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Whisky's Winners: Long-time Capper, First Time Poster

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Posted: #51
 
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Posted: #52
Quote Originally Posted by Cam-Bo:

I love u man!!!! 

 
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Posted: #53
Very nice run!

Any insight into how you come up with your picks? I've been trying to take up capping hoops, but so far I suck at it.
Read some articles, been watching alot of games lately, looking at everything I can possibly think of but to no avail.
5-6 so far in the last 3 days. Could be worse, but could be much better.
 
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Posted: #54
Quote Originally Posted by Ravens5220:

Very nice run!

Any insight into how you come up with your picks? I've been trying to take up capping hoops, but so far I suck at it.
Read some articles, been watching alot of games lately, looking at everything I can possibly think of but to no avail.
5-6 so far in the last 3 days. Could be worse, but could be much better.

Remember, this is gambling. None of us know anything as far as what WILL happen, we only know what MIGHT happen. This is true for all of us. Don't let someone tell you otherwise. All we know is there are certain variables and patterns that exist, and some of these are patterns that are more non-quantitative i.e. instinct, the eye-test (watching games), and some of these are more quantitative i.e. numbers and statistics.

It sounds like common sense, but my point is, that no matter how well you research, how much you watch, etc., you can still be dead wrong and lose your bet by 20+.

With that in mind, it's important to hunt for the best value you can get as far as numbers go, and betting with your gut when it matches up with the numbers.

I know basketball pretty well, but I can't bet purely off instinct all of the time. A lot of it involves checking out numbers, and if it has value and I feel it in my heart, I make the play.

Remember, the line we're given by a sportsbook is what it is for a reason. In NBA basketball especially, their lines are practically spitout by a machine and left pretty much exact, but most of the time, there's always one or two games where the number they put out is manipulated and inflated or deflated to get the type of action they want on the game.

The sportsbook is gambling just as much as we are, but they do have an edge.

Another key thing is controlling volume. We have a large volume of games to win, but we also have a large amount of games to lose as well.

I try and stick to 1-2 games a night, that's it. Primetime nights, for fun, I might pick all four, but ensuring you control your volume is strictly important.

Confidence is also key. Get yourself to the point where you know you can make your picks with resolve. Stick to what helped you win, and it will help you survive when the cold streaks rear their ugly head, and they will rear their ugly head for you, for me, for everyone else.

Good luck, and I hope you have success. 
 
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Posted: #55
One tracked play for today. Clippers +5.5, again, always buy-up on the hook just in case, but it's already been inflated by about 3 points.


Best of luck. 
 
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Posted: #56
I thought about this play and you confirmed it.

BOL!
 
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Posted: #57
Quote Originally Posted by spach79:

I thought about this play and you confirmed it.

BOL!

Good luck to you as well, sir. Back-to-back with this squad is a little overblown. No Chris Paul, no problem me thinks. That's just a few points too high to be laying.

This one might come down to freethrows at the end. 
 
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Posted: #58
Usually don't like calling games before they finish, but this one is cooked. Offense is one dimensional and they look exhausted on the defensive end.

Tough night overall for those of us that like dogs. 
 
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Posted: #59
Come on man, have some faith. It's all about swings in this sport and Clips could get back in it and cover.
 
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Posted: #60
Quote Originally Posted by Keano:

Come on man, have some faith. It's all about swings in this sport and Clips could get back in it and cover.

Totally true, fact is I'm just due for a loss. Not very confident in this number I have. 5.5 is going to be real, real tough. I also question how much fight is left in this team.

Like I said, I don't like doing it, I just feel in my gut that favorites roll on TNT today.

Dogs have been covering non-stop lately that we're "due" for an all favorites TNT night.

Let's see how the second half pulls out. Impressed by the Clippers' fight, but it's going to be real tough for them if they play as lackadaisical as they did in the first. 
 
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Posted: #61
Quote Originally Posted by whiskyonesixty:


Totally true, fact is I'm just due for a loss. Not very confident in this number I have. 5.5 is going to be real, real tough. I also question how much fight is left in this team.

Like I said, I don't like doing it, I just feel in my gut that favorites roll on TNT today.

Dogs have been covering non-stop lately that we're "due" for an all favorites TNT night.

Let's see how the second half pulls out. Impressed by the Clippers' fight, but it's going to be real tough for them if they play as lackadaisical as they did in the first. 


I know how you feel as I feel the same way. I will admit I didn't like to see public on Clippers (or at least that's what it looked like) and then the spread going up to 6.5. Let's hope they keep the momentum going into second half and keep it close at least!
 
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Posted: #62
Quote Originally Posted by Keano:



I know how you feel as I feel the same way. I will admit I didn't like to see public on Clippers (or at least that's what it looked like) and then the spread going up to 6.5. Let's hope they keep the momentum going into second half and keep it close at least!

THe whole public thing is a little overblown, but it definitely wasn't a good sign for sure.

Looking at this game on a schedule, it's easy to see why some might love the Warriors as this was a great spot to take them, oh well, we don't win'em all.


 
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Posted: #63
0-1 night, Clippers +5.5 loses.

Tough loss, but still a great run lately.

Tracked plays 8-3 
 
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Posted: #64
Had the clipps too. Main point was I thought they were gonna carry the heat over from their previous games....

that crazy road schedule finally caught up to them as they were simply out of gas....
 
