Good info.. so in the first system, it would always be the favored team as the play, or else no play?
Definitely not, check out the article which was posted before. There are times to take the underdogs as well if the formula has a difference of -10 or higher. So lets take for example the Celtics the other day vs Portland. Blazers ended up laying -3 to the Celtics. At the time, Boston were 635% and Blazers 434%. So if we work out the formula..
434 - 635 (Portland were the favs of -3 so always put the fav's first when working out the calculation) = - 201
We then divide -201 by 20 = -10.05
Then we subtract the -3 line from the -10.05 which gives us -13.05.
once the calculation has been done, and the answer is 10 or higher, take the underdog of fav. So Celtics would be the play.
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Quote Originally Posted by PNBLL:
Thanks for that query
Good info.. so in the first system, it would always be the favored team as the play, or else no play?
Definitely not, check out the article which was posted before. There are times to take the underdogs as well if the formula has a difference of -10 or higher. So lets take for example the Celtics the other day vs Portland. Blazers ended up laying -3 to the Celtics. At the time, Boston were 635% and Blazers 434%. So if we work out the formula..
434 - 635 (Portland were the favs of -3 so always put the fav's first when working out the calculation) = - 201
We then divide -201 by 20 = -10.05
Then we subtract the -3 line from the -10.05 which gives us -13.05.
once the calculation has been done, and the answer is 10 or higher, take the underdog of fav. So Celtics would be the play.
No worries.. This dates back to 1995 as well. All the above I ran queries from sportsdatabase.com just so everyone knows the source I am using for my stats.
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Quote Originally Posted by Krisamons:
TY
No worries.. This dates back to 1995 as well. All the above I ran queries from sportsdatabase.com just so everyone knows the source I am using for my stats.
The totals system which basically is "play over on highest and under on lowest" for the day but I cannot back test that and have reliable data to confirm if its profitable or not. I am also unsure when that system was created were they using the opening lines or closing lines? Today is a massive card with totals very close to each other so I wouldn't play the totals. That was just something someone else posted the other day, I am looking more into the spreads and winning percentages.
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The totals system which basically is "play over on highest and under on lowest" for the day but I cannot back test that and have reliable data to confirm if its profitable or not. I am also unsure when that system was created were they using the opening lines or closing lines? Today is a massive card with totals very close to each other so I wouldn't play the totals. That was just something someone else posted the other day, I am looking more into the spreads and winning percentages.
I think you haven't done it properly. Make sure you use win percentages, divide by 20 and then minus the spread. Also, spreads of 10 or more are automatic no plays.
As far as I know, when i looked there were no plays today. This is very old system which I am looking into an re-working it with a few extra changes to it. The old formula game 3 points to every home team which I don't believe is entirely true as some of the teams play poor at home.
I think you haven't done it properly. Make sure you use win percentages, divide by 20 and then minus the spread. Also, spreads of 10 or more are automatic no plays.
As far as I know, when i looked there were no plays today. This is very old system which I am looking into an re-working it with a few extra changes to it. The old formula game 3 points to every home team which I don't believe is entirely true as some of the teams play poor at home.
I think you haven't done it properly. Make sure you use win percentages, divide by 20 and then minus the spread. Also, spreads of 10 or more are automatic no plays.
As far as I know, when i looked there were no plays today. This is very old system which I am looking into an re-working it with a few extra changes to it. The old formula game 3 points to every home team which I don't believe is entirely true as some of the teams play poor at home.
Gotcha
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Quote Originally Posted by AussieDownUnder:
I think you haven't done it properly. Make sure you use win percentages, divide by 20 and then minus the spread. Also, spreads of 10 or more are automatic no plays.
As far as I know, when i looked there were no plays today. This is very old system which I am looking into an re-working it with a few extra changes to it. The old formula game 3 points to every home team which I don't believe is entirely true as some of the teams play poor at home.
Definitely not, check out the article which was posted before. There are times to take the underdogs as well if the formula has a difference of -10 or higher. So lets take for example the Celtics the other day vs Portland. Blazers ended up laying -3 to the Celtics. At the time, Boston were 635% and Blazers 434%. So if we work out the formula..
