Had the game capped at 102 max for any team. Siding in favor of ATL and around mid 90's for Indy.... (94-97ish)....
I guess I would lean under but just too unpredictable. If come out running like maniacs in the first half that might be enough to make it over. possessions and pace might slow down tremendously in the 4th quarter when they lock down on Defense. Seems likes its just to close to call..... really a gamble on the total IMO. I do like the hawks here as well..... would gladly take the 3 points for the home.
Thanks for your thoughts just pretty amazing to me they jacked the total up that much. Atlanta has gone over alot lately averaging 110 points which is scary is well. Safe bet would probably to stay away.
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Quote Originally Posted by GeneCam27:
Had the game capped at 102 max for any team. Siding in favor of ATL and around mid 90's for Indy.... (94-97ish)....
I guess I would lean under but just too unpredictable. If come out running like maniacs in the first half that might be enough to make it over. possessions and pace might slow down tremendously in the 4th quarter when they lock down on Defense. Seems likes its just to close to call..... really a gamble on the total IMO. I do like the hawks here as well..... would gladly take the 3 points for the home.
Thanks for your thoughts just pretty amazing to me they jacked the total up that much. Atlanta has gone over alot lately averaging 110 points which is scary is well. Safe bet would probably to stay away.
Thanks for your thoughts just pretty amazing to me they jacked the total up that much. Atlanta has gone over alot lately averaging 110 points which is scary is well. Safe bet would probably to stay away.
No problem
Yep, definitely a take the over or don't play it. I'm going to do the latter and just stick with Hawks +3
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Quote Originally Posted by noles252:
Thanks for your thoughts just pretty amazing to me they jacked the total up that much. Atlanta has gone over alot lately averaging 110 points which is scary is well. Safe bet would probably to stay away.
No problem
Yep, definitely a take the over or don't play it. I'm going to do the latter and just stick with Hawks +3
i rarely disagree with you whisky,loved hawks strait away wen i seen them at +3,hopefully another case of pacers winding down for the all-star break and atlanta coming out hungrier at home where,as you alluded to,they give indiana all kinds of fits.......no guarantees and of course pacers are bona-fide 100% legit but in this situation value is with the dog....lets roll
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i rarely disagree with you whisky,loved hawks strait away wen i seen them at +3,hopefully another case of pacers winding down for the all-star break and atlanta coming out hungrier at home where,as you alluded to,they give indiana all kinds of fits.......no guarantees and of course pacers are bona-fide 100% legit but in this situation value is with the dog....lets roll
So, have you talked yourself into an under play on the Bulls/Suns game yet or what?
At this point I wish I'd made another play. 0-1 by one point, lovely.
Tracked plays 14-5. ATL +3 loses. Missed out on early value at 4.5 and my numbers had this game capped at exactly 4 in favor of Indy but I didn't think we needed it. Paul Millsap's missed free throw was the nail in the coffin.
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Quote Originally Posted by TRAIN69:
So, have you talked yourself into an under play on the Bulls/Suns game yet or what?
At this point I wish I'd made another play. 0-1 by one point, lovely.
Tracked plays 14-5. ATL +3 loses. Missed out on early value at 4.5 and my numbers had this game capped at exactly 4 in favor of Indy but I didn't think we needed it. Paul Millsap's missed free throw was the nail in the coffin.
Took Bobcats +11. Numbers indicate slight deflation on spread. Should be 9.5-10, and it was, but late public money coming in on that 11 might get screwed over by that inflation.
Best of luck to you, if you decide to play. I know it's silly to chase, but this was another play I had in my back pocket, and frankly, I want something to do to end the night.
Best of luck, remember, earlier play was 0-1, so congrats to those who faded.
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I always have a contingency game in place.
***Play at your own risk***
Took Bobcats +11. Numbers indicate slight deflation on spread. Should be 9.5-10, and it was, but late public money coming in on that 11 might get screwed over by that inflation.
Best of luck to you, if you decide to play. I know it's silly to chase, but this was another play I had in my back pocket, and frankly, I want something to do to end the night.
