the under for 27 units.

Heat/Raptors OVER - Raptors are a game 1 play on the over for 1 unit.

Magic/Twolves OVER - Both teams are a game 1 play, Total units to wager is 2

Suns/Rockets OVER - Suns are a game 1 play on the over for 1 unit.

Spurs/Warriors UNDER - Spurs are a game 5 play on the under for 81 units.

Grizzlies/Trailblazers OVER - Grizzlies are a game 2 play on the over for 3 units.

LISTEN PLEASE: I AM SMART AND KNOW WHAT IM TALKING ABOUT. 

Your system is useless and it cannot be profitable in the long run. You are not handicapping at all. You are implementing a progression system based solely on luck. The thing is, bets are not interdepentend between them. If the Spurs are on a 10 straight under streak, their 11th game is not more likely to go under or over just because of that streak. 

The only way to be profitable betting is to be very good at identifying premises that have an impact on the final score, and more importantly, BE INSANELY GOOD AT REACHING TO THE RIGHT CONCLUSIONS WITH THOSE PREMISES. 

Your strategy is a recipe to either win a very small amount (in the end you winning about 1u every time you make a bet); or go broke. If you go in that 6 game losing streak, all of a sudden you are down 240 units. A degen would say, now is the time to recover it and bet 500u; but then the chance of hitting that bet is still on average 50% (since it aint a calculated guess), so you have a 50-50 shot at recovering and being one unit up, or 740 down. 

There are plenty of theories demonstrating that a strategy like this is bs. 

Finally, I probably make on average 7 bets per night (live betting all of them). So you add that up and it is more than 1000 bets once the season ends. 10 bet downswings and upswings happen a lot. You will go broke my friend, and your system will be shattered. 

@gutinstinctus

Do what I did. Go back and implement this system against EVERY season from 2009-2019. Create spreadsheets. I have. If you don't believe it yet, then go check.

I understand that the vast majority of systems fail, not all of them do. I'm telling you, make the spreadsheets and back track the data. I've done it. It took me a LOT of hours. I've had people in this thread telling me it doesn't work since day 1. The system is like, 105-0 so far YTD on the chase. I'm good brother, I'm confident in what I've created.

I don't mind you telling me I'm wrong, but at least put in the research that I did, otherwise I feel like my opinion on this matter is far more valid than yours.

I quote you with this: 

"For the first time, we'll have teams on opposite sides of the action too. I haven't been able to think of a way to handle this other than betting both sides knowing one will lose, because the system calls for action on both sides. It is what it is, that's how I'll be handling it. You can do the same if you'd like, or change how you want to manage this particular situation, but I'm sticking to the system 100% for the entire year."

Can you realize how stupid it can be to bet both sides of the same game. It is a bookie´s dream haha. 

Finally, I swear I come respectfully. I just want to give back some and help the community to improve. This type of systems do not work. If you want to be able to make a profit at sports go and study tendencies, figure how good a team has been in a specific situation, or when X player is on the court or on the bench. How do they play from behind and how do they play when they are ahead. Everybody looks into home/away splits. But just as that is the most obvious there are hundreds of other potential splits that you can take advantage. Those are the hidden details that the books dont see

@gutinstinctus

 Good luck. I'll listen when you've done the research that I have.

There is no other way to play the system when there's action on both sides. You'd understand why if you'd done the research. I appreciate your attempt to "help", but it just doesn't mean anything to me until you've done the research.

105-0. 100+ instances of profit this year. Zero instances of loss. Even if that was $5 per instance, that's $500 more than I had at the start of the year. Why the hell wouldn't I play that? Thanks man, but again, I'm good unless you do the research and see something I don't. 

BOL 

Oh and you're wrong on the 1 unit per win thing. Again, because... you haven't done the research. It's closer to 5 units per win. Here's EVERY teams net profit or loss on the season, even factoring in teams that are in the middle of a chase, with those losses factored in as well.

Boston 8.42
Nets 26.33
Knicks 32.87
76ers 29.23
Raptors 8.28
Bulls 8.56
Cavs 51.21
Pistons 12.21
Pacers 9.87
Bucks -59.8
Hawks 10.77
Hornets 69.83
Heat 487.38
Magic 27.78
Wizards 5.66
Nuggets 7.11
Twolves 26.33
Thunder 12.35
Blazers 12.63
Jazz -53.11
Warriors 30.4
Clippers 8.42
Lakers 33.3
Suns 29.09
Kings 7.11
Mavs 35.78
Rockets 29.09
Grizzlies 62.85
Pelicans 27.78
Spurs -54.42
943.31

@arakias

 I ain´t got the time nor the motivation, but it simply is not possible. When doing it looking back, you probably were cherry picking. Saying "ok, this one did not fit and was a no play, but this one did". 

If at the end of the season you are up, you will prove your point. The problem is that I will not be able to track this system of yours, and the lines that you place your bets at, etc. But I will believe you :)

Nonetheless, good luck

@arakias

 SOUNDS GOOD TO ME

@gutinstinctus

Nothing is cherry picked. I used every single game from every single season, including the playoffs. Did not include the preseason.

The system is up a grand right now with game 1 bets being $1.60. I'm very happy with it currently. 

