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Following a perfect 3-0 performance last week, we are now 21-11-2 for the season, which is close to a 66% success rate. With 9 weeks in the book and 8 more to come, let’s see if we can close out the season on a good note. It all starts this week with 2 main picks, and a couple of secondary picks that will also be official plays, but that I like a little bit less than the first two.
PICK #1: Buffalo Bills +2.5 vs New Orleans Saints
Why do I always end up betting games involving the Buffalo Bills this year? I mentioned last week that I was 4-0 predicting the outcome of their games in 2017, so with another correct pick on Week #9 I’m now 5-0. Can we remain perfect?
I’ve only found arguments supporting the Bills, so it made the choice easy. First of all, you know I tend to fade teams coming off an easy win, whereas I also tend to back those who just suffered a tough-to-swallow or an embarrassing loss. Well, in this case we’ve got both occurrences.
On one side, you’ve got the Saints coming off an almost effortless 30-10 win over the Bucs, a game in which Tampa’s hopes of making a comeback vanished when quarterback Jameis Winston was knocked out of the game after one half.
Meanwhile, the Bills put out a pathetic performance against the Jets, turning the ball over three times and allowing 7 sacks to a Jets defense that had recorded just 11 sacks in the entire season thus far! Playing so badly on national television is certainly one of the main reasons why 70% of spread bets have gone on New Orleans so far. The Saints’ 6-game winning streak helps too!
The Bills are getting three extra days of rest after playing the Thursday night game, which is good news for them because they needed time to regroup. They will be looking to rebound in front of their home fans at New Era Field, where they are a perfect 4-0 this season. The players have adopted very well the “Defend our dirt” mantra that was installed by new head coach Sean McDermott. The organization hanged a big sign with this slogan on it near the Bills’ locker room. Each player has a jar full of rubber, sand and dirt picked up at New Era Field and their practice field.
I’m betting on Buffalo to keep its perfect record at home, or at worst to lose this match by 1 or 2 points.
PICK #2: Cleveland Browns +13 at Detroit Lions
I also like this play quite a bit. The rest factor, which is critical when handicapping NFL games, is definitely in favor of Cleveland. They are coming off their bye week, so they’ve had plenty of time to analyze Detroit’s tendencies. Meanwhile, the Lions are losing one day of preparation after having fought their archrivals in Green Bay on Monday night.
We are also observing a clear sandwich game for Detroit. They have just faced New Orleans, Pittsburgh and Green Bay (all good/rival teams) and they are expecting two divisional rivals next with Chicago and Minnesota. The current game against the Browns is very clearly low in the list of priorities. I can easily see Detroit letting down and struggling to beat such a big spread.
That’s especially true considering the Lions are coming off a critical win at Lambeau Field, where they had lost 24 of their previous 25 meetings. They will need to get their head straight and focus on the Browns very quickly.
At this time, it is unknown who will start at quarterback for the Browns, but who cares? Whether it’s DeShone Kizer or Kevin Hogan, they seem equally bad and I’ll still be taking Cleveland in this game.
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I'm leaning Buffalo, but I'm on Detroit in a blow out. 
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