434 - 635 (Portland were the favs of -3 so always put the fav's first when working out the calculation) = - 201
We then divide -201 by 20 = -10.05
Then we subtract the -3 line from the -10.05 which gives us -13.05.
once the calculation has been done, and the answer is 10 or higher, take the underdog of fav. So Celtics would be the play.
Got it, based on the winning %, Boston should have been favored by 10, and since they were on the road, 7, but the line was Portland laying 3, so that difference was greater than 10, makes sense.. seems like the plays are far and few in between when the lines are that far off? which in and of itself isn't a bad thing
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Quote Originally Posted by AussieDownUnder:
Definitely not, check out the article which was posted before. There are times to take the underdogs as well if the formula has a difference of -10 or higher. So lets take for example the Celtics the other day vs Portland. Blazers ended up laying -3 to the Celtics. At the time, Boston were 635% and Blazers 434%. So if we work out the formula..
434 - 635 (Portland were the favs of -3 so always put the fav's first when working out the calculation) = - 201
We then divide -201 by 20 = -10.05
Then we subtract the -3 line from the -10.05 which gives us -13.05.
once the calculation has been done, and the answer is 10 or higher, take the underdog of fav. So Celtics would be the play.
Got it, based on the winning %, Boston should have been favored by 10, and since they were on the road, 7, but the line was Portland laying 3, so that difference was greater than 10, makes sense.. seems like the plays are far and few in between when the lines are that far off? which in and of itself isn't a bad thing
Got it, based on the winning %, Boston should have been favored by 10, and since they were on the road, 7, but the line was Portland laying 3, so that difference was greater than 10, makes sense.. seems like the plays are far and few in between when the lines are that far off? which in and of itself isn't a bad thing
Definitely. Plays aren't everyday but truly believe that this can relate back to what I posted before about fav's covering 72% of the time they win. As the formula states, take out any spreads which are 10 or higher, so when i ran a query, favs that win the game with a spread 9.5 or lower, cover 77.9% of the time. Thats road or home fav.
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Quote Originally Posted by PNBLL:
Got it, based on the winning %, Boston should have been favored by 10, and since they were on the road, 7, but the line was Portland laying 3, so that difference was greater than 10, makes sense.. seems like the plays are far and few in between when the lines are that far off? which in and of itself isn't a bad thing
Definitely. Plays aren't everyday but truly believe that this can relate back to what I posted before about fav's covering 72% of the time they win. As the formula states, take out any spreads which are 10 or higher, so when i ran a query, favs that win the game with a spread 9.5 or lower, cover 77.9% of the time. Thats road or home fav.
Aussie, take a look at the Lakers/Suns game.. based on the second part of that system; Lakers going from negative to positive, so wouldn't Lakers be a play?
Lakers .333, Suns .304.. works out to Lakers being favored by ~1.5
From Lakers' perspective, they're favored by 4.5 (+4.5) at home or underdogs by 1.5 on the road (-1.5)
The Suns are favored by 4 at home, so Lakers go from -1.5 to +2.5?
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Aussie, take a look at the Lakers/Suns game.. based on the second part of that system; Lakers going from negative to positive, so wouldn't Lakers be a play?
Lakers .333, Suns .304.. works out to Lakers being favored by ~1.5
From Lakers' perspective, they're favored by 4.5 (+4.5) at home or underdogs by 1.5 on the road (-1.5)
The Suns are favored by 4 at home, so Lakers go from -1.5 to +2.5?
Aussie, take a look at the Lakers/Suns game.. based on the second part of that system; Lakers going from negative to positive, so wouldn't Lakers be a play?
Lakers .333, Suns .304.. works out to Lakers being favored by ~1.5
From Lakers' perspective, they're favored by 4.5 (+4.5) at home or underdogs by 1.5 on the road (-1.5)
The Suns are favored by 4 at home, so Lakers go from -1.5 to +2.5?