Best of luck, remember, earlier play was 0-1, so congrats to those who faded.
Didn't think I would need it. Those numbers aren't a guarantee of anything. We were literally one made freethrow from a push.
garbage happens. It's called gambling for a reason.
Last night my numbers had Trailblazers winning by 5 but I disregarded it and took Washington laying 1-point and Washington ML.
Very rarely are those numbers exactly precise, but this time they were.
ATL tends to give Indy fits and in a b2b, I felt they could very easily win this one straight up.
So you took a gamble on a 3 point dog that you capped losing by 4????That's not called gambling..I have been capping games for over 25 years and I NEVER gambled like that.GL
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Quote Originally Posted by whiskyonesixty:
Didn't think I would need it. Those numbers aren't a guarantee of anything. We were literally one made freethrow from a push.
garbage happens. It's called gambling for a reason.
Last night my numbers had Trailblazers winning by 5 but I disregarded it and took Washington laying 1-point and Washington ML.
Very rarely are those numbers exactly precise, but this time they were.
ATL tends to give Indy fits and in a b2b, I felt they could very easily win this one straight up.
So you took a gamble on a 3 point dog that you capped losing by 4????That's not called gambling..I have been capping games for over 25 years and I NEVER gambled like that.GL
So you took a gamble on a 3 point dog that you capped losing by 4????That's not called gambling..I have been capping games for over 25 years and I NEVER gambled like that.GL
I'm not going to repeat myself, but if you've been gambling for 25 years, you'd know that projections aren't guarantees of anything.
If I had a magic ball that told me the line would be steamed back up to 3.5, I would've gladly taken that 3 and bought the hook to make it 4.
Early morning major swing on the line steamed it from 4.5 to 3, and I took the 3 because I was worried more sharp steam would push it even lower to 2.5, which is was at during one point.
Hawks + any number, and money line had a lot of value. It lost.
The bet literally lost because of a missed free throw. I'll take that number again in situations like that every time, due to reasons I already explained to you.
Winning bets look genius in retrospect, and losing bets look bad in retrospect. Thanks for your contribution to the thread.
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Quote Originally Posted by tinoker55:
So you took a gamble on a 3 point dog that you capped losing by 4????That's not called gambling..I have been capping games for over 25 years and I NEVER gambled like that.GL
I'm not going to repeat myself, but if you've been gambling for 25 years, you'd know that projections aren't guarantees of anything.
If I had a magic ball that told me the line would be steamed back up to 3.5, I would've gladly taken that 3 and bought the hook to make it 4.
Early morning major swing on the line steamed it from 4.5 to 3, and I took the 3 because I was worried more sharp steam would push it even lower to 2.5, which is was at during one point.
Hawks + any number, and money line had a lot of value. It lost.
The bet literally lost because of a missed free throw. I'll take that number again in situations like that every time, due to reasons I already explained to you.
Winning bets look genius in retrospect, and losing bets look bad in retrospect. Thanks for your contribution to the thread.
Not making plays as of yet, just wanted to point some things out.
HUGE discrepancy in Wiz game. Had a line of San Antonio -6.5 in my head before I even checked the numbers, and I was close.
Line should be 5.5 or 6 favoring San Antonio. They're a one point road dog.
Wrong team is favored statistically, but this might be classic dummy line to get even action, but if I had to guess, public play will be San Antonio.
Let's see where the steam moves on that one.
Portland game is another game where huge deflation is present. Portland should be about a 6-7 point fav, only a 2 point fave here.
Memphis should really be a 1.5 fav on paper, yet they're laying -4. Lot's of whacky numbers on these early lines (per Bookmaker FYI).
Toronto should be favored by 4 but has opened as a pick'em.
Very, very interesting lines. Where the money goes is where we determine which sides have value.
I don't think these are trick lines at all, I think they're simply smart line shades by linesmakers so they can ensure even action. So let's be careful about totally overthinking these, but if there's a huge disparity or RLM, those are the games where I will certainly pinpoint.
Good night forreal this time.
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Not making plays as of yet, just wanted to point some things out.
