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🏈🏈🏈 “To BEt, or not to BEt, that is the question” ...Fubah2's risky bets

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Posted: #5176

Quote Originally Posted by Macwestie1:

BOO! an_razzGLclover on your play @fubah2 peace_5

TY, Mac!  BoL with your bets this evening clover moneybagan_2drinks

 
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Posted: #5177

Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:

Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: Good day, boys and ghouls...   For tonight's Texans @ Jets matchup, most indicators if not the overwhelming majority of them, are pointing to the Texans holding a significant advantage over the struggling JETS and the JETS likelyhood for continued struggles - particularly with all their injuries and walking wounded (including Rodgers!)  facing a 6 - 2 team with a dynamic young QB hungry for another win vs a beatable opponent that has dropped 5 straight games. And the TEXANS are the underdog???? 6- 2 team getting pts vs a struggling 2 - 6 team that fired their coach and just lost a top WR?  2 of every 3 appear to be backing the points with HOUSTON over the struggling JETS!   One might say this all looks  "too good to be true!" What is the prevailing wisdom whenever something appears to be "too good to be true!"

@fubah2

So, which way are you leaning?  smiley_3

 

 
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Posted: #5178

Quote Originally Posted by Zeus4par:

Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: Good day, boys and ghouls...   For tonight's Texans @ Jets matchup, most indicators if not the overwhelming majority of them, are pointing to the Texans holding a significant advantage over the struggling JETS and the JETS likelyhood for continued struggles - particularly with all their injuries and walking wounded (including Rodgers!)  facing a 6 - 2 team with a dynamic young QB hungry for another win vs a beatable opponent that has dropped 5 straight games. And the TEXANS are the underdog???? 6- 2 team getting pts vs a struggling 2 - 6 team that fired their coach and just lost a top WR?  2 of every 3 appear to be backing the points with HOUSTON over the struggling JETS!   One might say this all looks  "too good to be true!" What is the prevailing wisdom whenever something appears to be "too good to be true!" @fubah2 So, which way are you leaning?

TNF, pre-game bets: 

JETS -1.5 -120 @pinnacle  *BB

Mike Williams over 1.5 receptions -105  @pinnacle

Devonte Adams over 4.5 receptions -160  @BC

 
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Posted: #5179

Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:

Quote Originally Posted by Zeus4par: Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: Good day, boys and ghouls...   For tonight's Texans @ Jets matchup, most indicators if not the overwhelming majority of them, are pointing to the Texans holding a significant advantage over the struggling JETS and the JETS likelyhood for continued struggles - particularly with all their injuries and walking wounded (including Rodgers!)  facing a 6 - 2 team with a dynamic young QB hungry for another win vs a beatable opponent that has dropped 5 straight games. And the TEXANS are the underdog???? 6- 2 team getting pts vs a struggling 2 - 6 team that fired their coach and just lost a top WR?  2 of every 3 appear to be backing the points with HOUSTON over the struggling JETS!   One might say this all looks  "too good to be true!" What is the prevailing wisdom whenever something appears to be "too good to be true!" @fubah2 So, which way are you leaning? TNF, pre-game bets:  JETS -1.5 -120 @pinnacle  *BB Mike Williams over 1.5 receptions -105  @pinnacle Devonte Adams over 4.5 receptions -160  @BC

LEAN to a JETS su win 1h bet as well.....maybe during LIVE play

 

 

 
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Posted: #5180

Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:

Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: Quote Originally Posted by Zeus4par: Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: Good day, boys and ghouls...   For tonight's Texans @ Jets matchup, most indicators if not the overwhelming majority of them, are pointing to the Texans holding a significant advantage over the struggling JETS and the JETS likelyhood for continued struggles - particularly with all their injuries and walking wounded (including Rodgers!)  facing a 6 - 2 team with a dynamic young QB hungry for another win vs a beatable opponent that has dropped 5 straight games. And the TEXANS are the underdog???? 6- 2 team getting pts vs a struggling 2 - 6 team that fired their coach and just lost a top WR?  2 of every 3 appear to be backing the points with HOUSTON over the struggling JETS!   One might say this all looks  "too good to be true!" What is the prevailing wisdom whenever something appears to be "too good to be true!" @fubah2 So, which way are you leaning? TNF, pre-game bets:  JETS -1.5 -120 @pinnacle  *BB Mike Williams over 1.5 receptions -105  @pinnacle Devonte Adams over 4.5 receptions -160  @BC LEAN to a JETS su win 1h bet as well.....maybe during LIVE play

Just got this feeling that Rodgers is going to be "pass happy" tonight...

