2011-12 NFL Predictions

If you like Miami or not, +7 is just ridiculous in my opinion, and I am a bigtime Pats fan.

Seriously 7 points to a "dangerous" team at home on primetime to start the year. Unreal. Pretty sure the Pats struggled with the bills a few years back on MNF to start the season and squeaked out like a 1 point win. I can understand not backing the Dolphins, but Pats -7 has no value IMO.

Only thing I can think of that might justify this line is the pats blew the Fins out on MNF a few years back. However that game was like a 3 point game at half and the Pats blocked a field goal for a TD and a Punt for a TD. That game was just absurd.

Redskins are gonna beat the midgets in week 1!!!!!!!!!

GL this year CM!

good write up CM.

Adding some more predictions:


Best ATS team   -   Detroit Lions  (Thinking 11-5)

Worst ATS team   -   Philadelphia Eagles   (too much public hype)

Most OVERS    -    New England Patriots   (no defense, big offense)

Most UNDERS   -    Seattle Seahawks  (crappy division, no QB)

Great write up.  Good luck.

yea it does if your talking about skill level and about   being the best QB in the league  and it has nothing to do with his receivers , he just plain sucks at throwing the ball down field , he's not even close to manning,  rivers rogers ,breze , big ben   i can keep going on .

by now the whole league should have caught up with this,   thats why tthe pats will never  beat the jets

Rex Ryans dont have to be a genuis  its not a big area to defend when every pass is 0-10 yds .

and you can't be great or an MVP,  if you are the  big reason why your team has lost their last 3 post season games 2 of 3  at home,  all favored  2 games DDATS favorites  all losers SU

any another QB would be typecast as a loser and a choker but not HORIZONTAL TOM he's the media darling .

Haters gonna hate.

It doesn't matter how you do it...it just matters if you do it.

Brady has three Super Bowls...what other active QB has that?

He is still 14-5 in the postseason...that's pretty freakin good.

114 TD's and 25 INT's in the past three years. 

Who gives a shit how he does it...the Patriots are always among the 3 highest scoring teams in the league...and for the most part it has been without the slightest hint of a running back.  He was 5th in Yards Per Attempt last year...he was 8th in Passing Yards. 

Statistically speaking, Tom Brady is the best QB in the league.  The lack of a running game and pathetic defense has killed them in the playoffs the past couple years.

forget stats  his recent history shows  he's been a loser when it counts 2004 long time ago and he wasnt the focal point of winning those super bowls it was their defense.

hater? i just cant stand people being plain stupid .

 go back and watch the first 10 minutes of the raven pats playoff game HORIZONTAL TOM single handedly put the pats out of the game with 3 turnovers in three consecutive possesions, , he fuckin sucked he was the worst QB in the entire playoffs hands down  , anyone else would have been lambasted

. last year sanchez made the plays at the key times,  he was clutch  outplayed HORIZONTAL TOM who gaged again , watch the fuckin   games and stop making excuses for him

 you've just bought in to all the media hype  and stupid on air dopes that have too much air time,  with nothing to say other than to play kissy face with SOUR PUSS BILL and HORIZOMTAL TOM .

Nice job on these breakdowns. 
I'm not sure why you are so high on ATL this year.  They're going from a run-first squad to a passing offense and have an aging TE and a couple of rookie receivers out there.  Turner 'no longer the Burner' is slowing down and doesn't offer much in the passing game anyways.  I think ATL will struggle somewhat.  They should still make the playoffs as a wild-card but to me NO is a significantly better team in that division. 

Either way, good luck this season!!!  Kick some ass!

You my friend are a retard. He was 5th in 20+ yard throws and 10th in 40+ yard throws. Either way, you obviously never saw him play in 2007 when he torched every defense in the league short, middle and deep. Also, the Pats receiving core is built around short possession receivers like Welker and Branch and his other 2 big weapons are both Tight Ends. He no longer has the deep threat in Randy Moss.

Please watch some football before you start spewing garbage that doesn't make sense.

As for the OP, the Pats defense will not suck this year. They have a revamped D line, solid LB and DB core and and new scheme build around attacking the QB. You, as a "Pats fan" should know this.

Also agree with Bodio that NO is the superior team in that division.

