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🏈🏈🏈 “To BEt, or not to BEt, that is the question” ...Fubah2's risky bets

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Posted: #5201

@Fuse    peace_5

@Macwestie1 peace_5

 

THANK YOU, fellas! BoL with your bets today! moneybag clover

 

 
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Posted: #5202

Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:

2024

Week 01:    1 - 0
Week 02:    3 - 1      (Losers: -115)
Week 03:    5 - 2     (Losers: -110, *-175)
Week 04:    6 - 2     (Losers: -250, -180)
Week 05:    5 - 2     (Losers: *-230, -175)
Week 06:    6 - 0
Week 07:    8 - 4     (Losers: *-108, -115, -153, *-210)

Week 08:    5 - 2     (Losers: -120, -125)

  =  39 - 13  an_2drinks

 

BTW, these results are fine and so too are any others with a HIGH percentage win rate.... BUT there's just no way they can be sustained at or near those levels!  an_shake  Must NOT think that way!

Regression to the mean *will* occur with all such stats, for EVERYBODY who attains them.

They always do!

EXPECT my win rate to fall over the coming weeks and it may start this week! There's just no way to accurately predict it other than regression (even if slight) is a foregone conclusion, and possibly imminent.

One must be realistic. And cautious! 

The solution to looming regression is not to stop, or limit betting choices, but rather to continue handicapping the same way and betting the picks your handicapping indicates - BUT SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCE YOUR BET "size"

It is for this reason I am reducing my $$$$ bet sizes appropriately until further notice.

That said I have over a dozen games I have circled for bets...

 
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Posted: #5203

        Regression alert!

 

 

an_light  Tailing these is not recommended!

an_light   BAD IDEA to fade them as well!

 

   * I have significantly reduced my bet $$$ anticipating regression!

Already began the week 2 - 2 on Thursday  an_getaway

 

 
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Posted: #5204

an_police WARNING: REGRESSION looming.... tailing or fading NOT recommended

39 - 13 entering this week...  but  2 - 2 losers  from Thursday

ALL my bets will be significantly reduced $$$ amounts to mitigate losses!

Leaning for possible/likely in-game bets:
K'Boys
Bungles
Buffy
Chargers
Commandos
Broncos **
Saints
Rams
Colts
Cards
Jags
Lions

 
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Posted: #5205

Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:

Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: 2024 Week 01:    1 - 0Week 02:    3 - 1      (Losers: -115)Week 03:    5 - 2     (Losers: -110, *-175)Week 04:    6 - 2     (Losers: -250, -180)Week 05:    5 - 2     (Losers: *-230, -175)Week 06:    6 - 0Week 07:    8 - 4     (Losers: *-108, -115, -153, *-210) Week 08:    5 - 2     (Losers: -120, -125)   =  39 - 13     BTW, these results are fine and so too are any others with a HIGH percentage win rate.... BUT there's just no way they can be sustained at or near those levels!    Must NOT think that way! Regression to the mean *will* occur with all such stats, for EVERYBODY who attains them. They always do! EXPECT my win rate to fall over the coming weeks and it may start this week! There's just no way to accurately predict it other than regression (even if slight) is a foregone conclusion, and possibly imminent. One must be realistic. And cautious! The solution to looming regression is not to stop, or limit betting choices, but rather to continue handicapping the same way and betting the picks your handicapping indicates - BUT SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCE YOUR BET "size" It is for this reason I am reducing my $$$$ bet sizes appropriately until further notice.
   39 wins at 100 +3900 (losers with juice looks -2066) +1834  net so far ?  (but that is figured all wins were 100 and just added up the loss on juicers at 1x as well)     profit season is always nice  GOOD LUCK TODAY  peace   thanks for all the work you share

goldfinger 1964
 
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Posted: #5206

Quote Originally Posted by PUSSYGALORE333:

Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: 

  39 - 13    

BTW, these results are fine and so too are any others with a HIGH percentage win rate.... BUT there's just no way they can be sustained at or near those levels!   Must NOT think that way! Regression to the mean *will* occur with all such stats, for EVERYBODY who attains them. They always do! EXPECT my win rate to fall over the coming weeks and it may start this week! There's just no way to accurately predict it other than regression (even if slight) is a foregone conclusion, and possibly imminent. One must be realistic. And cautious!

 

39 wins at 100 +3900 (losers with juice looks -2066) +1834  net so far ?  (but that is figured all wins were 100 and just added up the loss on juicers at 1x as well)     profit season is always nice  GOOD LUCK TODAY     thanks for all the work you share

Yes, that is accurate peace_5....and I will add the 2 - 2  -0.25u from Thursday after I recap the whole weekend along with some itemized stats on my results particularly with regard to larger "chalk" bets (currently 13 - 0 )

BoL with your bets today! clover an_2drinks

 
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Posted: #5207

GL clover on your plays @fubah2peace_5

 

What do you call an Eternal Optimist? An accordion with a beeper!
 
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Posted: #5208

@Macwestie1

 Thanks, Mac! 

