You have an opportunity to bet on a coin-flip with these betting odds:
Heads -150 (risk $150 to win $100) Tails +125 (risk $100 to win $125)
....and you can even select any legal coin from your own pocket and YOU do the coin flip!
Which side would you pick given those odds?
OBVIOUSLY tails!!! I mean seriously, what kinda dummy would consider otherwise?!
Okay, so you toss your own coin above your head and let it bounce off the floor.
Oy! It's HEADS. You lose.
Looking backward to assess your selection, did you make a good "value pick" given those odds despite the eventual outcome which you could not possibly know before making the bet?
5
Illustrating a point about handicapping:
You have an opportunity to bet on a coin-flip with these betting odds:
Heads -150 (risk $150 to win $100) Tails +125 (risk $100 to win $125)
....and you can even select any legal coin from your own pocket and YOU do the coin flip!
Which side would you pick given those odds?
OBVIOUSLY tails!!! I mean seriously, what kinda dummy would consider otherwise?!
Okay, so you toss your own coin above your head and let it bounce off the floor.
Oy! It's HEADS. You lose.
Looking backward to assess your selection, did you make a good "value pick" given those odds despite the eventual outcome which you could not possibly know before making the bet?
Illustrating a point about handicapping: You have an opportunity to bet on a coin-flip with these betting odds: Heads -150 (risk $150 to win $100) Tails +125 (risk $100 to win $125) ....and you can even select any legal coin from your own pocket and YOU do the coin flip! Which side would you pick given those odds? OBVIOUSLY tails!!!I mean seriously, what kinda dummy would consider otherwise?! Okay, so you toss your own coin above your head and let it bounce off the floor. Oy! It's HEADS. You lose. Looking backward to assess your selection, did you make a good "value pick" given those odds despite the eventual outcome which you could not possibly know before making the bet?
This is honestly what the majority of gamblers do not understand.
You try to get your chips in on a bet that is a perceived edge. Sometimes it wins, sometimes it loses. But if you are able to repeat it enough - you will win.
So I always say - the process is way more important than any result. The process is what proves you can do this longterm, the result is just a short term data point. In your example above, if you can flip the coin once - you will lose 50% of the time. But if you can get 100 flips at the same odds, or 1k flips - you are going to be profitable.
So many around here criticize +odds ML dogs for losing. I like to say - I make wagers ALL THE TIME THAT I THINK WILL LOSE. What? Yes. I make +odds wagers all the time that are likely to lose. But when you are betting +500 dogs, you are only betting that you think the real odds are less than +500 - you are not betting that it has a better than 50/50 chance of winning.
A lot of this separates amateurs who bet their rent on every game vs guys that look at long term results.
Support your local animal shelter. I am on twitter.
4
Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:
Illustrating a point about handicapping: You have an opportunity to bet on a coin-flip with these betting odds: Heads -150 (risk $150 to win $100) Tails +125 (risk $100 to win $125) ....and you can even select any legal coin from your own pocket and YOU do the coin flip! Which side would you pick given those odds? OBVIOUSLY tails!!!I mean seriously, what kinda dummy would consider otherwise?! Okay, so you toss your own coin above your head and let it bounce off the floor. Oy! It's HEADS. You lose. Looking backward to assess your selection, did you make a good "value pick" given those odds despite the eventual outcome which you could not possibly know before making the bet?
This is honestly what the majority of gamblers do not understand.
You try to get your chips in on a bet that is a perceived edge. Sometimes it wins, sometimes it loses. But if you are able to repeat it enough - you will win.
So I always say - the process is way more important than any result. The process is what proves you can do this longterm, the result is just a short term data point. In your example above, if you can flip the coin once - you will lose 50% of the time. But if you can get 100 flips at the same odds, or 1k flips - you are going to be profitable.
So many around here criticize +odds ML dogs for losing. I like to say - I make wagers ALL THE TIME THAT I THINK WILL LOSE. What? Yes. I make +odds wagers all the time that are likely to lose. But when you are betting +500 dogs, you are only betting that you think the real odds are less than +500 - you are not betting that it has a better than 50/50 chance of winning.
A lot of this separates amateurs who bet their rent on every game vs guys that look at long term results.
Some folks might suggest the Eagles aren't so great because they haven't beaten any really good teams this season.