HUGE discrepancy in Wiz game. Had a line of San Antonio -6.5 in my head before I even checked the numbers, and I was close.
Line should be 5.5 or 6 favoring San Antonio. They're a one point road dog.
Wrong team is favored statistically, but this might be classic dummy line to get even action, but if I had to guess, public play will be San Antonio.
Let's see where the steam moves on that one.
Portland game is another game where huge deflation is present. Portland should be about a 6-7 point fav, only a 2 point fave here.
Memphis should really be a 1.5 fav on paper, yet they're laying -4. Lot's of whacky numbers on these early lines (per Bookmaker FYI).
Toronto should be favored by 4 but has opened as a pick'em.
Very, very interesting lines. Where the money goes is where we determine which sides have value.
I don't think these are trick lines at all, I think they're simply smart line shades by linesmakers so they can ensure even action. So let's be careful about totally overthinking these, but if there's a huge disparity or RLM, those are the games where I will certainly pinpoint.
First gam that jumped..... Vegas is putting up a spread based on the last 5 or so games for POR..... I already capped the gmae.... POR shooting at 41% over the last 5 games.... NYK ghave been home since Jan 17th only travel to MIL. NYK have been playing absolute chumps at home where they had that 4 game winning streak.
L5 games NYK have played @ home
LAKERS, BOSTON, CLEVELAND these were all @ home.... these are pathetic teams... that we can agree are actually even WORSE than the knicks. Then NYK played Miami on Saturday night where miami cruised without putting any effort into the game. Now NYK played Milwaukee probably the worst freakin team in the league on the road.... I think they are actually shiittier at home than they are on the road and NYK managed to lose that game.
Spread is -1.5 for Portland right now..... i can see where they got it based on Portlands last 5......
Minny @ home.... @ Golden state in a brutal back to back where there were just super flat..... beyong belief shot 33-34% Then they played Memphis whos super hott and just a bruiser team Then they played Toronto and won that game.... Toronto is arguably the hottest team in the league now with a top 5 defense Finally they started their east coast trip Against The Wiz.... another hot team who is much better than they appear
So to me it appears Vegas is initially under valueing Portland big time here..... I think Portland should be a 4.5 to possibly even 7+ point favorite on the road to the knicks.
Yes the knicsk are somewhat hot. Portland is rested. Only played 3 games in 5 days..... 2nd game on this east coast trip last game in Washington so travel is not a big deal here. They are already acclimated to the east coast time zone. Before the Toronto game they had 3 days rest. Knicks are at home pretty no travel but like i said they played a bunch of scrubs AND STILL MANAGED to lose to arguably the worst team in the league.
talent wise I dont see how this game will be that close. Roster for Roster this is an insane mismatch as Mo Williams a legit starter is the back up PG whos twice as good as Felton. Knicks play worse Defense at home than they do on the road to begin with. I dont get it...... I got 4U on Portland already...... i gotta expect this line will grow.... local has them at 1.5 virtually a pick em at this point.
I have Portland scoring 103+++++ knicks around a 100 if everything works out perfectly....... Knicks can't afford a shoot out with as they will out score them..... I think Portland is a bit overated..... but the knicks are BAAAADDD.
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Whisky......... Portland dude......
First gam that jumped..... Vegas is putting up a spread based on the last 5 or so games for POR..... I already capped the gmae.... POR shooting at 41% over the last 5 games.... NYK ghave been home since Jan 17th only travel to MIL. NYK have been playing absolute chumps at home where they had that 4 game winning streak.
L5 games NYK have played @ home
LAKERS, BOSTON, CLEVELAND these were all @ home.... these are pathetic teams... that we can agree are actually even WORSE than the knicks. Then NYK played Miami on Saturday night where miami cruised without putting any effort into the game. Now NYK played Milwaukee probably the worst freakin team in the league on the road.... I think they are actually shiittier at home than they are on the road and NYK managed to lose that game.
Spread is -1.5 for Portland right now..... i can see where they got it based on Portlands last 5......
