2024-2025 NFL Season Predictions

What is going on fam!! Back from WSOP, and football season is upon us!! I just got back from Vegas where I made my preseason futures bets at Circa. Last year was particularly brutal because I was on the 49ers all season long with futures (preseason, week 4, 7, and 11) and they lost in the SB. So, we try again....

NFL 2024-2025 Season Predictions

This year, all of the hype is on the chiefs and their three-peat. The chiefs looked very beatable last year, losing regular season games to the Lions, Broncos, Eagles, Packers, Bills, and Raiders. They should have lost the Ravens if the Ravens would have stuck to the gameplay and run the ball. Most certainly, they should have lost in the SuperBowl where they were dominated all game. They had not scored in the first half. Jawan Taylor, the most penalized tackle in football did not get a single holding call on Bosa. If it wasn’t for a muffed punt that set them up on the 16 yard line to get a TD in the third quarter, who knows how that game would have ended.

The chiefs lost key players on defense this offseason—departures of L’jarius Snead and Willie Gay. Steve Spagnola is a genius and top 3 defense coordinator. The Chiefs winning the SB last year was just as much based on him scheming excellent defensive plans as it was Mahomes doing what he does in the post-season. But I think their defense is suspect at best this year, lacking depth at edge and corner and I think they could be exposed if they play a playoff caliber AFC team with a good offense like the Bengals. They’re receiving core is also very young and unproven. They have speed, their guys are small and have been shown in camp to get jammed off the line of scrimmage (Xavier Worthy). They just cut Toney, and signed washed up veteran JuJu Smith Schuster to help Skyy Moore, Justin Watson, and Marquise Brown? What happens with Rashee Rice and his legal troubles?

This year, my long shot futures bets are predicated on the chiefs underperforming and losing to the Bengals or Jets in the Playoffs. 

Final Four predictions: Bengals, Jets, Eagles, Lions

Teams that drop off: Ravens, Bills, 49ers, Cowboys

Wild Card: Browns

I would recommend everyone check out Warren Sharp and the stuff he has on his E-book about the teams and scheduling, rest advantage/disadvantage

How accurate is Warren Sharps model for determining strength of schedule?

Looking at last seasons model:

-of the 15 teams predicted to have the easiest 2023 schedules, 11 finished with winning records (Saints, Colts, Texans, Lions, Jaguars, Steelers, Packers, Bucs, 49ers, and Bengals)

Of the 15 teams predicted to have the hardest 2023 schedules, only 5 finished with a winning record (Bills, Chiefs, Dolphins, Cowboys, Vikings)

-of the 7 teams forecast to have winning records and predicted to have easier than average schedules, ALL SEVEN had winning records (49ers, Bengals, Lions, Jaguars, Saints, Browns, and Steelers). 

Therefore, is strength of schedule important? YES.

-of the 15 teams that actually had the easiest 2023 schedules, 10 went to the playoffs (Cowboys, Packers, Texans, Bills, Dolphins, Bucs, Eagles, Lions, 49ers, and Chiefs), with 9-of-15 going over their win total.

-of the 17 teams that actually had the hardest 2023 schedules, only 4 went to the playoffs (Steelers, Browns, Ravens, and Rams) with only 4-of-17 going over their win total. 

TRYING TO OVERACHIEVE AGAINST A BRUTAL SCHEDULE RARELY HAPPENS (4 out of 17 in 2023)

Final Four: AFC and NFC Championship Games

Bengals

The Bengals have a top 5 QB in Joe Burrow who has beaten Mahomes in the past and has been to a Superbowl. They have an improved offensive line and are strong at tackle after they signed Trent Brown from the Patriots and upgrade at right tackle to protect Burrow. They have Orlando Brown Jr. who used to pass block for Mahomes. They downgraded at RB going from Mixon to Moss but I don’t expect much of a drop off in production. In general, I think Superbowl caliber teams need excellent QB play (check), a solid offensive and defensive line (check), and a good defense (check). Lou Anarumo is one of the best defensive coordinators in the league. His ability to disguise his defenses and send pressure always gives opposing teams trouble. The Bengals sign Sheldon Rankins to the interior which should bolster the line, which is already elite with Trey Hendrickson and Sam Hubbard. The biggest question mark this team faces is Ja’Marr Chase and how long he is expected to hold out without a new contract and their sub-par secondary which has been their Achilles heel. If they can stay healthy and their secondary can be mediocre at best, I see the Bengals advancing to the playoffs with a shot at taking down the Chiefs despite their very tough division.