Well, two things about that:
1/ they have no control over the league schedule....can't beat what you can't play, and
2/ they actually did play one on Sunday. They won 31 - 7. Now I will admit they were the recipients of good fortune. But that fact does not in turn suggest they would've lost that game WITHOUT that good fortune. Not at all. They still beat the niners, albeit by a single score is more likely
EAGLES 1 - 0 vs really good teams on their schedule.
The other thing some might suggest is conversely the Chiefs are battle tested having faced really good teams 4 times!
That's true.
It's also true the Chiefs don't have a winning record against those really good teams (2 - 2)
4
Regarding the Super-Duper Bowl....
Some folks might suggest the Eagles aren't so great because they haven't beaten any really good teams this season.
Well, two things about that:
1/ they have no control over the league schedule....can't beat what you can't play, and
2/ they actually did play one on Sunday. They won 31 - 7. Now I will admit they were the recipients of good fortune. But that fact does not in turn suggest they would've lost that game WITHOUT that good fortune. Not at all. They still beat the niners, albeit by a single score is more likely
EAGLES 1 - 0 vs really good teams on their schedule.
The other thing some might suggest is conversely the Chiefs are battle tested having faced really good teams 4 times!
That's true.
It's also true the Chiefs don't have a winning record against those really good teams (2 - 2)
Where are you with the money laying all that Vig? Winning % does not tell the true story. What matters is monies won that's the object in what we are doing here. Complete your math.
4
@fubah2
Where are you with the money laying all that Vig? Winning % does not tell the true story. What matters is monies won that's the object in what we are doing here. Complete your math.
@fubah2 Where are you with the money laying all that Vig? Winning % does not tell the true story. What matters is monies won that's the object in what we are doing here. Complete your math.
@CRAPDEALER
Yeah, good point. You're right. I neglected to do that.
So I will post my updated "full betting results" today (includes vig results)...
But in the meantime,
my full betting results were posted (prior to my EAGLES -145 winner)onpage 34 of this thread, posts #834 thru #839 for anyone's review
@fubah2 Where are you with the money laying all that Vig? Winning % does not tell the true story. What matters is monies won that's the object in what we are doing here. Complete your math.
@CRAPDEALER
Yeah, good point. You're right. I neglected to do that.
So I will post my updated "full betting results" today (includes vig results)...
But in the meantime,
my full betting results were posted (prior to my EAGLES -145 winner)onpage 34 of this thread, posts #834 thru #839 for anyone's review
Very nice record in playoffs 16-1-1 Fubah I’m already teasing Philly,both ways teasing I think are good but I’m doing 10 points and 13 this game should be decided by no more than 7 points my opinion Bol on SB and go tigers and canes in college
3
Very nice record in playoffs 16-1-1 Fubah I’m already teasing Philly,both ways teasing I think are good but I’m doing 10 points and 13 this game should be decided by no more than 7 points my opinion Bol on SB and go tigers and canes in college
@fubah2 Where are you with the money laying all that Vig? Winning % does not tell the true story. What matters is monies won that's the object in what we are doing here. Complete your math.
*if a viewer had chosen to bet an average of 3-units-to-win on all my posted picks.
6
Quote Originally Posted by CRAPDEALER:
@fubah2 Where are you with the money laying all that Vig? Winning % does not tell the true story. What matters is monies won that's the object in what we are doing here. Complete your math.
@fubah2 Where are you with the money laying all that Vig? Winning % does not tell the true story. What matters is monies won that's the object in what we are doing here. Complete your math.
Hope I answered your query
2
Quote Originally Posted by CRAPDEALER:
@fubah2 Where are you with the money laying all that Vig? Winning % does not tell the true story. What matters is monies won that's the object in what we are doing here. Complete your math.
Quote Originally Posted by Zeus4par: Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: Posted NFL playoffs bets: 16 - 1 - 1 (14 - 1 *Best Bets) Scheisse! Heck of a post-season run
Nice!
@Europa
Thank you, Europa. I wish there was only one week off before the SB. Never got on board with a 2 week hiatus
1
Quote Originally Posted by Europa:
Quote Originally Posted by Zeus4par: Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: Posted NFL playoffs bets: 16 - 1 - 1 (14 - 1 *Best Bets) Scheisse! Heck of a post-season run
Nice!
