20 reasons why I think the Ravens line is inflated (***Novel alert**)

I'm a diehard Ravens fan as most of you know, but have zero bias. Some of you might remember when I hit 21 straight regular season Ravens game a few years back. I actually only went 3-2 this year in their games, but 1 of those losses was San Diego +1

I think the Ravens can win this game so of course I am taking 9. Am I saying they will? No, I think it will be a great game, but I can think of 50 reasons why catching over a TD is too good to pass up this week just like it was in New England last year for the AFC Championship game. Does that mean they will cover and this is a lock? Again, no, but I think they get in this number 8 out of every 10 times this game is played. Denver is a very scary team that is capable of blowing teams out as we have seen for months now so don't go putting a mortgage on this. I just can think of many reasons why this line is inflated so I thought I would share some insight and get some discussion going.

Here are 20 of those 50:

1. Peyton Manning is not invincible in the playoffs. Maybe he is during the regular season, but he was 1 and done in the playoffs 7 out of 11 appearances with the Colts. In fact, the last playoff game he played was a home loss to Mark Sanchez in 2010. In that game, the Colts came in red hot winners of 5 in a row, but lost 17-16 to the Jets in Indy. He also lost twice to Phillip Rivers and Norv Turner, two guys usually allergic to even getting into the playoffs.

2. Another Peyton Manning stat coming up. Look, I actually love the guy and watch him whenever possible, but I think this line is as high as it is because people think he is a machine. He has been this year, but all the guy has done in his career is win in the regular season. This should be of no surprise, but back to his playoff performances. In outdoor cold weather playoff games, he is 2-3 with 4 touchdowns and NINE INTERCEPTIONS. Good enough for a QB Rating of 60. He has never played well in cold weather and many thought Denver was not a possibile destination because of this. I believe his record is 1-3 when the temperature is under 40 degrees.

3. I think the Broncos dominating win over the Ravens is fresh in everyone's minds...again leading to an inflated price. Please throw that game out. Yes, the Broncos moved the ball up and down the field with Moreno, but the Ravens were without their two starting LB's...Lewis and Ellerbe (who is playing out of his mind right now). They were also without their starting safety Bernard Pollard (Pro Bowl replacement) and reigning defensive player of the year All Pro Suggs. Ngata was also playing at 30% maximum dealing with multiple injuries. Remember, that game also turned ugly on a pick 6 before half, but I won't look at that game for one second. Bynes and Ayanbadejo led the Ravens in tackling that game.

4. The Ravens new look offensive line. They finally decided to play with their 5 best offensive lineman last week. Oher at Right Tackle (can't play left) and Mckinnie played left. Mckinnie was outstanding last week and I am glad he is finally out of Harbaugh's doghouse. They were a mess at the time Denver came to Baltimore and you can't have an incohesive offensive line against that Denver pass rush.

5. Sticking with the offensive line theme, Marshall Yanda is back and fully healthy. Some may say who the darn is that? Well, he is an All Pro and you could argue he is the best guard in football. He was out for the Broncos game. Joe Flacco's passer ratings the last 3 games Yanda has played have all been over 110.

6. People will read Peyton Manning is 9-0 in his last 9 games against the Ravens. This is true, but misleading. He has never thrown for over 300 yards against the Ravens and only averaged 245 yards in those 9 games. To put that into perspective, he is averaging about 290 a game over the last 3 years. He actually threw for a season low 210 yards against the Ravens (blowout had something to do with that too). People need to understand that the Colts cover 2 defense and pass rush is what beat the Ravens all those years. The Ravens never had a QB who could throw over the middle to move the ball. See 15-6 home loss to Peyton in 2006 who threw for 0 TD's (Reed picked him twice).

7. The bye. You ask how is this a bad thing? Well, it is good for rest and to prevent injuries, but the Colts were rolling. Winners of 11 straight just smoking anyone in their way. I think this break could actually stop their momentum.

8. Did the Broncos peak too early? It is possible. It is very difficult to win 14 games in a row in the NFL which is what they will have to do to win the Super Bowl. How many times do we see a Wild Card team who gets hot toward the end of the year and then makes a run in the playoffs? See it in almost every sport.

9. The Short Week. People are going to point to the fact that the NFL fucked the Ravens again by giving them a 6 day week before heading out to the altitude in Denver (why isn't Houston playing Saturday?), but the Ravens have made this same short road trip 3 of the last 4 years in the playoffs. (lost a game they had a giant lead in at Pittsburgh in 2010, lost to the Colts in 2009, beat Tennessee in a game everyone picked them to lose in 2008). Exaggerated angle in my opinion.

10. Joe Flacco. Won't be rattled. There is a reason that he is not just the only QB to make the playoffs every year the last five, but he has won a game in each year. Highest QBR last week in the Wild Card round by a wide marging. People still want to fade him and I think that contributes to an inflated line here. Denver is a tough place to play, but one thing you can't argue about Flacco is his poise. Never gets flustered and has been clutch in the playoffs his whole career in places like Pittsburgh and New England. Also, he has never shown any signs of not liking the cold weather. I think his ball travels much better in cold windy air.