The Bengals have the 6th easiest strength of schedule and a rest net DISADVANTAGE of -2 days. 

Jets

See pre-season write up. Massively improved offensive line (top 5 graded by PFF) with a top 3 defense that has pro-bowlers at every level: All pro DT Quinnen Williams, CJ Mosley and Quincy Williams at LB, and Sauce Gardner at CB. Aaron Rodgers at QB, Breece Hall at RB, and Garrett Wilson with a new and improved WR room should be able to move the ball and manage games. The defense, which is a top unit,   will hopefully be able to shine even more this year now that they know they won’t constantly have to be on the field due to turnovers and short drives that were engineered by Zach Wilson last year.  Yes, Hassan Reddick’s absence in camp has been a major distraction, especially since the Eagles got Bryce Huff from the Jets but the Jets still have multiple capable edge rushers who are all first rounders in Jermaine Johnson, Will McDonald, and Talk McKinley.

-The Jets have the 4th easiest strength of schedule and the 9th best rest ADVANTAGE of +5 days.

-The last time Aaron Rodgers had a top 5 defense he won the SB

-Aaron Rodgers career record as a starter when defense allows fewer than 20 points is 81-10

-Since 2016 Rodgers record as a starter when defense allows fewer than 20 points is 35-2 (2023 Jets defense allowed 20.9 points/game)

Eagles:

My pick to win the division and conference. Yes, they lost Jason Kelce but everyone should look back at their season last year. They started the year 10-1 and finished an abysmal 1-5, losing to 49ers, Cowboys, Seahawks, Cardinals and the Giants. Their issues were with coaching on both offensive and defensive side of the ball. I believe this has been corrected with the signing of Kellen Moore and Vic Fangio. I had a large futures on the Chargers last year that did not pan out but if you’ll recall Moore was the OC for the Chargers. Herbert talked about how excellent is scheme was and his ability to gameplay and make life easier for the QB. Moore brings in a ton of motion that was lacking in this eagles offense last year. The Eagles still have a top graded O-line (#2 by PFF I believe). They signed Mechi Becton from the Jets, and retain Jordan Maliata, Landon Dickerson, and Pro Bowl RT Lane Johnson. Cam Jurgens has filled in the center position and everyone on the team has talked about how well he has done in camp filling in for Kelce. I believe the Eagles will have the #1 or #2 offense in the NFL this season behind only to the Detroit Lions.

The biggest question mark with the Eagles is on defense. They add Vic Fangio as their coordinator who was run out of Miami. They have first round picks Jordan Davis and Jalen Carter, both from Georgia, both massive, quick interior lineman. Carter should have won defensive rookie of the year last year. They added Bryce Huff at EDGE from the NYJ and got rid of Hassan Reddick who has been a contract headache and massive distraction. They have major question marks at inside linebacker, but they added Devin White from TB who is a former pro-bowler and will start Zack Baun or Jeremiah Trotter Jr. Instead of former first round pick Nakobe Dean who has struggled in camp. They signed CJ Gardner Johnson which improves the safety position and drafted Quinyon Mitchell from Toledo who has been playing outside and in the slot—I think he could be the best defensive back in the draft and could be the difference in the Eagles secondary year, as Bradberry has been demoted to safety and was a massive liability last year. 

