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Whisky's Winners: Long-time Capper, First Time Poster

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Posted: #101
why shocked??
 
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Posted: #102
I am thinking Toronto first half because of the B2b thoughts?
 
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Posted: #103
That over just snuck over.  Good call.  
 
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Posted: #104
Quote Originally Posted by melossinglet:

why shocked??

If you were watching the game you'd understand. David west bricks first free throw at 189. Hits second to put it to 190. Deron Williams takes an incredibly difficult three from the deep wing and splashes the net to make it 193.

All of this was done with 8 seconds or less on the clock. Normally this is a dribble it out situation and both teams go home. Nets felt like fighting to the bitter end for some reason.


 
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Posted: #105
It was Beautiful 
 
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Posted: #106
Quote Originally Posted by noles252:

I am thinking Toronto first half because of the B2b thoughts?

First halfs are tough to call. I think there's a lot of value, however on TOR first half. Portland tends to play timid in first halfs and likes to mount desperate comebacks in second halfs.

You're essentially betting on the stamina of Toronto in this situation. If Toronto feels like playing, they'll probably lead at half, if not, I think they pack it in at some point, but again, that's a fairly obvious inference to make. 

These boys are an upstart, energetic team, though. I really, really don't think they just mail one in with the momentum their having at the moment.

Hopefully I'm correct. 
 
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Posted: #107
oh,okay i didnt actually see the game but assume there would at least be fouling right to the end with the margin being so close...i actually bought the original line of over 188.5 cos in these situations that is where i think books definitely feel the total will pass.(wen they go and move a line against public betting i mean)..every point after that is a bit of a gamble...so i wasnt sweating much...great call by yourself anyway dude!!
 
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Posted: #108
Yes Portland is extremely over value..... but maybe the logic is they are coming off 2 really bad losses in a row and they had 3 days rest since their last game....

BUT.....

Portland is one of those teams that needs to be play all the time..... I'm not too sure that 3 day rest will be beneficial as they might come out flat. Toronto is a pretty young crew and those guys are well conditioned. This was evident on their last west road trip where they abused a bunch of teams even beat OKC in their own house. They play really on the 2nd half of B2B games as well. IMO the line should have been possibly -3 to -4.5 tops to Portland.....

I really would not be surprised f Toronot wins SU. They are a terrible match up for Portland to begin with and they have a ton of size in the paint. Defensively they bang you and grind just like memphis does but they got several explosive guys that can really light it up as well..... and Kyle Lowry is playing out of his mind right now.... will easily go punch for punch with Lillard.
 
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Posted: #109
Quote Originally Posted by melossinglet:

oh,okay i didnt actually see the game but assume there would at least be fouling right to the end with the margin being so close...i actually bought the original line of over 188.5 cos in these situations that is where i think books definitely feel the total will pass.(wen they go and move a line against public betting i mean)..every point after that is a bit of a gamble...so i wasnt sweating much...great call by yourself anyway dude!!

Thank you, sir. I appreciate that as well as your other contributions to the thread. 
 
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Posted: #110
With all that said Historically..... the Raptors have been getting destroyed by Portland at home or in portland LOL.... but I still like toronto... they might change the trends this year....
 
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Posted: #111
Quote Originally Posted by GeneCam27:

Yes Portland is extremely over value..... but maybe the logic is they are coming off 2 really bad losses in a row and they had 3 days rest since their last game....

BUT.....

Portland is one of those teams that needs to be play all the time..... I'm not too sure that 3 day rest will be beneficial as they might come out flat. Toronto is a pretty young crew and those guys are well conditioned. This was evident on their last west road trip where they abused a bunch of teams even beat OKC in their own house. They play really on the 2nd half of B2B games as well. IMO the line should have been possibly -3 to -4.5 tops to Portland.....

I really would not be surprised f Toronot wins SU. They are a terrible match up for Portland to begin with and they have a ton of size in the paint. Defensively they bang you and grind just like memphis does but they got several explosive guys that can really light it up as well..... and Kyle Lowry is playing out of his mind right now.... will easily go punch for punch with Lillard.

You pretty much called the line at what it should be.

Numbers really have this line right at 4.5-5. 

They definitely tacked on those extra points to get raptors money, so we are sort of playing into the books line a bit, but then again, it's possible those extra numbers were tacked on due to the b2b situation alone.
 
