Posted:
#1
82-56 YTD
Blazers/Pelicans over 216
I think this will be the most entertaining game on the board tonight. It's the battle of BIG vs small. We'll get to see the most dynamic back court in the league vs a team with two of the most dominant big men in the league.
The Blazers have been the highest scoring team this month at 119 PPG while the Pelicans sit 101 PPG. I think that both teams will be dominant in their strong suit and the game should be a back and forth battle.
I think it's more likely that the pace plays more towards Portland than it does New Orleans just because I think the Pelicans will have ample opportunity for points against a Portland defense that's been better but still not amazing. The Pels struggle at defending guards and right now Lillard and McCollum are playing with the most confidence they have all year and as Lillard mentioned, playing with a lot of pride.
Nurkic has been the single biggest factor to what Portland's been able to do lately. He not only gives them a legitimate post game now, but he's just a multi faceted guy. He's got a pretty good mid range jump shot along with good vision and passing skills.
Plumlee never drew any attention other than his man, and teams were able to over commit on Lillard and McCollum, but with Nurkic, sometimes teams find themselves having to over commit on him which results in easy buckets for his teammates. It's a huge reason why McCollum is shooting over 50% in FG and 3PT in the month of March.
Cousins and Davis have both historically dominated Portland and I think stylistically, this is a game where the Pelicans should have a bigger advantage than they've had against similar styled teams like Utah and San Antonio. I think points will come much easier tonight.
Who wins, is a huge toss up for me. Portland's been playing well lately, but kind of like the Wizards, their defense is a liability. While being tops in the league this month in scoring along with a 5-1 record, their margin of victory is only six and that's been against a pretty weak schedule. It could also be a look ahead game as they've got the Spurs tomorrow night.
This game in my opinion is literally identical to the Wizards/Wolves game last night and I think has a real chance at playing out exactly the same way. I'm still only locked in on the over, but for any of those who want my opinion on a side, I think the Pelicans have a good shot at taking this game.
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