Michael Turner is still a damn good option at RB though...nobody will disagree with that I would assume.

Matt Ryan has continued to progress each year...and Julio Jones (Julio Thomas in Madden '12 according to Gus Johnson) will only help this offense

Tony Gonzalez is definitely on the older end of things...but still a top 10 tight end right?

Defense is solid throughout...and Mike Smith is the most underrated coach in the league.  I like them better than the Saints RIGHT NOW

[Quote: Originally Posted by nepatriots_12]

You my friend are a retard. He was 5th in 20+ yard throws and 10th in 40+ yard throws. Either way, you obviously never saw him play in 2007 when he torched every defense in the league short, middle and deep. Also, the Pats receiving core is built around short possession receivers like Welker and Branch and his other 2 big weapons are both Tight Ends. He no longer has the deep threat in Randy Moss.

Please watch some football before you start spewing garbage that doesn't make sense.

As for the OP, the Pats defense will not suck this year. They have a revamped D line, solid LB and DB core and and new scheme build around attacking the QB. You, as a "Pats fan" should know this.

Also agree with Bodio that NO is the superior team in that division.
[/Quote

why are some of these idiots putting their "predictions" on your thread.. tell them to fuck off and start their own "prediction" threads..

AFC EAST

New York Jets 11-5  (11-5 in 2010)  

I like the addition of Plaxico Burress strangely enough.  I hate the fact that I think the Jets are going to win the division.  The defensive line will be the absolute biggest question mark going into the season...as the loss of Taylor and Ellis will be huge.  They also benefit from having the AFC West on the schedule this year.  Toughest part will be around Thanksgiving where they play the Pats on the Sunday Night before...and then fly to Denver for the Thursday Night game. 

Finished 8-8...off by 3 wins.  The defensive line was an issue for the most part...but not as big as the issue of the offense.  I was dead on as far as the Thanksgiving weeks being the defining period for the Jets.  They lost to the Patriots...then on the short week lost to Tebow-mania.

New England Patriots  10-6   (14-2 in 2010)

There will be no questions about their offense once again.  Brady is the best QB in the league, they have solid depth at RB, 2 very solid TE's, and possibly the best OL in football.  The problem is their defense, and specifically their defensive backs or lack thereof.  Releasing Brandon Meriweather is a very interesting decision...and I dont like it.  Tough schedule as well, most notably coming out of the bye week with the Steelers, Jets, Giants, and then a short week heading into Philly.  Still one of the best teams in the league though, there is no doubt about that

Finished 13-3...off by 3 wins.  Was dead on with just about everything I said.  Offense had no questions what so ever...but the defense was the critical failure.  Coming out of the bye week was their struggling point as well because it lead to two of their three losses.

Miami Dolphins  6-10   (7-9 in 2010)

They were a below average team last year...and in the offseason they did absolutely NOTHING to improve their position.  As a matter of fact they gave up 1300 yards of rushing production in Williams and Brown which was only good for 21st last season.  Chad Henne just doesn't have a lot of options on the offensive side of the ball outside of Brandon Marshall.  Not much coming in for the rookie class...I just can't see them getting many wins this year.

Finished 6-10...dead right!!  Offense was better than expected due to the resurgence of Reggie Bush.  Chad Henne was out for the season early...and although Matt Moore hadn't done much before this year...he put up roughly the same numbers as Chad Henne would have.

Buffalo Bills  5-11  (4-12 in 2010)

Really solid defense once again.  They have a decent defensive line, but just couldn't stop the run last year.  I love the defensive backs however, and they won't get blown out of many games from what I can see.  The reason why I can't bump them up too many wins over last year is because they have to face a bunch of tough running backs and running teams.  If Ryan Fitzpatrick can limit his mistakes...they could bump up to 6 wins.

Finished 6-10...off by 1 win, except they were able to get to 6 wins like I predicted from a hot start.  In the first 8 weeks, Ryan Fitzpatrick had 14 touchdowns and 7 interceptions...in the last 8 weeks Fitzy only threw 10 touchdowns compared with 16 interceptions.  That's how you go from 5-2 to 1-8


OVERALL....I GIVE MY PREDICTIONS ON THE AFC EAST AN A-

AFC NORTH

Pittsburgh Steelers  14-2  (12-4 in 2010)

Best record in the NFL this year will belong to the Steel City.  I have them losing one game against the Ravens, and in Week 8 to the Patriots.  Other than that they have a cupcake schedule that will provide them with an easy first round bye.  No drama with Big Ben this offseason...didn't lose anything in free agency...Antonio Brown is a big play threat in the special teams.  I am very big on the Steelers this season.

