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Win Percentage Formula

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Posted: #76
Great job here Aussie and Extremist 
 
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Posted: #77
for the record if you take the Under on the lowest game for the day for the season the record is:

SU:63-51 (2.18, 55.3%)
ATS:60-51-3 (-0.36, 54.1%)  avg line: -2.5
O/U:57-56-1 (1.22, 50.4%)  avg total: 197.4

Min(n:total@n:date and season=2016)[date and season=2016] = total and H 

for taking the over on highest total
SU:71-45 (4.02, 61.2%)
ATS:57-58-1 (1.34, 49.6%)  avg line: -2.7
O/U:63-51-2 (2.31, 55.3%)  avg total: 222.4
Max(n:total@n:date and season=2016)[date and season=2016] = total and H 

this doesn't account for how many games are being played that day though

 
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Posted: #78
Quote Originally Posted by The_Extremist:

for the record if you take the Under on the lowest game for the day for the season the record is:

SU:63-51 (2.18, 55.3%)
ATS:60-51-3 (-0.36, 54.1%)  avg line: -2.5
O/U:57-56-1 (1.22, 50.4%)  avg total: 197.4

Min(n:total@n:date and season=2016)[date and season=2016] = total and H 

for taking the over on highest total
SU:71-45 (4.02, 61.2%)
ATS:57-58-1 (1.34, 49.6%)  avg line: -2.7
O/U:63-51-2 (2.31, 55.3%)  avg total: 222.4
Max(n:total@n:date and season=2016)[date and season=2016] = total and H 

this doesn't account for how many games are being played that day though


Awesome work again Extremist. Thank you for the clafication. Although sometimes I find the lines on sportsdatabase/killersports not correct all the time. Say for instance, Spurs vs Grizzlies the other week. SB and KS have that line as Spurs +1 but the actual line closed at +3 for that game. But thanks again, it just shows yoi that it isn't a profitable long term system. Overs this year have been ok but unders not..
 
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Posted: #79
Gotta ask you, when you say that you have certain trends for pace and possessions, how do you query that? I understand FGA but not efficiency?
 
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Posted: #80
this give you Pace (possession)

(tA(FGA)+.44*tA(FTA)+tA(TO)-tA(ORB)) @ team and season=2016 

Offensive Efficiency

  (100*(tA(points)/(tA(FGA)+.44*tA(FTA)+tA(TO)-tA(ORB)))) @ team and season=2016

Defensive Efficiency

(100*(otA(points)/(otA(FGA)+.44*otA(FTA)+otA(TO)-otA(ORB)))) @ team and season=2016


I can email you the formula for the total if you want but it's super long and you can only run it 1 day at a time otherwise it will timeout. It's hard to pin down how recent you want to look at the team. L3 ? L5? L10? away L3 vs home L3? overall Away vs overall Home? that's the tricky part. 

Here are a few formulas I have come up with that are fun to play around. this one compares the teams scoring and compared to league average and spits out the total for the given date. Based on league average 106.9 Home scoring vs 103.8 away scoring avg

((tA(points@H)/106.9)*( otA(o:points@A)/106.9))*106.9+((tA(o:points@H)/103.8)* (otA(points@A)/103.8))*103.8 and team and o:team and H and date=20170216

this one I came up with is based on deviation factor based on league average of 210.7 game total. x1.5 is a figure that simplifies the deviation. Its an old method that used to have to add a certain # of points to the total but by multiplying by 1.5 it simplified the equation. If you google deviation factor for nba it will come up. 

if you choose your spots you can use them and do pretty well. but the one with the pace and efficiency is my best 1 I would say. 
 
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Posted: #81

210.7+((210.7-((tA(points@H)+otA(o:points@A)+tA(o:points@H)+ otA(points@A))/2))*1.5) and H and team and o:team and total and date=20170208

pretty close right. projected by 2 points of the actual totals today


 
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Posted: #82
What is the query for league average home scoring and away scoring average? Thanks 
 
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Posted: #83
Quote Originally Posted by chignix:

What is the query for league average home scoring and away scoring average? Thanks 

tA(points@A)+tA(o:points@A),tA(points@H)+tA(o:points@H)@season=2016
 
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Posted: #84
also put    

team and 

after @ and it'll give you the the totals for each team 
210.98 is league average
103.95 and 107.04
 
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Posted: #85
The_Extremist: you are my SDQL guru  Thank you.
 
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Posted: #86
What's the query for winning % of overs in the second half if score difference between the two teams at half is 8 points or less and the closing over/under is 10 points or more than the game over/under at half? Thanks. 
 
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Posted: #87
Quote Originally Posted by SBT:

What's the query for winning % of overs in the second half if score difference between the two teams at half is 8 points or less and the closing over/under is 10 points or more than the game over/under at half? Thanks. 

SDQL doesn't keep track of 1st and 2nd Half over/under. best I can do is devide the total by half and use that as the total?
 
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Posted: #88
Or winning % of NHL teams playing their second game after losing the first home game after a road trip of 4 or more games? Thanks in advance!
 
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Posted: #89
Quote Originally Posted by The_Extremist:


SDQL doesn't keep track of 1st and 2nd Half over/under. best I can do is devide the total by half and use that as the total?

Does it keep track of what the full game O/U would be at half?
 
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Posted: #90
 
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Posted: #91
how is this looking?

What are the plays for today?
 
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Posted: #92
Oz...starting a goldmine thread like this you are the man. 

To the Over/Under trend...

"Wise man once said, take the highest total and go over, take the lowest total and go under"

This is one of the oldest angles around. I never forgot it the first time I heard it.

It's natural for the betting public to automatically do the exact opposite when they see the line
 
 
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Posted: #93
Quote Originally Posted by The_Extremist:

also put    

team and 

after @ and it'll give you the the totals for each team 
210.98 is league average
103.95 and 107.04

Can you tell me how to look at overall home/away team total average?  Thanks in advance.
 
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Posted: #94
Quote Originally Posted by SBT:


Does it keep track of what the full game O/U would be at half?

Anyone know the query or is this not possible?
 
 
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Posted: #95
This may have been discussed already but in regards to betting the highest total over and lowest total under, what if 
A) there are multiple games at the same exact line or
B) significant line movement 

Thanks fellas 
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