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Posted: #112
Quote Originally Posted by GeneCam27:

With all that said Historically..... the Raptors have been getting destroyed by Portland at home or in portland LOL.... but I still like toronto... they might change the trends this year....

Speakings of trends, up until last night, the Raptors hadn't won in Denver in something like 11 years.


 
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Posted: #113
Quote Originally Posted by whiskyonesixty:


First halfs are tough to call. I think there's a lot of value, however on TOR first half. Portland tends to play timid in first halfs and likes to mount desperate comebacks in second halfs.

You're essentially betting on the stamina of Toronto in this situation. If Toronto feels like playing, they'll probably lead at half, if not, I think they pack it in at some point, but again, that's a fairly obvious inference to make. 

These boys are an upstart, energetic team, though. I really, really don't think they just mail one in with the momentum their having at the moment.

Hopefully I'm correct. 

I agree could have 2 nd half opportunity here if all goes well
 
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Posted: #114
Ouch, looks cooked. Not calling it this early, but definitely doesn't look good. Blowout brewing in second half. 
 
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Posted: #115
Wowthey came out completely flat...... gonna have to bit the bullet on this one.... not touching 2nd half..... will cross my fingers and see if they can make a run.
 
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Posted: #116
Quote Originally Posted by GeneCam27:

Wowthey came out completely flat...... gonna have to bit the bullet on this one.... not touching 2nd half..... will cross my fingers and see if they can make a run.

Wise decision. I'll take a 1-1 day, no need for an impulsive chase. 
 
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Posted: #117
wow..... the RAPS are back in this thing..... this team is relentless is relentless..... 3-4 min to go down by 4 I hope they make it super close.....
 
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Posted: #118
whoah,how bout these plucky raptors digging deep???where they get this energy from??....still alive whiskey-man,still alive!!!!
 
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Posted: #119
...didnt play the raptors myself but well done mate
 
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Posted: #120
Quote Originally Posted by melossinglet:

...didnt play the raptors myself but well done mate

Thank you, sir. I'm surprised that worked out. Actually had a real small two-teamer with Rap +6 in it and I'm glad it hit.

Two, very, very close calls but an awesome 2-0 day, plus I hit on Duke +5, but we're only worried about tracked plays in this thread.

Raps +7 wins, BK-INDY Over 190 wins. 2-0

Tracked plays are now 12-4
 
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Posted: #121
Just a heads-up guys, no NBA plays will be posted for tommorow as I'm sure you all know why.

Managed to pick up a +3 on Seattle on one account, and I'm hitting Denver moneyline hard in another account so I'll just be watching the game hoping to score a middle.

A Denver win via field goal would be a perfect result.

Enjoy your Sunday guys, it's back to work Monday. 
 
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Posted: #122
So much for middling the big game.

Anyway, back to roundball.

Scouring lines tonight, a lot of sharp, sharp numbers posted as of yet. I'll wait until tomorrow around noonish to really start pinpointing the plays.


 
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Posted: #123
Great Minds think alike I tried the middle as well and just saw your post lost the middle but hit Seattle and Under first half so a profitable day. Crazy stuff going on with that Portland line. Looks like a Wiz play to me.

 
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Posted: #124
Quote Originally Posted by noles252:

Great Minds think alike I tried the middle as well and just saw your post lost the middle but hit Seattle and Under first half so a profitable day. Crazy stuff going on with that Portland line. Looks like a Wiz play to me.


Yeah unfortuantely I didn't go as hard on Seattle as I should've but no biggie. Luckily I had a small play on the over which saved me a little, but either way I'm more disappointed the game was a complete bore.

Seattle was the play all the way still annoyed I didn't slam it.

Anyway, that's a keen read on that line. 

Wizards are definitely the play there, based on the line movement. debating whether or not I should hit it or not, though. 

Not sure if that's real steam or not.

Since Portland would definitely be the public play, I'm going to guess sharps steamed that line way down because they either wanted a better line on Portland, OR they see really love the Wiz in this spot and hit'em hard. I'm going to gamble it's the latter.

So two plays today, I'll be honest though, I'm hitting the over in the Brooklyn-Philly game harder than Wiz, but I'll make them a tracked play.

Two Plays For Today:

Brooklyn-Philadelphia Over 208

Wizards Pick'em

Good luck.
 
 
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Posted: #125

I have been reading your thread and tailed you on a few games,just wanted to say thank you for your insight on your plays

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