Finished 12-4...off by 2 wins.  What was most impressive was the fact that their 4 losses all came against playoff teams.  Really the only two losses that I was off on was the Texans and Niners...who were the big surprises of the year.  A first round bye was the key for this team however, as it would have allowed them to get healthy.

Baltimore Ravens  10-6  (12-4 in 2010)

Bumped the Steelers up two wins...bumping the Ravens down a couple wins.  Only real reason is that the defense is a little bit older of course, and I'm not crazy about their overall depth.  They have managed to work through injuries on the defensive side before, but if there is one this year it could really hurt them.  Luckily they do have a nice schedule to put together enough wins to make the playoffs.

Finished 12-4...off 2 wins.  They were pretty much the antithesis of the Steelers.  All 4 of their losses came against non-playoff teams, and all losses were to sub-.500 teams!  Great home record lead them to the first round bye.


Cleveland Browns 4-12  (5-11 in 2010)

A year of experience under the belt of McCoy will help...but Hillis is the lucky recipient of the Madden Curse this season, and the Browns  have BY FAR the worst defensive line in the NFL.  In the AFC North with 4 games against ground and pound teams like the Ravens and Steelers, that's not good.  Steinbach being hurt on the offensive line will cost them quite a bit as well.

Finished 4-12...DEAD RIGHT!!  Literally everything I said about the Browns was true.  They finished 30th in the NFL against the rush...and Colt McCoy didn't give them anything. 

Cincinnati Bengals  3-13  (4-12 in 2010)

They have some really solid young talent, but this is a rebuilding year.  They might be able to hang tight in a bunch of games, but I can't see them pulling out very many.

Finished 9-7...off 6 wins.  One of my bigger misses in these predictions.  Really solid young talent was there...and 10 games were decided by a touchdown or less, so I was right on about the hanging tight in close games.  Dalton played huge...but look at their wins and look at the records of the teams they beat.  Nobody.

OVERALL I GIVE MYSELF A B ON THESE PREDICTIONS...BECAUSE OF MY MISS ON THE BUNGALS

AFC SOUTH

Houston Texans 11-5  (6-10 in 2010)

Terrible year last year for a team that has a ton of talent.  Their defense was bad, although their offense gave them a chance to win every week.  Matt Schaub needs to take the next step this year...Arian Foster needs to continue his success from last year.  What I like best about this team is the speed on defense.  Brandon Harris is a very solid draft pick and should make an immediate impact for the worst secondary in the league last year. 

Finished 10-6...off 1 win.  Schaub was good while healthy...Arian Foster continued to be a beast running the ball...and the DEFENSE was one of the best in the NFL this year.  Unbelievable job considering the injuries they had to deal with.

Indianapolis Colts  9-7  (10-6 in 2010)

The questions about Peyton Manning aren't going to go away.  I do believe he will be back within the next couple of weeks, and Kerry Collins isn't a terrible replacement, but there are some serious question marks throughout the lineup.  Offensive line will rely on rookie Ijalana a lot to protect the blind side....cornerbacks are not terrible, but will face a lot of challenges this season...and if Peyton doesnt' come back for a while or if he gets re-injured it will not be a fun year.

Finished 2-14...off 7 wins.  Prediction was based on Peyton being able to come back...and that last sentence that I posted pretty much summed up the season. 

Tennessee Titans  7-9  (6-10 in 2010)

Chris Johnson is back, and there is no better news for the Titans heading into this  year.  I'm not a huge fan of Hasselbeck for this team as their QB...and I have a feeling Jake Locker will be getting some action before too long.  Love their offensive line, which will give CJ plenty of room to run...but their defensive line is below average.  20th against the rush last year probably won't improve this year.  Akeem Ayers does have a decent shot to be Defensive ROY.

Finished 9-7...off 2 wins.  20th against the run went down to 24th...and Chris Johnson struggled early.  Hasselbeck did a decent enough job, which was what gave them a couple extra wins.  Akeem Ayers started off alright, but stumbled late.