The Eagles have the 9th easiest strength of schedule and the 4th best rest ADVANTAGE of +12 days

Lions:

A team that is headed in the right direction with an excellent quarterback and a solid offensive and defensive line (ingredients of a good SB caliber team). The lions entire offense is predicated around their offensive line which is the #1 graded line by PFF. The lost Jonah Jackson but arguably upgraded at his position and return Frank Ragnow and Pennie Sewell, arguably the best center and tackle in all of the NFL. They are also loaded at skill positions and Jahmyr Gibbs will probably have an even bigger year this year than his rookie campaign. They retain Amon-Ra at WR who went for 119 reception and 1500 yards last year. Sam LaPorta is the top 5 tight ended in the league and arguably top 3 vs Kelce and Kittle. They key for this team is going to be their defense and how their linebacker and secondary play. Last year they were graded was the #31 secondary and got torched by the 49ers in the NFC Championship game when they allowed the 49ers to come back from that major deficit. They added SB champion Carlton Davis from the Bucs and drafted Terrion Arnold from Alabama with their first round pick.

The Lions strength of schedule is the 11th hardest strength of schedule (#21) and the 10th worst rest DISADVANTAGE of -1 days

Ravens

I believe that the Ravens will have a massive drop off this year for several reasons. So what that they got Derrick Henry. It won’t matter if they cannot block for him. The Ravens lost three starting offensive lineman, which is HUGE. Their line isn’t even ranked in the top half of the league, preseason PFF ranking has them #25. They tackle lost Morgan Moses and guard John Simpson to the Jets, and they lost their pro-bowl guard Kevin Zeitler, who will start for the Lions. Lamar, despite his individual awards continues to choke in the post season and has yet to go to the SB. Their defense lost DC Mike McDonald to the Seahawks, and I believe that he will win coach of the year. He was the mastermind behind this top rated defense last year and I see the defense regressing in a tough division and conference. They also lost ILB Patrick Queen to the steelers, he was the anchor in the middle with Roquon Smith. The Ravens have one of the best safeties in the league in Kyle Hamilton, and if Marcus Williams and Marlon Humphrey can stay healthy they will have one of the better secondaries in the league—although I still expect a huge drop off from last years defense with the departure of Mike McDonald and Patrick Queen.

Ravens have the #4th toughest strength of schedule but the leagues #1 best rest ADVANTAGE +21 days.

Bills

Josh Allen continues to struggle in the post season. This team is plagued by injury. Moreover, they lost so many key players this offseason including starting WRs Stefan Diggs and Gabe Davis, edge rusher Leonard Floyd to SF, starting pro bowl safeties Micah Hyde, Jordan Poyer, starting corner Tre’Davious White and Matt Milano, their starting pro-bowl linebacker just tore his bicep and is out for the season. It certainly doesn’t help that they play in a tough division against the Jets and Dolphins either. Just too many key pieces gone for this team to make a deep run in the playoffs or be a SB contender in my opinion.

The Bills play the #10th toughest schedule but have the #10th best rest ADVANTAGE at +5 days

49ers

My team to win the SB last year, I followed this team like a beat writer. How can a team go from SB contender to falling off? The 49ers are an elite organization but they are surrounded by distractions this off season. Trent Williams and BA are both holding out. The biggest problem with the 49ers is their offensive line. They have the #24 graded O-line WITH Trent Williams. Could you imagine the team without him? They did nothing this offseason to address this issue. Spencer Burford is a massive liability and RG (he missed a key black on the last play of the SB on Chris Jones which gave him a free rush at Purdy). Colt McKivitz is a liability and Aaron Banks has a chronic, lingering foot injury. None of this is good because as I mentioned earlier SB caliber teams need excellent QB play and a solid O-line and D-line. Reports from camp are that Purdy has struggled. He threw an INT in the preseason game that he played and threw for 4 interceptions in one day at practice. Despite the multiple pro-bowlers and skill position guys, this team won’t be successful without Trent Williams and an improved line (I would argue they downgraded). The defensive line also lost Clelin Farrel to the Commanders and Chase Young to the Saints, both guys were productive last year. Will the addition of Leonard Floyd be enough? Dre Greenlaw is coming off an achilles injury and all pro Talanoa Hufanga is coming off an ACL tear. All of these previous injuries, lack of improves on the O-line, distractions from contract disputes from Williams and Auiyuk and the massive rest disadvantage give me pause when looking at this time. I think these problems will be exposed when they face the Jets on MNF following their SB hangover. The massive rest disadvantage highlighted below is why they had 26 injuries in camp and cancelled one of their joint practices.

