🏈🏈🏈 “To BEt, or not to BEt, that is the question” ...Fubah2's risky bets

Good luck.  Stay hot! 

The line is begging bettors to take the home dogs there.  Something smells fishy

Now that the games are already started, this won't count, but the plays I would have normally bet/posted were going to be Pitts su, Tenn su, and Giants +7.5    I backed off anticipating the regression

There ya go.  It's probable you would have lost all three of those if you would bet and post them

Good call, Fubah2

Yep, woulda lost those 3 i didn't bet/post but fortunately I won the two *BEST BETS that I did bet/post

Dodged a bullet

added HIGH RISK bets:

49ers -   180

Seahawks -185

Was leaning toward Chargers and buying up to +7.5 ....but I'm not liking their defensive injury situation against Tua

Looks like I will split these last two and go 3 - 1 today

I am eyeing up Mia TT o29.5 but hot damn, that is a BIG number. Not sure if or what I am playing yet

Can u play that one on LIVE Action bets?  I will consider it myself (in-play live) but will watch the first couple series to see how that suspect Charger defense holds up and if Tua is going to have himself a good game.  Otherwise it certainly has potential

3 - 1    No play on Sunday night.  Although I had a winning day, actually as far as my handicapping goes, there are those 3 picks I noted above after game start, which I normally would have bet/posted but I backed off from fear of the "regression"   Glad I did, as all 3 would have been losses.  So in terms of my capping results the "regression" is actually underway....

My Dec 11 HIGH RISK bets:

W   BENGALS -238    *BEST BET
W   BILLS -2.5-342    *BEST BET
W   49ers - 180
Loss  Seahawks -185

= 3 - 1                ( 2 - 0 *Best Bets)

Weird game.   Dolphins only pts off a lucky break.

I need them to score at least 10 or I lose a wad of money

How about MNF?

My first NFL bet this year was Oct. 10, 2022 (week 5)
Annually I prefer to sit out the first few weeks and observe
how the teams are performing before betting real money.

Week 05:   1 - 1       (1 - 0 *Best Bets)
Week 06:   1 - 1       (1 - 1 *Best Bets)
Week 07:   4 - 3       (3 - 1 *Best Bets)
Week 08:   7 - 2       (4 - 2 *Best Bets)
Week 09:   9 - 1       (5 - 1 *Best Bets)
Week 10:   6 - 5*     (5 - 4 *Best Bets) (heavy losses on juice)
Week 11:   7 - 3~     (5 - 3 *Best Bets)
Week 12:   9 - 1       (3 - 1 *Best Bets)
Week 13:   9 - 1*     (5 - 1 *Best Bets)
Week 14:   3 - 1       (2 - 0 *Best Bets)
----------------------------------------
YTD:  56 - 19

[Quote: Originally Posted by fubah2:

My Dec 11 HIGH RISK bets:   = 3 - 1     ( 2 - 0 *Best Bets)

[/Quote]

YTD:  56 - 19      includes 34 - 14  *Best Bets

YTD Breakdown:

38 - 13 FAVS overall

          34 - 11 on Home Favs

            4 - 2 on Away Favs

18 - 6 DOGS overall

         15 - 4 on Home Dogs

          3 - 2 on Away Dogs

Current HOT STREAK: 28 - 6 (4 weeks) but very unlikely to continue

Colt McCoy has a different style for sure but more than capable backup to Murray.  Patriots OL hurting and struggling

Colt MCcoy was ruined by the Browns IMO 

He was so good at Texas 

He was very solid at Texas.

Thoughts for TNF? 

Want a good fade opportunity?
Here ya go!

Two reasons:
One, I'm on a wild 25 - 5 HOT STREAK, and if you read my comments above you understand how I have reason to be very cautious with any bets due to serious concerns about "regression" (market correction if you prefer). I expected it would start to hit me last week and sure enough it did start, but the regression hasn't fulfilled its potential yet. More losses coming, I just don't know when or how many, but I am certainly overdue at this point.

Secondly, I *LOSE* my posted bets about 85% - 90% of the time whenever I do a writeup on a particular side.