@Europa
Thank you, Europa. I wish there was only one week off before the SB. Never got on board with a 2 week hiatus
A player for the NFL’s Philadelphia Eagles has been indicted on rape charges in Ohio, according to an indictment announced Wednesday by the Ohio Attorney General’s Office.
A grand jury indicted Josh Sills, 25, accusing him of raping a woman and holding her against her will on December 5, 2019, in Guernsey County.
He faces felony charges of rape and kidnapping, the indictment states.
0
A player for the NFL’s Philadelphia Eagles has been indicted on rape charges in Ohio, according to an indictment announced Wednesday by the Ohio Attorney General’s Office.
A grand jury indicted Josh Sills, 25, accusing him of raping a woman and holding her against her will on December 5, 2019, in Guernsey County.
He faces felony charges of rape and kidnapping, the indictment states.
A player for the NFL’s Philadelphia Eagles has been indicted on rape charges in Ohio, according to an indictment announced Wednesday by the Ohio Attorney General’s Office. A grand jury indicted Josh Sills, 25, accusing him of raping a woman and holding her against her will on December 5, 2019, in Guernsey County. He faces felony charges of rape and kidnapping, the indictment states.
The alleged 2019 rape was immediately reported then and an investigation by the Guernsey County Sheriff’s office subsequently ensued.
*And news of this is only surfacing now
1
Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:
A player for the NFL’s Philadelphia Eagles has been indicted on rape charges in Ohio, according to an indictment announced Wednesday by the Ohio Attorney General’s Office. A grand jury indicted Josh Sills, 25, accusing him of raping a woman and holding her against her will on December 5, 2019, in Guernsey County. He faces felony charges of rape and kidnapping, the indictment states.
The alleged 2019 rape was immediately reported then and an investigation by the Guernsey County Sheriff’s office subsequently ensued.
Tom Brady announces retirement for good. I still say he really should have retired after that SB win with Bucs. Go out on top! He already had more money than he could ever spend! Instead he exits on a sour note...
Bob Costas interview informs that Brady signed an extremely lucrative 10 year deal with FOX sports as an analyst.
Good for him. He could be very good at this. I wish him well.
He might even be as good as Troy Aikman or Tony Romo!
1
Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:
Tom Brady announces retirement for good. I still say he really should have retired after that SB win with Bucs. Go out on top! He already had more money than he could ever spend! Instead he exits on a sour note...
Bob Costas interview informs that Brady signed an extremely lucrative 10 year deal with FOX sports as an analyst.
Good for him. He could be very good at this. I wish him well.
He might even be as good as Troy Aikman or Tony Romo!
Illustrating a point about handicapping: You have an opportunity to bet on a coin-flip with these betting odds: Heads -150 (risk $150 to win $100) Tails +125 (risk $100 to win $125) ....and you can even select any legal coin from your own pocket and YOU do the coin flip! Which side would you pick given those odds? OBVIOUSLY tails!!!I mean seriously, what kinda dummy would consider otherwise?! Okay, so you toss your own coin above your head and let it bounce off the floor. Oy! It's HEADS. You lose. Looking backward to assess your selection, did you make a good "value pick" given those odds despite the eventual outcome which you could not possibly know before making the bet?
The odd thing is there are people who would actually overthink this and choose heads -150 on a coin flip ignoring the obvious value on tails +125
Then when they lose come to a forum and whine about how it was all "rigged" against the "heads -150" backers
0
Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:
Illustrating a point about handicapping: You have an opportunity to bet on a coin-flip with these betting odds: Heads -150 (risk $150 to win $100) Tails +125 (risk $100 to win $125) ....and you can even select any legal coin from your own pocket and YOU do the coin flip! Which side would you pick given those odds? OBVIOUSLY tails!!!I mean seriously, what kinda dummy would consider otherwise?! Okay, so you toss your own coin above your head and let it bounce off the floor. Oy! It's HEADS. You lose. Looking backward to assess your selection, did you make a good "value pick" given those odds despite the eventual outcome which you could not possibly know before making the bet?
The odd thing is there are people who would actually overthink this and choose heads -150 on a coin flip ignoring the obvious value on tails +125
Then when they lose come to a forum and whine about how it was all "rigged" against the "heads -150" backers
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Which side would you pick given those odds?
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