11. Jim Caldwell. Or should I say no more Cam Cameron? It was Caldwell's first game as offensive coordinator for that Broncos blowout. He is actually utilizing the offensive talent on the team (see Boldin last week). Play calling has been on another planet compared to under Cameron. Also doesn't hurt he knows Peyton as well as any coach in the NFL.

12. Close game experience. If this game is close late, the Ravens should have the upper hand. They were 5-3 in games decided by 7 points or less (threw out meaningless Cincy game). The Broncos were 0-2 losing two early in the year.

13. Same season revenge. Easily use that game as an emotional springboard. Ravens take offense to home losses and rarely ever get embarrassed at home despite who is hurt.

14. Ray Lewis. Man had 13 tackles last week and the run defense with him this year has been much better than without him. But, that is not the point. He is not only the emotional leader of the defense, but of the entire team. You need a leader like that for a road playoff game. Players play for him and you know they will put everything they have out there knowing a loss means the end of his brilliant career.

15. Ravens red zone defense. The Ravens defense is not what it once was, but they are number 1 in the NFL in the redzone. Keeping 7's off the board in the playoffs is how you cover as a dog. The Broncos are going to move the ball....there is no denying that, but the Ravens should be right in this game if they do what they have done all year on defense inside the 20.

16. The emergence of Bernard Pierce. Guess who has the highest YPC of all running backs in this game at 4.9? I'll give you a hint...it is not Rice, Mcgahee or Moreno. Huge change of pace guy and depth at running back will be important in the altitude.

17. Are the Ravens peaking at the right time? I don't know, but they got their ugly losing streak out of the way before two impressive wins over the Giants and Colts playing for their lives while getting healthy. As I said before, sometimes it is all about timing.

18. NFL recent playoff history says one of the large AFC favorites is going down. In 5 straight years, a home team off of a bye laying more than 7 has lost outright. 2007: Gmen beat Dallas (-7) 2008: Cards trucked Carolina (-10) 2009: Jets beat SD (-7.5). 2010: Jets beat Pats (-9.5) 2011: Gmen rolled Pack (-8)

19. Who did Denver really beat this year? Already spoke about how I don't put much stock into their Ravens win although it was impressive. I believe the Bengals were the only other team with a winning record they beat all season. Lost to Patriots, Texans and Falcons earlier in the year. Is their cake division also contributing to the perception of how good this team really is?

20. Big play potential. When you have Ed Reed lurking (picked Manning twice in a playoff game before), Suggs/Kruger rushing the passer off the edge and Pro Bowler Jacoby Jones returning kicks/punts, you always have the chance for a game turning play at any time. Throw in a few shots to Torrey Smith also. Flacco's deep ball looked fantastic last week (QBR of over 100 on passed 25 yards and more down the field). Now, the altitude might take away the kickoff returning ability of Jones, but he is still very dangerous on punt returns. Same goes for Holliday on the Broncos side.

21. Bonus: Lee Evans can't drop any touchdowns.

Now, I am worried about a lot. Is someone going to cover Eric Decker? He was running circles around Williams the first matchup. The Ravens offense scores 14 fewer points on the road. Now, their defense actually gives up 2 less, but that is a 12 point swing. Broncos are +9 overall at home compared to on the road this season. Their offense also scores 8 fewer PPG on natural turf as I their offense does rely on the big play abilities of the speedy Rice and Torrey Smith. Altitiude will be an issue in the second half for this older defense if the offense doesn't control the ball in the first half against this no huddle offense. Tucker has been great all year long and has a monster leg that can do damage a mile high, but do the Ravens really trust any kicker on the road in the playoffs after Cundiff last year? Could possibly be an emotional letdown after that huge Colts win/Ray Lewis celebration last week.

Those are my thoughts. Would love to hear yours. Good luck to all.

Very nice writeup Stuckey.  This is such a different (better) Ravens team the Broncos will be facing this time.  Your point about Yanda being a factor is right on.  He makes whoever is playing next to him (Oher) better.  The Ravens offensive line looked much better last game.  

On the defensive side, Kruger is playing better than ever, holding the edge and pressuring the QB.  Suggs is getting better every week.  Having Ray in the middle makes a big difference against the run and is the master of reading offenses.  Ed Reed sees this run may be his last chance at a ring.  Having Pollard in the lineup helps free Reed up to do what he does best...ballhawk.

I'm concerned about the Ravens defensive line and pass coverage.  Chykie Brown has played better at the corner lately and Cory Graham is very good.   Backup corners are weak.  The defensive line got their butts kicked by the Broncos O-line last time against the run.  If that happens again, the Ravens are in for a long day.  Ray is weak against the pass in the middle and Payton knows it.

The Ravens offense is solid and the special teams are special.

As you said, the Ravens coaching is better without Cameron.

Flacco is better when he gets some protection.  But if you noticed, against the Colts, there were misdirections and rollouts that we didn't see under Cameron and Flacco made some plays.  And yes, he's been in this postion before.

Ravens are motivated and dangerous.  I'll take the points, thank you.