I KID YOU NOT! 85% - 90% of the time!

It's a fugkn curse!

But there's that 10% - 15% of the time where the curse doesn't affect my bet and it wins. That could be tonight. Or not. Who knows.

But the odds are seriously against my pick.....which may be good news for YOU.   Or not.

Coming....

When you are hot, you are hot!  No regression coming.  

SF @Seattle;   part 1 of 2...

What I am focussing on:
Niners are the better team, yes, but maybe not by as large a margin as many might think.
Consider: 49ers are an awesome 7 - 1 and +105 pt differential on home turf,
but losing 2 - 3 for +15 pt differential on the road!
That compares with Seahawks 3 - 3 and +9 pt differential at home!

This is crucial and worth restating, imo.....Niners are terrific at home, sure! Home field is great!  But so far a losing record of 2 - 3 for only +15 net points over 5 "true" road games!!
And even that meagre +15 pt differential on the road was achieved with their starting QB whom they don't have now!
Purdy played well as a backup, yes!, but Garopolo is still the better QB and those road states were achieved with a better QB.

Add to this, Brock Purdy who was questionable with sore ribs, will play, but play hurt in an area that can affect passing. It could affect either his throwing and/or decisions to throw or not. Certainly one solid hit in his ribs could knock him OUT! Ultimately, Purdy may have a good game, this is uncertain, but make no mistake, he is not 100% like he was his first two appearances.
Add to this, they just lost arguably their top WR (Samuel) this past Sunday, who is frequently given the ball on rushing attempts too due to his speed. GONZO!
Add to this a defense which has been playing very well, yes!, but the injuries are mounting and they are overdue for a bad day. Covers lists the 49ers with 3 CB out, a DB out, and a CB questionable, just for the past 2 weeks. Givens is out on the D-Line and Armstead and Bosa will both play with injuries. Backup Ridgeway is out, and Hyder is now questionable. So only one truly healthy starter on the D-Line, and a secondary full of backups.

Then there is the niners 6 game winning streak - of which only one was a true road game. It's GREAT! And they have been playing all those home games very well! But therein lies the problem.....they are due for a bad game sooner or later. We all should intuitively understand this. It might seem more likely it will happen with a backup QB, playing hurt, on the road.

more ...

Part 2
Conversely, I look at the last game the Seahawks played (home to Carolina) They lost by 6 pts. But thdifference in the game was a BIG LUCKY BREAK for Carolina when they got an early turnover at Seattle's 13. Touchdown. That break was the difference. That and Seattle's star running back, Kenneth Walker was OUT.
Walker is back tonight!!
Looking at Seahawks recent weeks, just 1 win and 3 losses.
They lost by 5 to Tampa.
Lost in overtime to Raiders.
Beat the struggling Rams on the road.
And the loss to Carolina by 6, decided only by a lucky TO at the 13.
Leads me to believe Seahawks are due for a good game. Finally. Like they did in the 4 game stretch before the recent 4 game stretch! Maybe not win, but definitely an improved performance over the past 4 weeks.

To me, the mediocre 49er road record, combined now with a backup QB, who is playing hurt which may affect throws, on a short week with no practice, down his best WR, now overdue for a bad game while the Seahawks are due for a good game, makes this game a virtual tossup.
SanFrancisco, despite all the injuries, are still the better team overall.
But on the road they have not proven to be anywhere near as dominant as at home. The stats bear that out.

And finally there is this intangible: Seahawks will be fighting not only for their playoff lives, but if they beat 49ers, they even have a shot to win the division, as weird as that might seem. But they desperately need a win tonight, and they know it, because they travel to KC next week for a sure loss. If they want the division, it absolutely must start tonight. Failure tonight is likely to mean they won't even make the playoffs. I am certain they all know this too!

My capping says Seattle is likely to keep this very close and may even win outright.

Seahawks +7.5 -210  (buying pts for a cushion)

**All that said, remember my two caveats, especially the one where I almost always LOSE when I do a writeup supporting my pick.