Nah PN, they don't qualify as they are on a B2B.
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Quote Originally Posted by PNBLL:
Aussie, take a look at the Lakers/Suns game.. based on the second part of that system; Lakers going from negative to positive, so wouldn't Lakers be a play?
Lakers .333, Suns .304.. works out to Lakers being favored by ~1.5
From Lakers' perspective, they're favored by 4.5 (+4.5) at home or underdogs by 1.5 on the road (-1.5)
The Suns are favored by 4 at home, so Lakers go from -1.5 to +2.5?
Thanks Aussie for the query, maybe you know good/easy lessons for sdql?
Ask any questions you want mate, more than happy to help you learn it as long as you have patience. A lot of people are secretive about it but I think, the more the merrier and it can maybe help you beat the books
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Quote Originally Posted by chignix:
Thanks Aussie for the query, maybe you know good/easy lessons for sdql?
Ask any questions you want mate, more than happy to help you learn it as long as you have patience. A lot of people are secretive about it but I think, the more the merrier and it can maybe help you beat the books
Hey Aussie you know I'm big on using SDQL to run all queries. Try to tweak this system using HWP (home winning percentage) vs AWP (away winning percentage). As you stated some teams play day and night different when at home or on road. Playing on home favorite that has 60%> at home vs away team with 50%< on road gives you way better results. I use it to parlay ML. Theres a huge post worth 17 pages that I read on SBR a week ago that the guys back in 2009-2010 were using betting on home favorite of -7< (i.e -7 to -10) but on the ML and parlaying them. with great success. Of course there's capping involved and it's not just betting them blindly. You might want to incorporate that into your system
Below gives your 85% winner SU picks (for those who don't do sdql) that home favorite that has won previous game and has a home record of greater that 60% vs away team record less than 40% and the line is -6.5 of less (i.e -7.-8,-9)
HF and p:W and
HWP>60 and o:AWP<40 and line<=-6.5
and season=2016
the below gives you 80% winner SU but has more plays in the season (home favorite -6 or less with winning percentage of 55% or greater at home vs away team with winning percentage of less than 50%)
HF and HWP>55 and o:AWP<50 and line<=-6.5 and
season=2016
home that gives some help to tweak your work. I'm not tight with my stuff bro. If you want to collaborate shoot me a message on here.
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Hey Aussie you know I'm big on using SDQL to run all queries. Try to tweak this system using HWP (home winning percentage) vs AWP (away winning percentage). As you stated some teams play day and night different when at home or on road. Playing on home favorite that has 60%> at home vs away team with 50%< on road gives you way better results. I use it to parlay ML. Theres a huge post worth 17 pages that I read on SBR a week ago that the guys back in 2009-2010 were using betting on home favorite of -7< (i.e -7 to -10) but on the ML and parlaying them. with great success. Of course there's capping involved and it's not just betting them blindly. You might want to incorporate that into your system
Below gives your 85% winner SU picks (for those who don't do sdql) that home favorite that has won previous game and has a home record of greater that 60% vs away team record less than 40% and the line is -6.5 of less (i.e -7.-8,-9)
HF and p:W and
HWP>60 and o:AWP<40 and line<=-6.5
and season=2016
the below gives you 80% winner SU but has more plays in the season (home favorite -6 or less with winning percentage of 55% or greater at home vs away team with winning percentage of less than 50%)
HF and HWP>55 and o:AWP<50 and line<=-6.5 and
season=2016
home that gives some help to tweak your work. I'm not tight with my stuff bro. If you want to collaborate shoot me a message on here.
And once again , I wake up , do no capping what so ever and we went 2-0 again on the day ... with Detroit and Dallas being the lowest Under 200.5 and the Lakers and Suns going over 227. Were now 12-0 since this man opened his mouth . Give him a round of applause
0
And once again , I wake up , do no capping what so ever and we went 2-0 again on the day ... with Detroit and Dallas being the lowest Under 200.5 and the Lakers and Suns going over 227. Were now 12-0 since this man opened his mouth . Give him a round of applause
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