Hey, if nothing else, just do THIS season. Make a spreadsheet, take you less than 20 minutes. 

From the start of the season, each team bets OOOUUUOU in that order. When you get your first win, the chase stops. That teams chase starts again after their first under.

Here, I'll even give you the numbers:

Here's the bet for each game of the chase.

$1.60

$4.80

$14.40

$43.21

$129.63

$388.89

$1166.67

$3500

Here's how much you NET when you win on each game of the chase. You can see this already factors in the loss of each game before it. Game 2 is a bet of $4.80. It would pay out $4.36. Factor in the loss of $1.60 from game 1, your net profit is $2.76.

$1.45

$2.76

$6.69

$18.48

$54.84

$159.90

$478.08

$1432.64

Here's how much you lose if your chase ends on each different step, for whatever reason (end of the season, basically, or a game 8 loss)

-$1.60

-$6.40

-$20.80

-$64.01

-$193.64

-$582.53

-$1749.20

-$5249.20

Here's the Knicks for example, from the start of THIS season.

Game 1 - Pacers - OVER - $1.60 winner for net profit of $1.45.

Now you wait for the under to start the chase again...

Game 2- Philly - UNDER. The chase starts.

Game 3 - Milwaukee - OVER - $1.60 winner for net profit of $1.45.

Game 4 - Cleveland - UNDER. The chase starts.

Games 5, 6, 7, all go UNDER when you'd be betting OVER. You move to game 8 which is a bet on the UNDER, game 4 in our system.

Game 8 - UNDER - $43.21 winner for net profit of $24.88

Game 9 - UNDER. The chase starts.

Game 10, 11 go UNDER when you'd be betting OVER. You move to game 12, which is a bet on the OVER, game 3 in our system.

Game 12 - OVER - $14.40 winner for net profit of $6.69.

Game 13 - OVER - No action, chase hasn't started yet.

Game 14 - UNDER - The chase starts.

Game 15 - UNDER - we bet the over as game 1, we lose $1.60.

Total net results YTD - $32.87 winner. 

Thanks Arak. I appreciate the enthusiasm and effort into figuring something out. 

For me, just because of I base myself on math and theory. Theoretically, this does not work and it makes not much sense. You could present me a theory stating that in the past 30 years the Magic have always won their next game home, coming from a 20 point loss on the West Coast, if they have at least 2 days rest after such loss. I WOULD STILL NOT BET THAT, because I don´t believe in those coincidences. If you did bulletproof your system for the last 5 years or so, good for you, and again, I admire and appreciate your dedication, but I cannot tail it. 

I am impressed by the fact that you are up 1k. Still, all it takes to fuck everything up is that you lose 2 or 3 times in a season on the final stage

That is where I will leave it Arak. Again, best of luck. If you earn 100 k with this strategy I will be happy for you of course!

@gutinstinctus

 Appreciate you brother. It is true there are losing seasons and they are of course, due to have an equal or greater number of game 8 losses, than game 8 wins. They do happen, I can admit.

@arakias

HEADS UP:  

It appears that the Grizzlies/Trailblazers OVER will be cancelled due to COVID

@LGG79

 Thanks LG. We just pause on the Grizzlies, and their next game will be game 2.

@arakias

 Thanks for going thru the trouble to post this, it really helps. Lost last night on the last shot of the game but it happens. I don’t have the funds to keep up with the chase for the whole league but there is a ton of single bet winners . Over rockets 220 tonight let’s get it

Game 1 - Pacers - OVER - $1.60 winner for net profit of $1.45.

Now you wait for the under to start the chase again...

Game 2- Philly - UNDER. The chase starts.

Game 3 - Milwaukee - OVER - $1.60 winner for net profit of $1.45.

Game 4 - Cleveland - UNDER. The chase starts.

Games 5, 6, 7, all go UNDER when you'd be betting OVER. You move to game 8 which is a bet on the UNDER, game 4 in our system.

Game 8 - UNDER - $43.21 winner for net profit of $24.88

Game 9 - UNDER. The chase starts.

Game 10, 11 go UNDER when you'd be betting OVER. You move to game 12, which is a bet on the OVER, game 3 in our system.

Game 12 - OVER - $14.40 winner for net profit of $6.69.

Game 13 - OVER - No action, chase hasn't started yet.

Game 14 - UNDER - The chase starts.

Game 15 - UNDER - we bet the over as game 1, we lose $1.60.

Arakias

Game #5 --- #11 are Under, so how much do you bet on game #12 Over?

73 point 3rd quarter after a 37 point 2nd quarter in Atlanta game lol wtf 

@GTRandy

 We might still be alright! It's trending under... we'll see.

trending under big time until the hawks come back here and tie it up 106-106 and it looks like we will lose to OT barring pistons making a buzzer beater 

@GTRandy

 Go figure eh, blow a 10+ pt lead and go to OT. The perfect (worst) storm of events for us.

what a bad beat in atlanta game. hawks down 14 heading into 4th and tie it up to send it into OT

@GTRandy

 Yeah, sucks, but it happens. Onto the next one.

Hawks move to game 5, Raptors move to game 2.

Celtics and 76ers both complete the chase on game 1 for +0.91 units each.

Chase is now 103-0.

Will update bankroll when all games for the day have finished.