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Wednesday Style ----- A Pick

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Captain
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Posted: #76
Quote Originally Posted by stackedpack:

Thanks for the info.  Im GONNA FADE YOU as I feel more comfy about my Cleveland pick.  The public is not 50/50, is more like 74/26 on Detroit, and the line was soft to attract attention onto Detroit.  Game on ESPN so all you squares can watch your bet lose.  Reverse logic wins here.  MMM-Donut has it right.  Line moving in wrong directions as sharps are pounding Cleveland.

 

So I guess last night with the majority on Phx you played Port and lost. I am a square and will watch my square bet beat your square bet tonight on ESPN. The majority isn't always wrong and if the sharps hit Port last night they lost too.

 
Prospect
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Posted: #77
Actually I played the Kings.  You are right, "squares" don't lose all the time.  But keep betting with public opinion on nationally televised events and see where it gets you.  Remember the goal of line making is "supposedly" divide public attention down the middle.  If that's the case, then why do the books constantly make mistakes in dividing public opinion in nationally televised games?   The books know that the public perceives Det to be the better team and I agree.
 
However tonight, Cleveland will be the better the team.  Portland is just one game and so is this one.  In the long run, the books will win more of these trap games.
 
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Posted: #78
hey law i thought the new jersey line was funny.with the nets giving 2.5 to a hot hawks team.does vegas know something we don't
 
Captain
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Posted: #79
Quote Originally Posted by stackedpack:

Actually I played the Kings.  You are right, "squares" don't lose all the time.  But keep betting with public opinion on nationally televised events and see where it gets you.  Remember the goal of line making is "supposedly" divide public attention down the middle.  If that's the case, then why do the books constantly make mistakes in dividing public opinion in nationally televised games?   The books know that the public perceives Det to be the better team and I agree.
 
However tonight, Cleveland will be the better the team.  Portland is just one game and so is this one.  In the long run, the books will win more of these trap games.

I played this one because I think Detroit is the better team. If Detroit shuts down LB who will step up for Clev in this one. Thats how I am looking at it. Det has one of the best Defenses in the league and are capable of this task. I didn't play this one looking at where the money is going but played it talking on this forum with other gamblers who like the pick and gave reasons why.I have not found 1 thing so compelling that I had to pick Clev.But I found a few things that makes me like Det. You may be right Stack and I am not trying to argue with you but one of us will win tonight. GL tonight Stack.

 
MVP
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Posted: #80
det +1 it is gl all lawstyle win or losee u the mann
 
All-Star
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Posted: #81
 
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Posted: #82
 
Prospect
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Posted: #83
Quote Originally Posted by stackedpack:

Thanks for the info.  Im GONNA FADE YOU as I feel more comfy about my Cleveland pick.  The public is not 50/50, is more like 74/26 on Detroit, and the line was soft to attract attention onto Detroit.  Game on ESPN so all you squares can watch your bet lose.  Reverse logic wins here.  MMM-Donut has it right.  Line moving in wrong directions as sharps are pounding Cleveland.



Alright, fading the public's never hurt anyone...  Good luck with your picks

To us Detroit backers, let's hope things go our way, and win or lose, it's good to know we made an educated bet.


MmmDonut, alright man, good point.  Just thought you were directing that at me.  Good luck, hopefully you took the Pistons
 
Prospect
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Posted: #84
Doesn't look like this one is going our way.  Tough loss, Detroit just couldn't shoot the ball.  They are on pace to have their lowest scoring total all season... 

In a way I'm relieved to get that first loss off my back, it was bound to happen.  I hope everyone was still able to have a profitable night.

I'm not going to bet tomorrow just so I can cool off.  I'll be back in a few days with a better pick that will win.
 
Prospect
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Posted: #85
nice job, fell for the fix!!!
stupid bet
 
Banned
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Posted: #86
That means tmr u gonna cash.  thanks in advance
 
MVP
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Posted: #87
no big deal law u still the man u wont win them all hope we see u soon
 
Prospect
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Posted: #88
no  more picks from you, ok? just bomb in private
 
Banned
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Posted: #89
Hey, you've had some great analysis and write-ups so far. I knew you were off on this one from the start but you've got a good head on your shoulders. 
 
Keep it up and help these nincompoops on this forum make some money.
 
Prospect
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Posted: #90
Quote Originally Posted by thewaterfall:

no  more picks from you, ok? just bomb in private


  Nice dude
 
Captain
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Posted: #91
Oh well. Good job stack.My square bet loss.lol.Oh well still doing good this week and plenty of games to play.
 
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Posted: #92
dude  your good shake it off  your thinking like me vegas tells us alot
 
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Posted: #93
You are human ...

Keep up the good work.
 
Prospect
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Posted: #94
soooooooo square! the only thing that tipped me off was the first line of his post something akin to "i dont know why the line is..."
that is the sign of doom.
take your 7-1 and faddddddddddde away
 
Rookie
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Posted: #95
Don't matter that you lost, good job.  Keep up the good work
 
Prospect
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Posted: #96
Quote Originally Posted by thewaterfall:

soooooooo square! the only thing that tipped me off was the first line of his post something akin to "i dont know why the line is..."
that is the sign of doom.
take your 7-1 and faddddddddddde away


I literally just laughed out loud.  Fade me all you want
 
Captain
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Posted: #97
Good job Lawstyle.Nobody is fading you. Your doing good.
 
Covers Rehab
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Posted: #98
like i said, pick game very tough.....better stay away.
 
Prospect
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Posted: #99
As long as you keep the system of placing a bet only when you see 85% hitting probability bets, you will keep winning and lose 1 out of 8. I wonder if that's possible. It takes a lot of patience
 
 
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Posted: #100
I took cleveland last night, but nearly changed my pick after reading your write-up. Your insight is appreciated regardless of tonights outcome, we look forward to your future posts. great run so far.
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