The 49ers SOS is #18 but it doesn’t help that for the second year in a row, they have the LEAGUE WORST rest DISADVANTAGE at -21 days

Cowboys

Where to begin? No homer analysis here. We lost Tyron Smith to the Jets and Tyler Biadasz to the Commanders. Remember the importance of the O-line and D-line? The Cowboys downgraded in both categories. We have a rookie starting at LT which will be a problem, and we also have a rookie center. Continuity among the O-line is key and the Cowboys don’t have this. We have a very suspect RB room, after overpaying Zeke Elliot a few years ago, now we pick up Dalvin Cook and that is supposed to help the team? Outside of Cee Dee Lamb, this team really is lacking in big playmakers and skilled perimeter guys. Our defense lost DC Dan Quinn, edge rusher rusher and starter Dorance Armstrong. Daron Bland will be out 8 weeks with a foot injury and we have no depth at linebacker or in the secondary. I almost forgot to mention our first round bust, Mazi Smith. If the offense struggles and cant carry this team, do not expect the Cowboys defense to be able to generate the turnovers that they’ve been able generate the past 3 season. I think this is going to be a major down year for the Cowboys and plays into futures bets of Eagles winning the division (-110 when I took them) and Cowboys win total UNDER 10.5 (-160). I see the floor as 7 wins and think the boys win 9 games if we are lucky and sneak in to the playoffs in a weaker conference. 

Dallas faces the #11th toughest schedule in the league, but has a rest ADVANTAGE of +2 days

Looks good but i think Phil. is a drop off team this year + Dallas still performs but GL TY esp. on the Jets as we massively agree there.

@keven vanlith

Dallas won’t perform. Not enough skill guys. They  will double Cee Dee Lamb and then who can BEA them? Brandon Cooks? Jaylon Tolbert? They just signed Dalvin Cook, he was good like 4 years ago.

I’m from Dallas and live here and every year the Cowboys are over hyped. Despite winning 12 games the last 3 years I really think one of the best bets is Dallas UNDER season wins of 10.5.

Great info, thanks for all the research and time you put into this!

GL  this coming  season much respect mah man @Ih8coldweather

   &  

@mrusso

@Macwestie1

Mac, mah man, good luck this upcoming season 

Great ink....Ravens fan....

Simpson will be better than Queen.....

O line is huge...but not playing together will hurt them early...

@bigred84

Good stuff you put together, thanks.

Strong write up regardless of which side I agree/disagree with, thanks for putting together.

Totally with you on the cowboys, a lot of noise and I'm not seeing 11 wins from them at all, might be my favorite O/U wins for all teams.

Have a hard time seeing the Jets showcase and put it all together.. always something with them and I'm not sold on their coach and a QB coming off such an injury. Breece is unbelievable so I'm watching from afar to start and will cap accordingly. If the stars align, +2200 has a chance

Very nice writeups with us not seeing eye to on 2 teams but that is cool as all the rest look really good to me.

Since you were in the WSOP in LV this year + considering your obvious deep NFL knowledge + the type of money you bet on the Jets this year.....My Q. for you is are you in the Circa survivor or the Million contests along with the WG super contest + or Gold contests this year + have you participated in previous years contests?

"This year, all of the hype is on the chiefs and their three-peat. The chiefs looked very beatable last year, losing regular season games to the Lions, Broncos, Eagles, Packers, Bills, and Raiders. They should have lost the Ravens if the Ravens would have stuck to the gameplay and run the ball. Most certainly, they should have lost in the SuperBowl where they were dominated all game. "

You need to factor in coaching and special teams when handicapping otherwise you end up saying things like the team that lost "dominated" the game.