Minny @ home.... @ Golden state in a brutal back to back where there were just super flat..... beyong belief shot 33-34% Then they played Memphis whos super hott and just a bruiser team Then they played Toronto and won that game.... Toronto is arguably the hottest team in the league now with a top 5 defense Finally they started their east coast trip Against The Wiz.... another hot team who is much better than they appear
So to me it appears Vegas is initially under valueing Portland big time here..... I think Portland should be a 4.5 to possibly even 7+ point favorite on the road to the knicks.
Yes the knicsk are somewhat hot. Portland is rested. Only played 3 games in 5 days..... 2nd game on this east coast trip last game in Washington so travel is not a big deal here. They are already acclimated to the east coast time zone. Before the Toronto game they had 3 days rest. Knicks are at home pretty no travel but like i said they played a bunch of scrubs AND STILL MANAGED to lose to arguably the worst team in the league.
talent wise I dont see how this game will be that close. Roster for Roster this is an insane mismatch as Mo Williams a legit starter is the back up PG whos twice as good as Felton. Knicks play worse Defense at home than they do on the road to begin with. I dont get it...... I got 4U on Portland already...... i gotta expect this line will grow.... local has them at 1.5 virtually a pick em at this point.
I have Portland scoring 103+++++ knicks around a 100 if everything works out perfectly....... Knicks can't afford a shoot out with as they will out score them..... I think Portland is a bit overated..... but the knicks are BAAAADDD.
When I say everything goes perfectly, Knicks have to be on their game big time,,,,
I think Portland will probably score over 103 here. I'm like the over a lot too. I think knicks will score points just don't think they can stop portland. Portland doesn't mind a shootout. They will look at this game is a jump start to get their rhythm going again.
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When I say everything goes perfectly, Knicks have to be on their game big time,,,,
I think Portland will probably score over 103 here. I'm like the over a lot too. I think knicks will score points just don't think they can stop portland. Portland doesn't mind a shootout. They will look at this game is a jump start to get their rhythm going again.
Yes You're right on Wiz Spurs line. At the same time Wiz are a much more solid team and they actually might have mad that line on present expectation of them. They are a talented roster, young and healthy with a killer back court and some legit half court defense and against a bumbling spurs team. Yes spurs are still good but they are slipping right now and Wiz are surging........ I really just dont see this same scenario with the blazers and Knicks. Curious to see what you think.
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Just read your post before mine......
Yes You're right on Wiz Spurs line. At the same time Wiz are a much more solid team and they actually might have mad that line on present expectation of them. They are a talented roster, young and healthy with a killer back court and some legit half court defense and against a bumbling spurs team. Yes spurs are still good but they are slipping right now and Wiz are surging........ I really just dont see this same scenario with the blazers and Knicks. Curious to see what you think.
Yes You're right on Wiz Spurs line. At the same time Wiz are a much more solid team and they actually might have mad that line on present expectation of them. They are a talented roster, young and healthy with a killer back court and some legit half court defense and against a bumbling spurs team. Yes spurs are still good but they are slipping right now and Wiz are surging........ I really just dont see this same scenario with the blazers and Knicks. Curious to see what you think.
Hey Cam, I lied.
Still awake but I'll legit be catching z's in a bit.
Read all of your recent posts.
Definitely feel you, tomorrow seems primed for favorites to roll. I'm just worried about those lines being too easy. They put that line out knowing they're going to get a ton of Portland action, but I'm not sure why.
POrtland is the play, but I just wanna see where the steam goes.
Best of luck to you sir . I'm sure we'll discuss this further pending any line moves because we know the sharps are going to see this is a real, real soft line
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Quote Originally Posted by GeneCam27:
Just read your post before mine......
Yes You're right on Wiz Spurs line. At the same time Wiz are a much more solid team and they actually might have mad that line on present expectation of them. They are a talented roster, young and healthy with a killer back court and some legit half court defense and against a bumbling spurs team. Yes spurs are still good but they are slipping right now and Wiz are surging........ I really just dont see this same scenario with the blazers and Knicks. Curious to see what you think.
Hey Cam, I lied.
Still awake but I'll legit be catching z's in a bit.