 
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Posted: #5181

Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:

Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: Quote Originally Posted by Zeus4par: Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: Good day, boys and ghouls...   For tonight's Texans @ Jets matchup, most indicators if not the overwhelming majority of them, are pointing to the Texans holding a significant advantage over the struggling JETS and the JETS likelyhood for continued struggles - particularly with all their injuries and walking wounded (including Rodgers!)  facing a 6 - 2 team with a dynamic young QB hungry for another win vs a beatable opponent that has dropped 5 straight games. And the TEXANS are the underdog???? 6- 2 team getting pts vs a struggling 2 - 6 team that fired their coach and just lost a top WR?  2 of every 3 appear to be backing the points with HOUSTON over the struggling JETS!   One might say this all looks  "too good to be true!" What is the prevailing wisdom whenever something appears to be "too good to be true!" @fubah2 So, which way are you leaning? TNF, pre-game bets:  JETS -1.5 -120 @pinnacle  *BB Mike Williams over 1.5 receptions -105  @pinnacle Devonte Adams over 4.5 receptions -160  @BC LEAN to a JETS su win 1h bet as well.....maybe during LIVE play

Just got this feeling that Rodgers is going to be "pass happy" tonight...

Whether or not he can avoid an INT is another Q....but, I say he improves...

 
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Posted: #5182

Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:

Just got this feeling that Rodgers is going to be "pass happy" tonight... Whether or not he can avoid an INT is another Q....but, I say he improves...

Jets...

Bad pass,  dropped pass,  sack,  punt

 
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Posted: #5183

Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:

Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: Just got this feeling that Rodgers is going to be "pass happy" tonight... Whether or not he can avoid an INT is another Q....but, I say he improves... Jets... Bad pass,  dropped pass,  sack,  punt

And a HUGE unforced error (lucky break) goes to HOUSTON on a 4th and 21 punt...

 
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Posted: #5184

Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:

Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: Just got this feeling that Rodgers is going to be "pass happy" tonight... Whether or not he can avoid an INT is another Q....but, I say he improves... Jets... Bad pass,  dropped pass,  sack,  punt And a HUGE unforced error (lucky break) goes to HOUSTON on a 4th and 21 punt...

BUT....on that "lucky break drive" >>>> karma!

JETS recover fumble!

 
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Posted: #5185

Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:

Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: Just got this feeling that Rodgers is going to be "pass happy" tonight... Whether or not he can avoid an INT is another Q....but, I say he improves... Jets... Bad pass,  dropped pass,  sack,  punt And a HUGE unforced error (lucky break) goes to HOUSTON on a 4th and 21 punt... BUT....on that "lucky break drive" >>>> karma! JETS recover fumble!

Then JETS fumble and recover their own!

 

 
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Posted: #5186

Thus team is a joke

 
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Posted: #5187

Thus team is a joke

 
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Posted: #5188

Remember folks......the NFL is ALL RIGGED! Right?!

 

 

It's really clever how they rigged that play where the JETS rookie RB heads for the endzone then drops the ball before the goalline...RIGGING has become so much more sophisticated....

THEN the NFL RIGGED the play where the Jets receiver caught a pass, fumbled, and it was a scoop and score for Houston but all called back  OSTENSIBLY because that entire play was RIGGED!! angry

 

Meanwhile 3 players leave the game with "alleged" injuries.  HA!  We know those injuries are all FAKE because we know the NFL rigs every game!

 

...unless I win all my bets....then clearly NOTHING is rigged...only when I lose an_wink

 
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Posted: #5189

Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:

Remember folks......the NFL is ALL RIGGED! Right?!     It's really clever how they rigged that play where the JETS rookie RB heads for the endzone then drops the ball before the goalline...RIGGING has become so much more sophisticated.... THEN the NFL RIGGED the play where the Jets receiver caught a pass, fumbled, and it was a scoop and score for Houston but all called back  OSTENSIBLY because that entire play was RIGGED!!   Meanwhile 3 players leave the game with "alleged" injuries.  HA!  We know those injuries are all FAKE because we know the NFL rigs every game!   ...unless I win all my bets....then clearly NOTHING is rigged...only when I lose
Mid 2Q, no scores yet, and Houston is driving deep! LIVE hedge BET: Houston +1.5 -120

 
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Posted: #5190

My JETS are LOSING 0 - 7

HT shtats: after even drives


1st downs: TEX 12 - 5
Net yards: TEX 201 - 69
OFF YPP:    TEX 4.8 - 3.0
Turnovers:    1 - 1
48+yd drives: 1 - 1
Penalty yds: TEX disadvantaged by -20 net diff


JETS get the ball to start 2H

 
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Posted: #5191

Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:

Remember folks......the NFL is ALL RIGGED! Right?!     It's really clever how they rigged that play where the JETS rookie RB heads for the endzone then drops the ball before the goalline...RIGGING has become so much more sophisticated.... THEN the NFL RIGGED the play where the Jets receiver caught a pass, fumbled, and it was a scoop and score for Houston but all called back  OSTENSIBLY because that entire play was RIGGED!!   Meanwhile 3 players leave the game with "alleged" injuries.  HA!  We know those injuries are all FAKE because we know the NFL rigs every game!   ...unless I win all my bets....then clearly NOTHING is rigged...only when I lose

Can't blame the sacks and dropped passes on RODGERS, or the injuries....because the NFL is ALL RIGGED... it's ALL SCRIPTED!!....every dropped ball or fumble and all those fake injuries to leave the game!  SCRIPTED!!! angry

