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2H betting system - 10/12/2008

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Posts: 188

alwaylose

Veteran

Joined: Dec, 2005

Posts: 1668

Posted: Oct. 13, 2008 - 10:13 PM ET #176

NJ Porky

2nd half NY -6.5 O/U 23

what will it be Thanks

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success1

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Joined: Jan, 2005

Posts: 2593

Posted: Oct. 13, 2008 - 10:17 PM ET #177

bump

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NJPorky

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Joined: Jun, 2005

Posts: 1693

Posted: Oct. 13, 2008 - 10:19 PM ET #178

.No Play on the Monday night...Giants/Browns...see everyone next Sunday for more NFL system plays!!!!

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Nuts4theball

Prospect

Joined: Nov, 2007

Posts: 430

Posted: Oct. 13, 2008 - 10:21 PM ET #179

Thanks for all of your work Porky!!

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mvp12331233

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Joined: Mar, 2007

Posts: 2468

Posted: Oct. 13, 2008 - 10:24 PM ET #180

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bigirondawg

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Joined: Oct, 2005

Posts: 3439

Posted: Oct. 13, 2008 - 11:21 PM ET #181

Looks good, NJPorky... I'm surprised that the totals don't improve in CFB with the higher middle. Looks like they actually performed worse!

Last week was my first week actually playing these games in CFB... didn't play the pro games, though. I think you're definitely on to something here.

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Rounders550

Covers Rehab

Joined: Nov, 2007

Posts: 23

Posted: Oct. 15, 2008 - 11:48 AM ET #182

Quote Originally Posted by NJPorky:

That's a total of :

YTD: 19 - 7

Win %: 73%

Units: +11.3

So every time their is a 10 point middle or more, just take whoever was tha favorite befor the game started.....Interesting as I think this might be the way to go in the NFL as these are paid professionals compared to the young college players....

I like to see you came to your senses PPorky. Please give credit where credit is do since I came up with this "Hybrid" system last week. Please read the post below that was posted in another one of Porky's threads from 10/9.

Quote:

Porky, read me last post and it explains exactly how you are winning/losing so far this year. You lose the games where you decide to take the dog when you should be taking the favorite.

Quote:

In the first 5 weeks, the favorite has "lost" 10 or more points for the game a total of 17 times. If you continued taking the favorite for the second half, you would have went 11-6 (65%) (which is what you have been doing). Now on the flip side, the games where the favorite was losing at half and received a 10 point discount on the game line was much more successful. There were a total of 6 games so far this year that fell into that situation and the results were 5-1 (83%).

After getting a better understanding of your system, it is statistically successful to stay with the favorite for the 2h when there is a 10 point "discount" in either direction (this is what you have been successful on so far this season bc more games fell into this situation).

You seem to be missing the strategy of taking the favorite when losing at halftime and getting a 10 point or more discount (83% success rate).

I did very well last season using the discount method on the o/u's for ncaa fb so I expanded the study this year to find a winning system for spreads for nfl and ncaa.

So again, after research and getting a better understanding about both systems, we both would have a better winning % if we incorporated a bit of both.

The games that would have lost in my system were the ones when I would have taken the dogs in the 2h when getting a "discount" of 10+ when in fact , I should have jumped on the favorite to contiune to beat on the dog.

The games that would have lost in your syetm were the games where you stayed with the dog for the second half when the team getting the discount was the favorite of 10+ and the favorite ended up winning the 2h bet.

So the hybrid sytem (yours and mine) says to bet the favorite in the 2h whenever there is a 10 point "discount"/"middle" for either of the teams. Either the Favorite will continue to pound the dog (supposed to happen) or the favorite will make a comeback in the 2h and cover the spread (expected to happen),

so stop being such a box and listen to what I am saying. and if you continue to be a little fbitch about it, i hope others that read this use it to their benefit and make a few bucks.