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WOW, total of 244 for Golden St. and Phoenix tomorrow?

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Legend
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Posted: #76
Glad I got it at 245 with this downward movement
 
Rookie
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Posted: #77
OVER! Stop overthinking it boys. This one's a no-brainer, and the fact that its in Oakland is the key.
 
Legend
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Posted: #78
Jamieace -- how can it be a no brainer when of the three times they've played so far this year, only one of the totals went over? What about Lopez's insertion into the starting line-up  and the fact that they are at 12 overs and 17 unders since that date?

I think everyone automatically assumes this will be a 130-120 type of game when the two of the three prior games they played finished at 112-103 and 123-101. That is a mistake, IMO.

The funny thing is that the total shots taken were 179 (under), 172 (over), and 169 (under). Basically if either team shoots under 50%, this thing should go under comfortably.


 
Legend
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Posted: #79
Also, Golden State has only shot 50% or above in 3 of their last ten games.

Phoenix's focus on defense of all things is what should keep this thing from going under, and the late line movement downward makes me think that will be the case.
 
Prospect
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Posted: #80

Fuck the Public.... Don't make this into Brain Surgery Fellas...Granted these 2 teams can shoot the lights out and the total could very well be 260 or so...BUT...245 is a WHOLE LOTTA PTS..... This line has been moving all around all day long... now its at its lowest point I beleive (243.5)...I missed it at 245.5 and locked in at 244.5... 

THIS GAME IS UNDER....ALL... DAY... LONG!!!

BOOK IT!!! 

 
Prospect
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Posted: #81
Kapono,...you keep saying they have met 3 times this year....
and it's 1-2  ( O/U) ....


and just where were those 2 Under games played ?
where was the Over game played ?

last year.....they met 4 times......and it was 2-2 ( O/U) as well.....both games in PHO went  under,...the games @ GSW went Over....

i made the same post on last years game..and had people telling me how PHO's defense was better and the points wouldn't flow....

that was the 284 pt game...........

all game long in threads...UNDER backers were bitching , crying and  moaning about the projected total never dropping below 280 for the 1st 3 Q's......and why there was no defense..........

do you expect a tight defensive struggle ?

if you want this kind of hopeless feeling...blast away on the < 243 and hope it's an ugly slow game.......GSW home game ???

sure..that POR @ GSW game where GSW got 9 in the 4th Q could happen again.....but you're gonna need something special to happen for the under to come in....

i know my  logic on this game will eventually be wrong...and they will one day put up a lousy 40% shooting night and go under by 30 - 40 pts and give < backers a glorious win...............has to happen eventually....


but this game  ( PHO @ GSW .....not GSW @ PHO )  has given me 3 of my favourite over wins in my NBA betting career.........

and what's interesting....none of them came down to the last 2 mins...

they all went over with 3 - 6 mins to spare.....

and those of you who think B2B means a slower game.....
when a team is B2B,  defense is the 1st thing that suffers..........
 
Legend
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Posted: #82
I believe both unders were in Phoenix and the one over was in GSW -- do you think that somehow drastically changes the analysis?

I don't expect a "tight defensive struggle", but I see a 125-113 type of game, which is an UNDER based on the line I got (245). Even one quarter of sub-par shooting from either team will make this a very difficult over to hit. They will need to burn the nets up for the vast majority of the entire game to hit this number.

Your claim about defense being the first thing to go in a B2B is not accurate, in my opinion. It seems that tired legs often lead to short jumpers and slower paced games as a whole.

Either way, I appreciate the discussion and we'll see which way the ball bounces tonight, should be a fun game to watch regardless of the outcome.


 
Captain
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Posted: #83

Quote Originally Posted by kaponofor3:

I believe both unders were in Phoenix and the one over was in GSW -- do you think that somehow drastically changes the analysis?

I don't expect a "tight defensive struggle", but I see a 125-113 type of game, which is an UNDER based on the line I got (245). Even one quarter of sub-par shooting from either team will make this a very difficult over to hit. They will need to burn the nets up for the vast majority of the entire game to hit this number.

Your claim about defense being the first thing to go in a B2B is not accurate, in my opinion. It seems that tired legs often lead to short jumpers and slower paced games as a whole.

Either way, I appreciate the discussion and we'll see which way the ball bounces tonight, should be a fun game to watch regardless of the outcome.


you are well on your way to talking me into an UNDER

 
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Posted: #84
More data to analyze:

Mar Away FG Reb
01/23/10 PHO 112 - GS 103 GS 11.5 U 233 2.5 37/85 41/94 51-44
12/26/09 GS 132 - PHO 127 GS 3 O 232 8.0 48/84 47/88 40-36
10/30/09 PHO 123 - GS 101 PHO -5.5 U 233 16.5 45/84 36/85 47-38
04/15/09 PHO 117 - GS 113 GS 9.5 U 239 5.5 40/94 43/93 48-51
03/15/09 GS 130 - PHO 154 PHO 1.5 O 244 25.5 44/91 59/95 35-44
02/06/09 PHO 115 - GS 105 Push -10 U 230 25.5 45/90 39/86 44-43
02/04/09 GS 124 - PHO 112 GS 4 O 227.5 16.0 47/90 41/90 40-46
04/14/08 PHO 122 - GS 116 PHO -4.5 O 230.5 1.5 43/82 46/104 52-43
03/13/08 PHO 123 - GS 115 PHO -7.5 O 237 0.5 45/82 43/105 46-46
02/13/08 GS 120 - PHO 118 PHO 3.0 O 234.5 1.0 52/96 45/87 34-49

Kaplon makes a valid point.