If Mike Williams does NOT catch 2 passes to give me a winner, that *PROVES* the entire NFL is all RIGGED! an_arsed

 
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Posted: #5192

Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:

Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: Remember folks......the NFL is ALL RIGGED! Right?!     It's really clever how they rigged that play where the JETS rookie RB heads for the endzone then drops the ball before the goalline...RIGGING has become so much more sophisticated.... THEN the NFL RIGGED the play where the Jets receiver caught a pass, fumbled, and it was a scoop and score for Houston but all called back  OSTENSIBLY because that entire play was RIGGED!!   Meanwhile 3 players leave the game with "alleged" injuries.  HA!  We know those injuries are all FAKE because we know the NFL rigs every game!   ...unless I win all my bets....then clearly NOTHING is rigged...only when I lose Can't blame the sacks and dropped passes on RODGERS, or the injuries....because the NFL is ALL RIGGED... it's ALL SCRIPTED!!....every dropped ball or fumble and all those fake injuries to leave the game!  SCRIPTED!!! If Mike Williams does NOT catch 2 passes to give me a winner, that *PROVES* the entire NFL is all RIGGED!

How the NFL *RIGGED* that point after to hit the upright and "doink" in, well that's uncanny....and very clever!  Now they are scripting all the plays so it DOESN'T look *rigged* ...But we are on to them.  We know it's ALL SCRIPTED!  an_baby  That includes all those players who are allegedly questionable to return...

 
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Posted: #5193

Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:

TNF, pre-game bets: 

      JETS -1.5 -120 @pinnacle  *BB

      Mike Williams over 1.5 receptions -105  @pinnacle

W  Devonte Adams over 4.5 receptions -160  @BC

       LIVE hedge BET: Houston +1.5 -120 

Jets losing 7 - 10 but have momentum, I HOPE!

Anyway, Devonte caught his 5th to give me a win and the worst I can do is a 2 - 2 split tonight.......BUT if #18 Williams catches one more then 3 - 1

 
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Posted: #5194

Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:

Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: TNF, pre-game bets:        JETS -1.5 -120 @pinnacle  *BB       Mike Williams over 1.5 receptions -105  @pinnacle W  Devonte Adams over 4.5 receptions -160  @BC        LIVE hedge BET: Houston +1.5 -120  Jets losing 7 - 10 but have momentum, I HOPE! Anyway, Devonte caught his 5th to give me a win and the worst I can do is a 2 - 2 split tonight.......BUT if #18 Williams catches one more then 3 - 1

Well it looks like I will have to settle for a 2 - 2 split

 
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Posted: #5195

Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:

Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: 

TNF, pre-game bets: JETS -1.5 -120 @pinnacle  *BB    

JETS !!!! an_2drinks

 

 
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Posted: #5196

WEEK 09:

 

W   JETS -1.5 -120 @pinnacle *BB
 L    Mike Williams over 1.5 receptions -105 @pinnacle
W   Devonte Adams over 4.5 receptions -160 @BC
 L    LIVE hedge BET: Houston +1.5 -120...Mid 2Q, no scores yet

 

cool 2 - 1  on my posted pre-game bets, including my JETS *BEST BET,

         but lost my only LIVE bet (hedger)

 

an_light cool I have no less than nine "circled" bets (already handicapped) for Sunday as I monitor the injury status of several before making the bets. Heavy juice may be involved in some, so if you are inclined to the same bet  I advise betting small

 
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Posted: #5197

Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:

2024

Week 01:    1 - 0
Week 02:    3 - 1      (Losers: -115)
Week 03:    5 - 2     (Losers: -110, *-175)
Week 04:    6 - 2     (Losers: -250, -180)
Week 05:    5 - 2     (Losers: *-230, -175)
Week 06:    6 - 0
Week 07:    8 - 4     (Losers: *-108, -115, -153, *-210)

Week 08:    5 - 2     (Losers: -120, -125)

  =  39 - 13  an_2drinks

  BTW, these results are fine and so too are any others with a HIGH percentage win rate.... BUT there's just no way they can be sustained at or near those levels!

 an_shake  Must NOT think that way!

Regression to the mean *will* occur with all such stats, for EVERYBODY who attains them.

They always do!

EXPECT my win rate to fall over the coming weeks and it may start this week! There's just no way to accurately predict it other than regression (even if slight) is a foregone conclusion, and possibly imminent.

One must be realistic. And cautious! an_nailbiter

an_lightThe solution to looming regression is not to stop, or limit betting choices, but rather to continue handicapping the same way and betting the picks your handicapping indicates - BUT SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCE YOUR BET "size"

It is for this reason I am reducing my $$$$ bet sizes appropriately until further notice.

 

 
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Posted: #5198

@fubah2an_clap

 

What do you call an Eternal Optimist? An accordion with a beeper!
 
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Posted: #5199

peace_5peaceclover

Learn, be content and stay disciplined.
 
 
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Posted: #5200

@Fuse    peace_5

@Macwestie1 peace_5

 

THANK YOU, fellas! BoL with your bets today! moneybag clover

 

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