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Posted: #65
Quote Originally Posted by GeneCam27:

Had the clipps too. Main point was I thought they were gonna carry the heat over from their previous games....

that crazy road schedule finally caught up to them as they were simply out of gas....

It happens, man.

Numbers looked too good to be true early in the morning but I should've known something was up with the RLM.

It's tough to read RLM on the offshores though because a lot of their lines move on air.

We'll get'em next time. 
 
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Posted: #66
Yep I saw the RLM and decided to stay away from the game.
Now on to Friday. Been my experience the public gets killed
Friday night.
 
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Posted: #67
Quote Originally Posted by whiskyonesixty:


It happens, man.

Numbers looked too good to be true early in the morning but I should've known something was up with the RLM.

It's tough to read RLM on the offshores though because a lot of their lines move on air.

We'll get'em next time. 
The line moved from -5.5 to -6.5 with about an hour or hour and a half before the game. I didn't want to over think it but that usually spells disaster for the visiting dog. Usually moves like that when other team is in a really rough spot like the Clipps were. 

I try not to over think it because it doesn't always work that as well. The total stayed around the same though, but line moved in favor of the Clipps.

In the earlier game I was already on the knicks to wipe the floor with the Cavs. Was paying attention to the line all day. Then an hour before the game the line went to -6.5 and the over jumped 2 points. I didn't think the public was doing that.... Vegas and bookies over adjust. I went for the win reverse on knicks and over as I really like that spot and the line movement was nice. 

We overlooked the spot the clipps were because they are such a good team. If this was a more even playing field I think we score Easy on the Clipps and hit on the ML as well. 

Curious to hear what you think OKC tonight against Brooklyn on the road? Early leans are towards Brooklyn.... but haven't researched the game yet.  
 
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Posted: #68
Quote Originally Posted by GeneCam27:

The line moved from -5.5 to -6.5 with about an hour or hour and a half before the game. I didn't want to over think it but that usually spells disaster for the visiting dog. Usually moves like that when other team is in a really rough spot like the Clipps were. 

I try not to over think it because it doesn't always work that as well. The total stayed around the same though, but line moved in favor of the Clipps.

In the earlier game I was already on the knicks to wipe the floor with the Cavs. Was paying attention to the line all day. Then an hour before the game the line went to -6.5 and the over jumped 2 points. I didn't think the public was doing that.... Vegas and bookies over adjust. I went for the win reverse on knicks and over as I really like that spot and the line movement was nice. 

We overlooked the spot the clipps were because they are such a good team. If this was a more even playing field I think we score Easy on the Clipps and hit on the ML as well. 

Curious to hear what you think OKC tonight against Brooklyn on the road? Early leans are towards Brooklyn.... but haven't researched the game yet.  

Man, just looking at this line it looks like it should be BK at home all the way.

Line looks way deflated, should be more around 9.5, but I feel like this line is to get lots of easy action on OKC.

Brooklyn did come away with that upset in OKC as double-digit dogs, and this could easily be a tough spot for OKC as they've on a roll lately and this could be a set-up for a letdown spot.

Brooklyn tends to play up to their competition so you know they're going to give OKC a run for their money.

I'm going to play BK ATS, ML has some value but I always take the points when I can.

So one play for tonight is BK +5 
 
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Posted: #69
BOL tonight man, like your perspective, looking forward to more 
 
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Posted: #70
Great play BOL I am with you
 
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Posted: #71
After a huge win vs the Clippers last night, you don't think Jazz would be a better upset game?  Maybe not the Utah ML but take the 6 or buy the .5 to make it 6.5?  Thoughts.  First time here and I also like your thought out pick selections.  I used to work for an office in NYC and a guy that used to play would call in with maybe a handful of plays a week.  He ended up at the end of the year or at least even.  He picked and chose when to bang a play.  Gotta have a lot of resistance from throwing in other plays.  Ok thoughts if you could on that Jazz play.  I know Jazz are atrocious, just leaning towards that GS came off a huge game last night and could be a letdown tonight. 
 
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Posted: #72
Quote Originally Posted by SUPERMUSH:

After a huge win vs the Clippers last night, you don't think Jazz would be a better upset game?  Maybe not the Utah ML but take the 6 or buy the .5 to make it 6.5?  Thoughts.  First time here and I also like your thought out pick selections.  I used to work for an office in NYC and a guy that used to play would call in with maybe a handful of plays a week.  He ended up at the end of the year or at least even.  He picked and chose when to bang a play.  Gotta have a lot of resistance from throwing in other plays.  Ok thoughts if you could on that Jazz play.  I know Jazz are atrocious, just leaning towards that GS came off a huge game last night and could be a letdown tonight. 

Thanks for contributing, sir.

Honestly, that's a game that's tough for me in my eyes. Clippers were playing hard yesterday, BUT I doubt they were gassed enough where we're gonna see them quit tonight.

They tend to crush shitty teams, and they fight tooth and nail with the tougher, "better" teams.

Utah could easily cover that number, but a team Utah is pretty heartless a lot of the time. They could easily tank this game and call it quits early, but who knows, if you like the play, I'd say buy-up enough to where the juice isn't a killer and it still has value.

Statistically, that spread is right on the money at 6.5. 
 
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Posted: #73
Quote Originally Posted by noles252:

Great play BOL I am with you

Good luck, sir. I appreciate you sticking with it. 
 
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Posted: #74
Tough, tough quarter. Not the start we wanted to see. 
 
 
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Posted: #75
Very frustrating. Nets don't want to play tonight. 
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