Wishing YOU a profitable day as well! an_2drinks

 
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Posted: #5209

Early 1Q, no score...Bills ball over midfield....LIVE BET: Bills -290  *BB

 
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Posted: #5210

Mid 1Q, FALCONS just scored to make 7 - 3....LIVE BET: K'Boys +7.5 -188 *BB

 
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Posted: #5211

Let’s Go Fubah continued success thanks for sharing my friend ????

 
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Posted: #5212

Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:

Early 1Q, no score...Bills ball over midfield....LIVE BET: Bills -290  *BB

 

Mid 1H 3 - 3...Miami driving deep..LIVE BET: highest scoring half?  2ndH -334

 
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Posted: #5213

Mid 2Q....Ravens lead 10 - 0....Denver ball and driving...LIVE BET: Broncos +17.5 -250

 
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Posted: #5214

Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:

Mid 1Q, FALCONS just scored to make 7 - 3....LIVE BET: K'Boys +7.5 -188 *BB

Yuck!   14 -3 Falcons as Dallas looks sad again angry

 
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Posted: #5215

Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:

Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: Mid 1Q, FALCONS just scored to make 7 - 3....LIVE BET: K'Boys +7.5 -188 *BB Yuck!   14 -3 Falcons as Dallas looks sad again

OK....that's better... my K'Boys score with 4 mins left....10 - 14

I figure they have a 40% -45% chance of a road upset...

 
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Posted: #5216

Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:

WARNING: REGRESSION looming.... tailing or fading NOT recommended

39 - 13 entering this week...  but  2 - 2 losers  from Thursday

ALL my bets will be significantly reduced $$$ amounts to mitigate losses!

Leaning for possible/likely in-game bets:
K'Boys
Bungles
Buffy
Chargers
Commandos
Broncos **
Saints
Rams
Colts
Cards
Jags
Lions

Well sh*t ....I wanted Saints, Commandos and Chargers (above) but they all raced out to leads and the lines went out of my range....but the ones I did grab - K'Boys and Bills - of course are losing! an_getaway

 
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Posted: #5217

Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:

Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: WARNING: REGRESSION looming.... tailing or fading NOT recommended 39 - 13 entering this week...  but  2 - 2 losers  from Thursday ALL my bets will be significantly reduced $$$ amounts to mitigate losses! Leaning for possible/likely in-game bets:K'BoysBunglesBuffyChargers CommandosBroncos **SaintsRamsColtsCardsJagsLions Well sh*t ....I wanted Saints, Commandos and Chargers (above) but they all raced out to leads and the lines went out of my range....but the ones I did grab - K'Boys and Bills - of course are losing!

And now my Broncos are down 14 on a fluke play just before HT

 
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Posted: #5218

Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:

Early 1Q, no score...Bills ball over midfield....LIVE BET: Bills -290  *BB

Bills suffered a horrific bad break with a fluky INT when driving to the goalline or this game would be totally different.....instead they are down 6 - 10  and now I need Bills to score at least 2 TDs in the 2H or I am sunk on REGRESSION SUNDAY

....as anticipated.... an_smash

 
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Posted: #5219

Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:

Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: Early 1Q, no score...Bills ball over midfield....LIVE BET: Bills -290  *BB Bills suffered a horrific bad break with a fluky INT when driving to the goalline or this game would be totally different.....instead they are down 6 - 10  and now I need Bills to score at least 2 TDs in the 2H or I am sunk on REGRESSION SUNDAY ....as anticipated....

3Q Miami starts a drive and I may look for a hedge bet here pretty soon if they can move into scoring position an_getaway

 
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Posted: #5220

Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:

Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: Early 1Q, no score...Bills ball over midfield....LIVE BET: Bills -290  *BB Bills suffered a horrific bad break with a fluky INT when driving to the goalline or this game would be totally different.....instead they are down 6 - 10  and now I need Bills to score at least 2 TDs in the 2H or I am sunk on REGRESSION SUNDAY ....as anticipated.... 3Q Miami starts a drive and I may look for a hedge bet here pretty soon if they can move into scoring position

Bills recover fumble!! LUCKY BREAKS now almost even imo....

 
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Posted: #5221

Cowboys are so so bad

Aloha Fakas
 
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Posted: #5222

They may be out of it with a loss today down

Balitimore is not backing down 

 
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Posted: #5223

Quote Originally Posted by shadowmagic808:

Cowboys are so so bad

Foolish punt gamble and it backfires bigly.....down to a 22% chance for an upset imo

an_shake

 
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Posted: #5224

Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:

Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: Early 1Q, no score...Bills ball over midfield....LIVE BET: Bills -290  *BB Bills suffered a horrific bad break with a fluky INT when driving to the goalline or this game would be totally different.....instead they are down 6 - 10  and now I need Bills to score at least 2 TDs in the 2H or I am sunk on REGRESSION SUNDAY ....as anticipated.... 3Q Miami starts a drive and I may look for a hedge bet here pretty soon if they can move into scoring position Bills recover fumble!! LUCKY BREAKS now almost even imo....

Bills score but miss a *CRUCIAL* PAT  an_smash

A simple FG can beat them at home...

 
 
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Posted: #5225

Quote Originally Posted by vc1028:

They may be out of it with a loss today down Balitimore is not backing down

Either way, hope you win your bets today clover an_cheers

 

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