 
Legend
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Posted: #85
I'm not trying to talk anyone into any play, just presenting my thought process and ideas. I love the discussion though.



Out of those 10 previous games that abzolute was kind enough to post in this thread, the two teams only went over this total twice -- 3/15/09 and 12/16/09.

I'll take my money on the 80% historical average and not the 20% one. If tonight ends up being one of those 20% of the times, then so be it, but to me, sports betting is about making informed decisions with the best information you can have.
 
Legend
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Posted: #86
Total is down to 243 at Bookmaker, that's a 2 point swing in approx. 3 hours


 
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Posted: #87

Quote Originally Posted by kaponofor3:

I'm not trying to talk anyone into any play, just presenting my thought process and ideas. I love the discussion though.



Out of those 10 previous games that abzolute was kind enough to post in this thread, the two teams only went over this total twice -- 3/15/09 and 12/16/09.

I'll take my money on the 80% historical average and not the 20% one. If tonight ends up being one of those 20% of the times, then so be it, but to me, sports betting is about making informed decisions with the best information you can have.

no man, I definately hear you.........This won't be a large play anyway, just an action junkie play , probably small.....But I agree, Suns are alot different from last year.......Im leaning UNDER again

 
Prospect
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Posted: #88
Bruuuuuce....

you've just committed the most heinous gambling crime one can commit...

you stated you were playing the OVER...and after a 4 page thread...you have swapped and gone for the UNDER......

that means the OVER is almost guaranteed now......because the gambling gods have you in their grasp...

the game sails over.....you'll be left sitting at home saying
"man,..my gut said over...i shouldn't have swapped..."

when does swapping late ever equal good news Bruuuuce ?

just because the total is set at 243.....doesn't mean those pts won't evaporate quickly ....


i've read a few messages saying "a few scoring droughts or a 40 - 50 pt Q sends this game way under"

it's like people think that there is a cap on 65 pts max per Q....
what about if there's  OT ? 

those 2 factors are the over backers insurance.....

what if there are 2 x  70pts + Q's ?...... =  140 pts....

those of you on the Under still feel good about having 104 - 105 pts to spare on those other 2 Q's ...

2 x 70 , means 2 x 52 pt Q' s  ( or less )  in those other Q's for the under....



i'm not saying the OVER is a certainty by any stretch...


i just know when the books set a line that is very tempting..and give a lot of pts ...UNDER backers sometimes start foaming and frothing at the mouth.....

but those pts in hand can evaporate very very quickly ....

why would the books shoot up the total spread for PHO  from 207.5 ( vs POR)  to today's  243.5 ? ....up 36 pts ?

you think the books shoot the line up 36 pts from the day before ( when the game went UNDER by a long way with a 207 total spread)  for no good reason......are the books that stupid ?




 
Prospect
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Posted: #89
"I believe both unders were in Phoenix and the one over was in GSW -- do you think that somehow drastically changes the analysis?"


FUCK YES !
 
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Posted: #90

Just take Phoenix -5, and save your nails.  This GS team is more beat up, than a Tyson opponent, in his hay day!  And, the Suns are rolling right now.  No letdown here, because Phoenix isn't going to want to start the roadie off, on a down note.

 
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Posted: #91
You guys are funny... Late movement = public money. 
 
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Posted: #92

Damn, this thread was so interesting that I will have to place my vote with a small play for fun.

I am swayed between kapono and under vs. vaportrail and over. Leaning under right now.

 
Prospect
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Posted: #93
its over. its so over. its rocco siffredi type of over
 
Rookie
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Posted: #94
Golden State is a streaky as team. There are better games to play so if you gonna play this game play small units. I'm about to head out the door and watch the game. It's my home team so I'm playing really small to keep it exciting for me.

PHX will be tired from last night

Picking Over!

NBA [619] TOTAL o243-105 (PHOENIX vrs GOLDEN STATE) 53.00 USD / 50.00 USD39486047
StraightMar 22NBA [620] GOLDEN STATE +5-105 105.00 USD / 100.00 USD39486048
StraightMar 22NBA [3620] 1Q GOLDEN STATE +1½-110 55.00 USD / 50.00 USD39486049

 
Captain
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Posted: #95
I cant believe we are discussing about the under in GS home game. Take the OVER and enjoy the fireworks
 
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Posted: #96
Ok, i am on the over parlayed to pho -4.5 for 10 bucks
 
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Posted: #97
may play in second half.  this would've been nerve wrecking though.
 
Captain
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Posted: #98
This one is going over by 30..........I put 20 bucks on the under for some entertainment...........But I may just go to sleep soon, this is brutal
 
Captain
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Posted: #99

Im just hoping the total stays a little low before half so I can hedge 90% of my 20 dollas back...........

 
 
Prospect
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Posted: #100
Fuck, this game is over.
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