Read all of your recent posts.
Definitely feel you, tomorrow seems primed for favorites to roll. I'm just worried about those lines being too easy. They put that line out knowing they're going to get a ton of Portland action, but I'm not sure why.
POrtland is the play, but I just wanna see where the steam goes.
Best of luck to you sir . I'm sure we'll discuss this further pending any line moves because we know the sharps are going to see this is a real, real soft line
Scratch that-- found a play I really like given the situation.
Clippers should be a 5-point favorite and they're only laying 1.5. Line definitely wants easy money on Miami.
One play for today is Clippers -1 (I bought the hook).
Clippers can blow them out of the water if they have a hot shooting night. Miami is on the road to a team they already beat; I find it questionable that we can anticipate a full effort from a notoriously lackadaisical team like the Heat.
Good luck.
I have a lot of other plays, but that is my strongest one. Again, best of luck.
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Scratch that-- found a play I really like given the situation.
Clippers should be a 5-point favorite and they're only laying 1.5. Line definitely wants easy money on Miami.
One play for today is Clippers -1 (I bought the hook).
Clippers can blow them out of the water if they have a hot shooting night. Miami is on the road to a team they already beat; I find it questionable that we can anticipate a full effort from a notoriously lackadaisical team like the Heat.
Good luck.
I have a lot of other plays, but that is my strongest one. Again, best of luck.
Scratch that-- found a play I really like given the situation.
Clippers should be a 5-point favorite and they're only laying 1.5. Line definitely wants easy money on Miami.
One play for today is Clippers -1 (I bought the hook).
Clippers can blow them out of the water if they have a hot shooting night. Miami is on the road to a team they already beat; I find it questionable that we can anticipate a full effort from a notoriously lackadaisical team like the Heat.
Good luck.
I have a lot of other plays, but that is my strongest one. Again, best of luck.
My thoughts exactly ! Watching just about every line ATM, I believe this one is screaming LAC. I think tonight could be a very profitable night, many interesting games... Leaning Portland -2 for now looking up and following the other lines...
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Quote Originally Posted by whiskyonesixty:
Scratch that-- found a play I really like given the situation.
Clippers should be a 5-point favorite and they're only laying 1.5. Line definitely wants easy money on Miami.
One play for today is Clippers -1 (I bought the hook).
Clippers can blow them out of the water if they have a hot shooting night. Miami is on the road to a team they already beat; I find it questionable that we can anticipate a full effort from a notoriously lackadaisical team like the Heat.
Good luck.
I have a lot of other plays, but that is my strongest one. Again, best of luck.
My thoughts exactly ! Watching just about every line ATM, I believe this one is screaming LAC. I think tonight could be a very profitable night, many interesting games... Leaning Portland -2 for now looking up and following the other lines...
I am glad you said clippers was the play as this was the one play I had hoped to hear from you.
Just a thought, line on Portland moved from -3.5 last night to -2 currently. I was also thinking of taking NY +3.5 last night. Last time Portland beat NY by 11 points at home, if i remember correctly, and Portland is the better team by far....but, there comes a time around a middle of the season when a good team doesn't care that much for every game, which was shown by Portland on several occasions in the past few weeks. NY will be alert in this one, Melo is playing great and I feel they will want to win it at home. For that reason I don't doubt the current line. In my mind, not a good game to be on as anything can happen.
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I am glad you said clippers was the play as this was the one play I had hoped to hear from you.
Just a thought, line on Portland moved from -3.5 last night to -2 currently. I was also thinking of taking NY +3.5 last night. Last time Portland beat NY by 11 points at home, if i remember correctly, and Portland is the better team by far....but, there comes a time around a middle of the season when a good team doesn't care that much for every game, which was shown by Portland on several occasions in the past few weeks. NY will be alert in this one, Melo is playing great and I feel they will want to win it at home. For that reason I don't doubt the current line. In my mind, not a good game to be on as anything can happen.
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You capped the Pacers to win by 4 and you take the Hawks +3,,,
! Watching just about every line ATM, I believe this one is screaming LAC.
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