Cincinatti ML (Cleveland resting starters with seed locked up and on road. Cleveland won and covered last 4 games. Due for an L)
NY Jets +2 (New England covered last 4 ATS and Jets lost last 3 ATS. Books begging you to take NE at home on short line that has went from +3 to +1.5 in some books. Jets on extended rest having played on Thursday night. Don't fall for the "Bill's last game in NE intrigue.)
Tenn +3.5 (Tennessee lost their last 3 games at home ATS and now playing with same season revenge against a banged up division rival and opportunity to play spoiler. Field goal game at best. I have the hook in my favor here as well.)
Over 41 Jax/Tenn (both of these teams are on 3 straight unders coming into this game. Plus their first game went over. Repeat the over in this game as well.)
San Francisco ML (Here is a stat that you may not know. As good as SF has been they have not covered in 4 straight games at home. This changes this week despite backups playing. Taking the ML just to be safe but an outright cover would not surprise me here.)
Denver +2.5 (Raiders have covered 3 straight games. They are due for an L. Denver has not had a winning season via record since 2016. They are playing for something in this game. Raiders already beat them earlier and both are out of contention for playoffs. No Josh at RB for Raiders either. Stidham is a former Raider who got cut and is now playing with revenge against former team. Payton has the coaching advantage. Furthermore, the line has not moved off of 2.5. Why? Because they are baiting you to take the Raiders on a small line at home. Go opposite. Take Denver)
Bears / Packers over 45 (Packers on 5 or 6 straight overs. Go opposite playing a good Bears defense. Points will be at a premium in this game. Take the under)
Bears +3 (They are playing solid football on both ends over the last month and a half. The addition of Montez Sweat has paid dividends on a massive level for this team. Field goal game. I could see a push here at best but an outright win is what I am expecting. GB has won 9 out of last 10 in this matchup. Same situation as the Tenn/Jax game where we have a division rival who lost earlier this year and now has the opportunity to play spoiler in last game of season. The thing is that I actually think that Chicago is the better team than GB in this case.)
Seattle ML (Arizona did their Superbowl last week. They will hurt their draft position if they win here. Regardless of that, Seattle is the better team and has the more experienced coach. It is a road game and I normally like taking dogs at home after a road win plus the fact that Arizona lost to two striaght division rivals at home in SF and Rams which gives me pause...but I think talent wins out here but it is close. Another field goal game and I am taking the better team in this situation but not taking the -3. Going ML instead.) A little note. The last 3 years in this series, the teams have exchanged unders and overs. if they played over the first game they go under the 2nd game. Take a look yourself. Based on this pattern, the over is in play. I was tempted to take the over here but I just stuck to the Seattle ML. Just an FYI.
TB / Carolina under 37.5 (TB has played the over in 3 straight road games and their QB is a bit banged up. They are due for an under on the road in a tight defensive match up. Carolina defense shows up here to keep it tight and under)
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