31-11-1 since 2020

nfl totals 37 or less are 31-11-1 under the total

vegas 

tenn 

waite until game day

@dubuquefan

 Bol this week

I'd tread very lightly on trends in general but especially ones that span the Covid year where starters and coaches were forced to miss a lot of games.

I have it as 25-16 Under just in the last two years in my database (16-12 Under in 2023 and 9-4 Under in 2022). That doesn't jive with the 11 losses over four years posted but depending on where your closing Total is coming from there could be a difference in how many qualifiers there are. Either way it may be a good idea to look into where that number is coming from. 

Good Luck no matter what you take.

@TumblingDice75

 Yeah I don't even have to bother checking. I know that 31-11 is about as likely as a goldmine in Alaska

total<=37 and season>2010

62-104 under at killersports

Did you happen to check the last two or four years? I'm curious how big the gaps are between mine, what's posted, and a third party. 

Did a five-minute deeper look...

According to my data over the last two years, if you eliminate common sense Weeks 14 and on which is the December, January timeframe where weather has the most effect, teams are mathematically eliminated and play more of their young players, other teams are resting starters in the last week or two because they are locked into playoff positioning, and every team is banged up after a long season the qualifiers drop from 41 to 19 in Weeks 1-13. The record in those 19 drops to 12-7 Under. From there throw out the Jets games (who went 5-1 Under in six qualifiers) and the record over those two seasons goes from 12-7 Under to 7-6 Under.

So, from a 61% 25-16 to a just over breakeven 53.8% with just a tad of context.  

total<=37 and season>2022

28-54

total<=37 and season>2020

28-62

28 Unders and 54 Overs since 2022? 82 games in two years had a Total of 37 or less? That's not right. I'm not including this year's games into it so that would add some but not 41. Is it showing them twice per game?

yes sorry, this has to be divided by 2 forgot to put the qualifier D or F

total<=37 and season>=2020 and D

14-31

No problem. The only reason I knew that was probably the issue is because I've did it on my own database a few times. So that puts 2022 through 2023 at 27-14 Under compared to my 25-16 which could be the difference in where they pulled their closing Total from to get qualifiers or one of us has the total points scored in games off or they are including 2024 which I'm not.

Appreciate it Jowchoo. I'll double check scores on those 41 games now, why I like cross-referencing them a little at a time as they come up.  

Have you investigated SDQL protocol?  it allows you access to a 30+year data base over at killersports or GimmeTheDog

I'm not a trend user but have the ability to check them because my database includes all the normal information from official NFL stats but a lot of other info and notes that I can't get in those databases such as implied scores, coaches, wind speeds, injury notes, game notes, etc... Trends and stats alone can be deceptive without the context of the other information that tells the story behind those numbers. I use that part more than the actual statistics besides for power ranking/modeling construction and back-checking.

last year i got 16-9-1 under 37

if you go to under 36.5 and under i got 14-6-1

if you go to year 2021-2023 i have  22-8-1 under 36.5

you get diff lines like 37 could be 37.5 on some books

or 37.5 could be 37

let's play 36.5 under

thanks for the input guys

which games this week

31-9 if the total is UNDER 37 (not equal to).  both Ten/Mia and Cle/LV apply