Jacksonville Jaguars  6-10  (8-8 in 2010)

I don't know why I'm against the Jags this year.  Statistically they were one of the worst teams last year in just about everything except for rushing yards...but still went 8-8.  Nice offseason picking up Blaine Gabbert and Paul Posluszny.  My biggest reason is that MJD has been near the top of the league in carries for the past couple seasons, and that HAS to be taking a toll on him.  He was 8th in carries...and missed two games.  He had career lows in TD's and Receptions.

Finished 5-11...off 1 win.  Pretty much right on with this prediction.  This season is what the Jaguars should have been all along.  Great rushing team, but just can't throw the ball.  Should really try and get Blackmon in the draft.  They need someone to throw the ball to.

OVERALL...I WILL GIVE MYSELF A B+ ON THE AFC SOUTH.  PRETTY DAMN GOOD

AFC WEST


San Diego Chargers  12-4 (9-7 in 2010)

Top 5 QB...Top 5 OL...Top 5 TE...and solid WR's.  Defense isn't spectacular as far as big names...but they are solid all around and should be pretty close to what they did last year.  It's do or die time for the Chargers...the good news is that they have 3 winnable home games in the first four weeks.  If they can't get off to a good start...and win a bunch of games in the Oakland, Chicago, Denver, Buffalo, Jacksonville stretch then they should just clean house.

Finished 8-8...off 4 wins.  Tons of talent...no production.  Simply baffles the mind.  Top 10 offense...and a pretty good defense.  Rivers threw for 4600 yards.  But I hit the nail on the head with that stretch of schedule where they ended up losing to Oakland, Chicago, and Denver.  If they win 2 of those 3 games like they should have, they are in the playoffs.

Kansas City Chiefs  8-8 (10-6 in 2010)

Three out of their five non-division road games are brutal (New England, NY Jets, and Indianapolis).  Jamaal Charles isn't going to sneak up on anybody this year.  Charlie Weis is gone.  They still don't have any decent receivers.  They are extremely thin at OL with the loss of Waters.  I just don't see them doing anything close to what they did last year.

Finished 7-9...off 1 win.  Typical average team that beat bad teams and lost to good teams.  Couldn't overcome their unbelievably shitty start.  Jamaal Charles really didn't sneak up on anyone this year.

Denver Broncos  5-11 (4-12 in 2010)

Defense murdered this team last year as they gave up almost 30 points per game.  Scheduling wasn't as kind to them this season...as they have to face high scoring teams like the Packers and Patriots.  They lose Jabar Gaffney and his 60+ receptions...and the OL really isn't as strong as I would like to see for a team that really needs to rush the ball well.  I will bump them up one win over last year simply because I can't see their defense being that terrible again.

Finished 8-8...off 3 wins.  If it wasn't for Tebow-mania this team would have been 5-11.  Their defense improved exponentially, and the rushing game was the best in the league.  So in reality it wasn't Tebow at all...but people love to give him the credit.

Oakland Raiders  5-11  (8-8 in 2010)

Jason Campbell did well last year and didnt make that many mistakes...but we all know that this team lives and dies with the ground game.  I'm dropping them down 3 wins because they were 2nd in the league last year against the pass.  Something tells me that will NOT stay the same.  Looking at this secondary and cornerbacks, I would be very surprised if they can be in the top 15.

Finished 8-8...off 3 wins.  Secondary went from 2nd in the league to 27th...so I nailed that one.  But the offense did a lot better than what I expected...and they went 5-3 on the road this year.

AFC PLAYOFFS

1.  Pittsburgh Steelers 

2.  San Diego Chargers 

3.  New York Jets 

4.  Houston Texans 

5.  New England Patriots 

6.  Baltimore Ravens 


WILD CARD ROUND

New York Jets   def.   Baltimore Ravens

New England Patriots    def.   Houston Texans

DIVISIONAL ROUND

Pittsburgh Steelers    def.   New England Patriots

San Diego Chargers   def.   New York Jets


AFC CHAMPIONSHIP

Pittsburgh Steelers    def.   San Diego Chargers


FOUR OUT OF THE SIX PLAYOFF TEAMS ISN'T BAD.