@C-70Blues

 Shanahan outcoached Reid the entire game and got the Niners out to a 10-0 lead on a trick play where Jennings threw it across the field to McCafrey on a gadget play. I know because I was at the game.

Jawan Taylor, a chronic, serial holder got zero holding calls in the game vs Bosa, literally dragged him down every play. YouTube Taylor vs Bosa and watch the film.

A muffed punt gave KC a short field and put the ball on the 16 yard line and they scored the next play. That completely swung the momentum. Nobody is denying the chiefs coaching greatness. I am a Reid fan and I specifically talk about Spagnola in my write up. They were outcoached by Shanahan and Steve Wilkes all game and it is a damn shame that Wilkes was the fall guy for the Niners loss last season. He coached the game of his life as DC in the SB.

I also talk about his big of a loss it was for the Ravens to lose Mike McDonald who I have winning coach of the year, so not sure where you get the notion that I don’t factor coaching into my handicap.

@keven vanlith

I am not but will be next year. Talked to a few guys who got a proxy service, I will do it next year. NFL is like a second full time job for me during the year and requires my attention. I will try to post my futures bets and props, so you can see my championship exacta matchups that are huge long shot odds that will allow me to hedge some of my positions including my Jets future.

this year I am big on a Jets/Eagles Super Bowl, can also see a Bengals/Eagles or Bengals/Lions Super Bowl. Will be interesting to see how the chiefs perform. 

Before the Chiefs recovered that punt the score was 10-6. When a team leads by 4 points they are not dominating the game. And I wasn't at the game but I was on the right side.

@C-70Blues

lol. WOW. Congrats!!! You won a bet. You were on the right side! 

do you have anything meaningful to add to my thread and this discussion or you still want kudos for picking the chiefs..

@C-70Blues

I just realized you’re the same clown who was arguing with my on the other thread making fun of Rodgers and the Jets. 

like I said, anyone can bet chiefs to win SB at 5/1. It takes some research, variance, and balls/gamble to put serious money on a long shot future like the jets.

TY IH8....too bad your not in the contests as i see you doing very well there but will see you in them next year as i am in all 4 (Circa + Westgate) this year entering on july 11th (KEV KOVERS)

Funny you mentioned exacta SB matchups as i placed 2 while entering survivor + the Circa Million at Circa.....for only 100 each but the payoffs are nice.....JETS defeat lions +16500 and JETS defeat packers +22500. 

I could not resist that packer play as that would be a dream matchup for the pundits, networks ect. + with a little luck they could have been there last year so it is not all that far fetched.

Anyway enjoy your input here + will be watching for more esp. involving our J.E.T.S.

BTW i played in 2 WSOP main events also in 2014 with 3 others  events + 2015 just the main and it was so much fun.

Where do we find more on the SOS?

@keven vanlith

 Yeah I saw the circa survivor episodes on YouTube this year and they were phenomenal. Hoping to enter next year with my brother.

I haven’t looked into the WG super contest but I have heard of it. 

love the WSOP. I play  decent number of events every summer. This past summer I played 15 events and cashed 4 times. I played the main event as well, but unfortunately did not cash.

I wasn't arguing with you about your Jets future wager. I just don't understand it for several reasons.

1) You're assuming the Jets defense is going to be just as good as last season.

2) You're assuming Aaron Rodgers is going to play like he did in 2010 (he is 1-4 in conference finals as a starter with his only win coming against the 2010 Bears, led by QB's Jay Cutler and Caleb Hanie).

3) Robert Saleh has yet to coach a playoff game and you have him winning the Super Bowl. (Personally, I don't trust any coach from the Kyle Shanahan coaching tree as he is a guy who should have 3 super bowl rings, one with Atlanta and two with San Fran, yet he has none).

Good luck. I'll be back in the post-season to show you guys how it's done.